Waseem Rehmani

 The Next Century: Power, Peril, and the Shifting Global Order -) Executive Summary This report presents a comprehensive forecast of the global geopolitical landscape over the next one hundred years, from 2025 to 2125. It adapts the foundational principles of Paul Kennedy's seminal work, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, to the unique complexities of the 21st century. Kennedy's core thesis—that a great power's military strength is inextricably linked to its underlying economic and productive base, and that "imperial overstretch" can precipitate decline—remains a vital analytical tool.1 However, the nature of that productive base has been irrevocably altered. This analysis introduces a modernized framework that incorporates four new, decisive variables into the traditional power equation: demographic vitality, technological supremacy, climate resilience, and geoeconomic leverage. The next century will not be defined by a simple, linear transfer of power from an incumbent hegemon to a single rising challenger. Instead, the world is entering a period of unprecedented complexity, what this report terms the "Great Divergence." This divergence will be driven primarily by two structural forces: demographic destiny and technological disruption. First, a profound demographic reshuffling is underway. The advanced economies of Europe and, most critically, China, face a future of rapid population aging and demographic decline, which will act as a powerful and persistent drag on their long-term economic potential.3 In stark contrast, nations in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, notably India and Nigeria, are on the cusp of a massive demographic dividend, with burgeoning youth populations that could fuel decades of growth if properly harnessed through investments in human capital and infrastructure.5 The United States stands as a unique outlier among developed nations, with a more stable demographic profile sustained by immigration, a crucial long-term advantage.7 Second, a triad of disruptive technologies—Artificial Intelligence (AI), Biotechnology, and Quantum Computing—is fundamentally reshaping the nature of economic productivity and military power. Leadership in these fields will confer asymmetric advantages, creating new hierarchies of power.9 The competition to control the chokepoints of this technological revolution, such as advanced semiconductors and genomic data, has become a central arena of the US-China rivalry. These forces will play out against a backdrop of two other critical trends: a fracturing global economy characterized by slowing growth, record sovereign debt, and a retreat from hyper-globalization 12; and the escalating climate crisis, which will act as a "threat multiplier," creating new resource scarcities, redrawing the map of energy geopolitics, and testing the resilience of every nation on Earth.14 Based on this analytical framework, this report projects the following trajectory for global power: • To 2050: The world will be defined by a tense bipolar standoff between the United States and China. The US will retain its position as the world's leading power, sustained by its unparalleled innovation ecosystem and financial dominance. China's relative power will likely peak during this period as it confronts the initial stages of its demographic decline. India will emerge as the undisputed third major power. • To 2075: The era of the multipolar scramble will begin. China's demographic winter will have set in, causing its relative power to stagnate or decline and creating a "power vacuum" in Asia. The US will remain a top-tier power, but the world will be far more fragmented. India's influence will continue its ascent, and powers like Indonesia and Brazil will carve out significant regional and global roles. The most significant development will be the emergence of African nations, led by Nigeria, as major demographic and economic players, even if their institutional capacity lags. • To 2125: The global order will be shaped by demographic destiny and climate realities. The world's most powerful nations will be those that possess both demographic vitality and high levels of climate resilience. The US and India are likely to be the world's leading powers. A politically and economically integrated African bloc could emerge as a third superpower. The very definition of power will have evolved, with influence stemming not just from military might but from control over information networks, biological code, critical minerals, and sustainable resources. The coming century will be a period of polycrisis and profound transformation. The unipolar moment is over, and the path to a new global equilibrium will be fraught with competition, conflict, and unprecedented challenges. The nations that rise will be those that can successfully manage their internal economies, foster technological innovation, adapt to a changing climate, and navigate a world that is more contested, fragmented, and uncertain than ever before. Part I: A Framework for the 21st Century - Revisiting 'The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers' To forecast the geopolitical landscape of the next century, one must begin with a robust analytical framework. The timeless principles articulated by Paul Kennedy in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers provide an indispensable starting point. His work meticulously demonstrates the causal link between a nation's economic vitality and its military-strategic standing over the long term.1 However, the forces shaping the 21st century—from demographic collapse and climate change to artificial intelligence and quantum computing—necessitate a significant adaptation of this classic model. This section revisits Kennedy's core logic and expands upon it, creating a composite framework capable of analyzing the novel power dynamics of the coming era. Section 1.1: The Enduring Logic of Geopolitics: Wealth, Power, and Overstretch At the heart of Paul Kennedy's analysis is a straightforward and powerful thesis: a great power's rise and fall is a function of the dynamic relationship between its economic resources and its military commitments.1 He argues that a nation's relative power can only be properly measured against that of its rivals. Throughout history, from the Habsburg bid for mastery in the 16th century to the Anglo-French rivalry and the world wars of the 20th century, victory has consistently gone to the side that could more efficiently mobilize its productive economic resources for war.16 This creates a reciprocal, often cyclical, relationship. As Kennedy states, "wealth is usually needed to underpin military power, and military power is usually needed to acquire and protect wealth".2 A rising power leverages its growing economic strength to build up its military, which it then uses to expand its influence, secure trade routes, and protect its interests. This expansion, in turn, can generate more wealth, creating a virtuous cycle of growth and power projection. Great Britain's rise to naval supremacy, underwritten by its sophisticated financial system, is a prime example of this dynamic in action.2 The critical vulnerability in this cycle is what Kennedy famously termed "imperial overstretch".17 This occurs when a great power's strategic obligations and military expenditures begin to outpace its economic capacity to sustain them. As a power expands, the proportion of its national resources required simply to maintain its position and defend its vast interests grows inexorably.2 If military spending consistently crowds out investment in wealth-creating sectors of the economy, the nation's productive base begins to erode. This leads to what Kennedy describes as a "downward spiral of slower growth, heavier taxes, deepening domestic splits over spending priorities, and weakening capacity to bear the burdens of defense".1 Historically, great powers in relative decline instinctively respond by allocating more resources to security, thus accelerating the very process of their decline by starving the economy of investment.2 This pattern is evident in the collapse of Habsburg Spain, which was militarily top-heavy, and the eventual exhaustion of Napoleonic France and Great Britain after prolonged, costly conflicts.16 It is crucial to understand that overstretch is not an iron law of history but a consequence of strategic choices. Kennedy's analysis is a caution against economic determinism, acknowledging that factors like geography, national morale, and alliances also play a role.2 The decision to prioritize "guns" over "butter" and long-term economic investment is a policy choice made by national leaders.19 This distinction is vital for analyzing the contemporary landscape. For example, while the United States faces the classic dilemmas of a hegemonic power with global commitments, its defense spending as a percentage of GDP has historically been much lower than that of past empires at their peak, such as the British or Roman Empires.21 This suggests the U.S. has possessed greater policy flexibility to avoid the most severe forms of overstretch. Conversely, China's leadership appears to have consciously studied this historical pattern. Deng Xiaoping's "Four Modernizations" program deliberately de-emphasized military spending in favor of agriculture, industry, and science, a strategy designed to build a powerful economic base before embarking on major military expansion.1 This approach, which prioritizes economic development over premature military expansionism, is a modern application of the lessons from Kennedy's work, aimed at avoiding the trap of overstretch that befell the Soviet Union.22 The enduring logic of Kennedy's framework—the primacy of the economic base and the peril of strategic overstretch—thus remains the essential starting point for any long-range geopolitical forecast. Section 1.2: New Variables in the 21st Century Power Equation While the fundamental relationship between economic strength and military power persists, the constituent elements of that strength have been radically transformed in the 21st century. A simple tally of steel production or military manpower, which were critical metrics in past eras, is no longer sufficient to gauge a nation's long-term potential.23 To adapt Kennedy's framework for the next 100 years, we must integrate several new, and in some cases, more decisive, variables into the power equation. Technological Prowess The ability to innovate, adopt, and scale transformative technologies is now the primary multiplier of both economic and military power.23 National power in the 21st century will be increasingly correlated with leadership in a triad of foundational technologies: • Artificial Intelligence (AI): AI is not merely a tool; it is a "force multiplier" that is fundamentally redefining economic productivity, military strategy, and informational warfare.25 The competition between the United States and China has evolved into an "AI arms race," where dominance could confer a decisive asymmetric advantage.9 Militarily, AI enables autonomous weapons systems, sophisticated intelligence analysis, and hyper-efficient command and control. Economically, it drives productivity growth and creates new industries. Geopolitically, it enables sophisticated disinformation campaigns and new forms of hybrid warfare.25 • Biotechnology and Gene-Editing (CRISPR): The bio-revolution presents dual-use implications of profound strategic significance. Economically, mastery of technologies like CRISPR-Cas9 can lead to dominance in agriculture (e.g., creating drought-resistant crops) and medicine (e.g., personalized treatments), creating vast new markets.27 On the national security front, the implications are staggering. The potential exists for human performance enhancement to create "super-soldiers" with augmented physical and cognitive abilities.10 Even more ominously, the convergence of genomics and AI raises the possibility of novel biological warfare agents, including precision pathogens designed to target specific genetic profiles.10 In this new reality, a nation's repository of genomic data becomes a strategic asset of immense value.10 • Quantum Computing: The global race to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer represents a potential paradigm shift in national security. Such a device would be capable of breaking most of the public-key encryption systems that currently protect the world's digital communications, financial transactions, and government secrets.11 This threat, known as "record now, decrypt later," involves adversaries harvesting encrypted data today with the intent of decrypting it once a quantum computer becomes available.32 Achieving "quantum supremacy" would therefore deliver a strategic shock of unparalleled magnitude, making quantum readiness a critical component of long-term national power.33 Climate Resilience A nation's capacity to withstand and adapt to the accelerating impacts of climate change is a new and non-negotiable element of national power. Climate change is no longer a peripheral environmental issue but a primary driver of geopolitical instability and a direct threat to a nation's economic base.15 Key dimensions include: • Food and Water Security: Climate change will intensify droughts, floods, and extreme weather, disrupting agricultural production and threatening water availability.36 Nations unable to secure stable food and water supplies for their populations will face internal unrest and diminished national power.39 • Infrastructure Stability: Coastal cities, ports, and critical infrastructure are increasingly vulnerable to sea-level rise and extreme storms, posing massive economic and security risks.14 • The Energy Transition: The global shift away from fossil fuels is creating a new geopolitical map. The influence of traditional petrostates is set to decline, while a new competition emerges over the critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths—that are essential for batteries, wind turbines, and other green technologies.42 Control over these mineral supply chains is becoming a potent form of geoeconomic leverage.45 Demographic Vitality Beyond sheer population numbers, the critical metric for long-term power is a nation's demographic structure. A favorable profile, characterized by a large and growing working-age population relative to the number of children and elderly dependents, creates a "demographic dividend" that can fuel decades of economic growth.5 Conversely, a rapidly aging population imposes immense fiscal burdens, acting as a structural brake on the economy. This is due to a shrinking labor force, slowing GDP growth, and soaring costs for pensions and healthcare, which divert resources from other national priorities like defense and R&D.3 Geoeconomic Leverage In an interconnected but fracturing world, power is increasingly projected through economic instruments rather than solely through military force. This includes the ability to control critical nodes in global supply chains, dominance in international financial systems, and the strategic deployment of sanctions, tariffs, and trade policy to achieve geopolitical objectives.21 A nation's resilience to economic coercion and its ability to wield such tools against rivals are now central components of its overall power. Section 1.3: Methodology for Power Ranking: A Composite Index for the 21st Century To fulfill the core task of ranking global powers over the next century, a transparent and comprehensive methodology is required. A simple reliance on GDP or military spending is insufficient to capture the multifaceted nature of power in the 21st century. Drawing on established academic approaches to measuring national power 51 and integrating the new variables identified above, this report will utilize a bespoke model: the 21st Century Composite National Power Index (CNPI-21). This index is designed to provide a holistic and relative assessment of a nation's long-term power potential. Kennedy's work consistently emphasizes that power is relative and multidimensional, a principle this index seeks to operationalize.1 The CNPI-21 framework allows for a systematic comparison of nations across the critical domains that will determine their rise and fall over the coming century. The index is composed of five weighted pillars, reflecting the adapted Kennedy framework. Table 1: The 21st Century Composite National Power Index (CNPI-21) Pillar Weight Key Indicators Rationale Data Sources Economic Foundation 35% GDP (PPP), GDP per Capita, National Debt-to-GDP, Trade Diversity, Global Value Chain Position The productive economic base remains the ultimate foundation of all other forms of power, consistent with Kennedy's core thesis. This pillar measures both the scale and the health/sophistication of an economy. IMF, World Bank, OECD 12 Technological Capability 25% R&D Spending (% of GDP), Patents (AI, Biotech, Quantum), Semiconductor Capacity, Top-Tier Tech Universities & Firms Technology is the primary multiplier of economic and military power in the 21st century. This pillar measures a nation's capacity to innovate and lead in foundational, disruptive technologies. Industry Reports, Academic Rankings 27 Military Strength 20% Defense Spending, Power Projection Capability (Naval/Air), Cyber/Space Capabilities, Nuclear Deterrence Military power remains the ultimate arbiter of sovereignty but is increasingly an expression of economic and technological strength, rather than its primary source. Its weighting reflects this role. IISS, SIPRI, Defense Analyses 53 Demographic Vitality 10% Projected Working-Age Population Growth, Dependency Ratio, Median Age, Education Levels (Human Capital) Demographics are a foundational, long-term driver that enables or constrains all other pillars. A vibrant, educated populace is the engine of a dynamic economy and an innovative society. UN Population Prospects 5 Geopolitical Resilience 10% Energy Self-Sufficiency, Food & Water Security, Climate Vulnerability Index, Control of Critical Mineral Supply Chains This pillar measures a nation's ability to withstand the systemic shocks of the 21st century, particularly those related to climate change and resource competition. Resilience is a key determinant of long-term stability. IPCC, IEA, FAO 37 The weighting of these pillars reflects a deliberate strategic assessment. The Economic Foundation receives the highest weight (35%), in direct alignment with Kennedy's emphasis on the primacy of the productive base. Technological Capability is weighted heavily at 25%, reflecting its role as the most significant force multiplier in the modern era, capable of transforming both economic and military outcomes. Military Strength (20%) remains a crucial component, but its slightly lower weighting acknowledges that it is increasingly a derivative of economic and technological power. Finally, Demographic Vitality and Geopolitical Resilience (10% each) are treated as foundational enabling factors. A poor demographic profile or high climate vulnerability acts as a powerful long-term constraint on a nation's ability to generate and project power, while a strong profile in these areas provides a durable advantage. This composite index will be applied at each 25-year interval in this report's forecast, providing a consistent and transparent basis for the power rankings presented in Part IV. Part II: The Unstoppable Forces - Structural Drivers of the Next Century The competition between great powers does not occur in a vacuum. It is shaped and constrained by deep structural forces that operate on a global scale, often over decades or centuries. For the period extending to 2125, four such forces will be paramount: a profound demographic reshuffling, the fracturing of the global economy, the escalating climate crisis, and the relentless pace of technological disruption. These are the unstoppable currents that will carry some nations forward and pull others under, forming the inescapable context for the rise and fall of great powers in the 21st century. Section 2.1: The Demographic Reshuffling: From Dividend to Decline Of all the long-term trends shaping the future, demographics are the most certain and arguably the most consequential. The world is in the midst of a dramatic and divergent demographic transition that will fundamentally remap global power. This is not a uniform trend but a "Great Divergence" that will create clear winners and losers over the next century.58 The Aging Crisis in the Developed World and China The most acute challenge faces the world's current economic powerhouses. Europe, Japan, and most critically, China, are confronting a demographic winter characterized by rapidly aging populations, falling fertility rates, and shrinking workforces.5 According to UN projections, the populations of 61 countries, including China, Japan, and Russia, are expected to fall by at least 14% between 2024 and 2054.59 This demographic shift imposes a severe and compounding brake on economic growth. A shrinking working-age population directly translates to slower GDP growth potential.47 Simultaneously, a rising share of elderly citizens creates immense fiscal pressure, as governments must allocate ever-larger portions of their budgets to pensions and healthcare.48 This dynamic, where the number of retirees grows while the number of tax-paying workers shrinks, is captured by the "support ratio." Globally, this ratio is projected to fall from 6.5 workers per senior today to just 3.9 by 2050, placing unsustainable strain on public finances.3 China's situation is particularly perilous. Due to the legacy of its one-child policy, it is set to "get old before it gets rich." Its population has already peaked and is projected to fall dramatically, potentially losing over 200 million people by 2054 and more than half its current population by 2100.4 This demographic collapse represents the single greatest long-term threat to its superpower ambitions, creating a structural headwind that will be nearly impossible to overcome in the latter half of the century. The Demographic Dividend in the Global South In stark contrast, a different story is unfolding in the Global South. Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia are experiencing a population boom. From 2017 to 2050, it is expected that half of the world's population growth will be concentrated in just nine countries, including India, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Pakistan, and Ethiopia.6 The population of Sub-Saharan Africa alone is projected to nearly double by 2054, reaching 2.2 billion.4 This creates the potential for a massive "demographic dividend," a window of opportunity where a large, youthful, working-age population can drive rapid economic growth.5 However, this dividend is not guaranteed. It can only be realized if these nations make monumental investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and, most importantly, job creation to absorb the 1.2 billion young people who will enter the global workforce over the next decade.5 Failure to do so could turn a potential dividend into a demographic disaster, fueling instability, unemployment, and social unrest. Migration as a Geopolitical Variable These divergent demographic destinies will make international migration an increasingly critical geopolitical factor. Aging, developed countries will face a structural need for migrant labor to fill workforce gaps, support their economies, and sustain their social security systems.8 The United States, unique among its developed peers, has historically benefited from and is projected to continue growing through immigration, giving it a significant long-term demographic advantage.7 For countries in Europe and East Asia, managing migration will become a central political and economic challenge, pitting economic necessity against social and cultural pressures.64 The primary driver of relative power shifts after 2050 will be this "Great Demographic Divergence." In the Kennedy framework, economic power rests on a productive base, and demographics dictate the fundamental size and potential of that base. The UN's projections of a surging population in Africa and South Asia versus a collapsing one in China represent a tectonic shift in the underlying foundations of global power. This trend fundamentally challenges the long-term sustainability of China's superpower status and elevates the potential of nations like India and Nigeria, whose ultimate standing will depend on their capacity to successfully manage this unprecedented demographic opportunity. Section 2.2: The Fracturing Global Economy: Deglobalization and Debt The era of hyper-globalization that defined the post-Cold War world is over. The next century will be shaped by a global economy that is slower, more indebted, and increasingly fragmented. This new reality will act as a universal constraint on the ambitions of all great powers, making the efficient allocation of finite resources more critical than ever before. The End of Easy Growth and the Rise of Protectionism The global economy is entering a period of structurally slower growth. Forecasts from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project that the 2020s will register the slowest pace of average GDP growth of any decade since the 1960s.12 This slowdown is being exacerbated by a retreat from global economic integration. The consensus that once favored open markets and free trade has fractured, replaced by rising protectionism, escalating trade disputes, and heightened policy uncertainty.50 The strategic competition between the United States and China is a primary driver of this fragmentation. Both powers are increasingly using tariffs, export controls, and industrial subsidies to bolster domestic industries and limit their rivals' access to key technologies.68 This "geoeconomic" conflict is disrupting global supply chains and forcing other nations to navigate a landscape of competing economic blocs.70 The result is a less efficient and more volatile global economy, which directly impacts the "wealth creation" component of Kennedy's power equation for every nation.71 The Global Debt Bomb Compounding the challenge of slower growth is an unprecedented level of global debt. Spurred by responses to the 2008 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, global public debt surged past $100 trillion in 2024.13 In many advanced economies, public debt ratios are at or near historic highs.73 This mountain of debt creates a severe long-term constraint on national power. High debt levels force governments into a classic "guns versus butter" dilemma, a central theme in Kennedy's work.1 Rising interest payments consume an ever-larger share of government revenues, crowding out essential public spending.74 A record 61 developing countries now spend more than 10% of their revenue just on interest payments, and for 46 of these nations, interest payments exceed spending on either health or education.13 This fiscal straightjacket limits a state's ability to invest in the very things that generate long-term power: education for its workforce, technological R&D, modern infrastructure, and a capable military. The situation is particularly acute for developing countries, which face higher borrowing costs and have seen a net outflow of resources, paying more to external creditors than they receive in new financing.13 This dynamic traps them in a cycle of debt and underdevelopment, widening the gap with wealthier nations. In this new era, the path to great power status is fundamentally altered. The previous model, where a rising power could ride a wave of rapid global growth to fund its expansion, is no longer viable. The 21st century will not be a contest of who can grow the fastest in absolute terms, but rather who can most effectively manage a slow-growth, high-debt environment. This elevates the importance of factors Kennedy also recognized but which are now paramount: sound fiscal management, high-quality governance, institutional resilience, and the strategic wisdom to avoid wasteful spending and resource misallocation. Nations that master this new discipline of efficient resource allocation will thrive; those that do not will find their ambitions crushed under the weight of their own debt. Section 2.3: The Climate Imperative: A World of Scarcity and Insecurity Climate change is no longer a future threat but a present and accelerating reality that will fundamentally reshape the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. It must be understood not merely as an environmental issue, but as a primary driver of national security, economic stability, and international conflict.14 A nation's ability to adapt to a warming world—its climate resilience—will become a core and non-negotiable component of its national power. Resource Scarcity, State Fragility, and Conflict The physical impacts of climate change will act as a potent "threat multiplier," exacerbating existing vulnerabilities and creating new flashpoints for conflict.14 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides stark warnings of what is to come: more intense and frequent heatwaves, droughts, floods, and storms.36 These events will have devastating consequences for two of the most basic foundations of human security: water and food. Global water scarcity is projected to intensify dramatically. By 2040, as much as 40% of the world's population may face severe water shortages.38 Regions like the Middle East, North Africa, and South Asia are already under extreme water stress, a situation that will only worsen, leading to agricultural collapse, economic instability, and heightened competition over shared water resources like the Nile and Indus rivers.40 Similarly, global food security is under threat. Climate change disrupts crop yields, creates new vectors for pests and diseases, and threatens fisheries, all of which can lead to price spikes, famine, and social unrest.37 These pressures will be most acute in fragile states, potentially leading to state failure and creating permissive environments for terrorism and organized crime.14 The New Geopolitics of Energy and Minerals The global response to climate change—the energy transition—is itself creating a new geopolitical map. The 20th century was largely defined by the geopolitics of oil and gas, which elevated petrostates like Saudi Arabia and Russia to positions of immense influence.82 As the world shifts toward renewable energy, the power of these states is projected to decline, potentially leading to domestic instability in countries whose economies are not sufficiently diversified.84 In its place, a new resource competition is emerging. The technologies at the heart of the green transition—electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and large-scale batteries—are intensely mineral-dependent. This has created soaring demand for a suite of "critical minerals" such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, and rare earth elements.44 The supply chains for these minerals are highly concentrated, creating new dependencies and vulnerabilities.43 China has strategically positioned itself to dominate the processing and refining stages of many of these critical mineral supply chains, controlling between 60% and 90% of the market for most of them.43 This gives Beijing enormous geoeconomic leverage and represents a major strategic vulnerability for the West, prompting the formation of new "mineral security partnerships" and a global race to diversify supply.89 Climate-Driven Migration The long-term impacts of climate change, particularly sea-level rise and desertification, are projected to displace tens, and potentially hundreds, of millions of people.35 Low-lying coastal cities and entire island nations face existential threats, while expanding deserts in regions like the Sahel will render vast areas uninhabitable.15 This will trigger mass migration on a scale not seen in modern history, placing immense pressure on international borders, straining the resources of receiving nations, and creating fertile ground for political instability and conflict. In this new era, the geopolitical map will be redrawn. A nation's power will be determined not just by its military or economy, but by its climate resilience. Countries with high vulnerability to climate impacts will see their power and stability erode. Conversely, nations that control the resources essential for the green economy, or those whose geography makes them less vulnerable to climate extremes, will see their relative influence rise. Climate security will no longer be a niche concern but a central organizing principle of foreign policy and national strategy. Section 2.4: The Technological Disruption: AI, Bio, and Quantum The 21st century is being defined by a technological revolution as profound as the Industrial Revolution. A triad of emerging technologies—Artificial Intelligence (AI), biotechnology, and quantum computing—are not merely creating new tools but are fundamentally altering the nature of economic production, warfare, and power itself. The race to master these technologies is the new "great game," and its outcome will determine the hierarchy of nations for the next century. The Transformation of Warfare and Intelligence AI is driving a paradigm shift toward what China calls "intelligentized warfare".10 This involves the integration of AI into every aspect of military operations, from logistics and surveillance to command and control and autonomous weapons systems.25 The potential for AI-driven systems to analyze information and make decisions at speeds far exceeding human cognition could render traditional military doctrines obsolete and create new, terrifying escalation dynamics.25 The nation that achieves a decisive edge in military AI could gain an asymmetric advantage, potentially making conventional military superiority irrelevant.10 The Bio-Economy and the Power of the Code Biotechnology is unlocking the ability to engineer life itself, with vast economic and strategic implications. Economically, leadership in the bio-economy promises dominance in sectors from agriculture (e.g., genetically modified crops resilient to climate change) to pharmaceuticals (e.g., personalized medicine and rapid vaccine development).27 Strategically, the dual-use nature of this technology is deeply unsettling. The same gene-editing tools, such as CRISPR, that can cure genetic diseases can also be contemplated for more sinister purposes, including the genetic enhancement of soldiers or the creation of novel bioweapons designed to target specific populations.10 This makes the security and control of genomic data a paramount national security concern. The Quantum Threat to the Digital Age The development of a fault-tolerant quantum computer poses a unique and potentially catastrophic threat to the entire digital world. Such a machine would possess the computational power to break the public-key encryption that underpins virtually all secure digital communication today.11 This "quantum apocalypse" scenario would mean that any encrypted data—from financial records and corporate secrets to classified government communications—that has been harvested and stored could be retroactively decrypted.32 The first nation to achieve this capability would hold a master key to the world's secrets, creating a strategic shock of almost unimaginable proportions. This makes the race for quantum supremacy, and the parallel race to develop quantum-resistant cryptography, a contest of the highest possible stakes.33 This technological revolution presents a fundamental paradox for the international system. On one hand, the proliferation of technologies like AI and biotechnology is leading to a "democratization of disruption." The decreasing cost and increasing accessibility of powerful tools mean that smaller states, and even non-state actors, can now wield disruptive capabilities—such as launching sophisticated cyberattacks or creating synthetic viruses—that were once the exclusive domain of great powers.26 This trend points toward a more chaotic and fragmented global landscape, akin to the "World Adrift" scenario envisioned by the National Intelligence Council, where power is more diffuse and threats can emerge from anywhere.93 On the other hand, the foundational elements required to push the absolute frontier of these technologies are becoming ever more concentrated. Developing cutting-edge AI models, fabricating the most advanced semiconductors, and building quantum computers require astronomical capital investment, massive data centers with immense energy consumption, and a highly concentrated pool of elite scientific talent.26 This creates powerful chokepoints in the global technology ecosystem, which are increasingly controlled by a handful of "Big Tech" corporations and the superpowers in which they reside. This tension between the democratization of technological use and the centralization of its most advanced forms of control will define the geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. The intense technological competition between the United States and China is, at its core, a struggle to control these strategic chokepoints and thereby write the rules for the next technological age.9 Part III: The Contenders - Profiles of Key Geopolitical Actors The structural forces of demography, economics, climate, and technology will not impact all nations equally. They will interact with each country's unique geography, political system, and strategic culture to produce divergent long-term trajectories. Applying the adapted Kennedy framework, this section assesses the strengths, weaknesses, and likely futures of the key state actors who will contest for power and influence over the next century. Section 3.1: The Incumbent Hegemon: The United States The United States enters the 21st century as the incumbent global hegemon, possessing a formidable and multifaceted power base. Its long-term trajectory will be determined less by external challengers and more by its ability to manage its internal divisions and effectively marshal its enduring strengths. Strengths: • Unmatched Military and Financial Power: The U.S. maintains the world's most powerful and technologically advanced military, with unparalleled global force projection capabilities.95 Its financial dominance, anchored by the U.S. dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency, grants it enormous structural power over the global economy.96 • Premier Innovation Ecosystem: America's combination of world-leading research universities, deep venture capital markets, and a dynamic entrepreneurial culture creates an innovation engine that remains the envy of the world. This ecosystem has consistently placed the U.S. at the forefront of technological revolutions, from the internet to the current AI boom.56 • Favorable Demographics: In stark contrast to its developed peers in Europe and East Asia, the United States is projected to maintain a relatively stable and growing population throughout the 21st century. This is almost entirely due to its historical and ongoing ability to attract and assimilate immigrants, which provides a continuous infusion of labor and talent, staving off the demographic decline that will plague its rivals.7 • Resource and Geographic Security: The U.S. enjoys a high degree of energy self-sufficiency, is a major agricultural superpower, and is blessed with a geographic position that insulates it from many of the direct land-based threats faced by Eurasian powers. Weaknesses and Challenges: • Political Polarization and Institutional Gridlock: The most significant threat to American power is internal. Deepening political polarization has led to policy instability, institutional gridlock, and a diminished capacity for long-term strategic planning.98 This internal dysfunction erodes international confidence and hinders the nation's ability to respond effectively to global challenges. • Rising National Debt: The U.S. faces a daunting long-term fiscal challenge, with a national debt that has risen to historically high levels.73 While the dollar's reserve status provides significant latitude, ever-increasing debt service costs will eventually constrain public investment in defense, infrastructure, and R&D, creating a slow-burn version of Kennedy's "overstretch" dilemma. • Potential for "Imperial Overstretch": As the incumbent hegemon, the U.S. maintains a vast network of global alliances and security commitments. While these alliances are a source of strength, they also carry immense costs and risks, pulling the nation into regional conflicts and potentially stretching its military and economic resources too thin.1 • Social Cohesion: Widening inequality, cultural divisions, and eroding trust in institutions pose a long-term threat to the social fabric that underpins national power and resilience.97 Long-Term Outlook: The United States is likely to remain the world's most powerful and influential nation through at least 2050. Its foundational strengths in technology, finance, and demographics provide a durable advantage that no other single power can currently match. However, its relative power will inevitably decline as other nations rise, leading to a more contested and multipolar international system. The era of unipolarity is over. The primary determinant of the U.S. trajectory will be its ability to address its internal challenges. If it can overcome its political paralysis, manage its fiscal trajectory, and reinvest in its sources of strength, it is well-positioned to lead in the 21st century. If internal divisions deepen, its capacity for global leadership will erode, not because of a single challenger, but from within. Section 3.2: The Pacing Challenger: China China's rise over the past four decades is one of the most significant geopolitical events of the modern era. It has amassed formidable economic and military power, positioning itself as the primary challenger to U.S. hegemony. However, China is now approaching its own "Kennedy moment," where its long-term structural weaknesses, particularly its demographics, are set to collide with its geopolitical ambitions. Strengths: • Economic Scale and Manufacturing Dominance: As the world's second-largest economy and its preeminent manufacturing powerhouse, China possesses immense economic scale. This has allowed it to fund a rapid military modernization and project economic influence globally through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative.57 • State-Directed Technological Advancement: Through a whole-of-government approach, China has made massive investments in strategic technologies like AI, quantum computing, and biotechnology, aiming to achieve global leadership by 2030.1 This state-led model has allowed for rapid progress in targeted sectors. • Growing Military Power: The People's Liberation Army (PLA) has been transformed into a modern fighting force, increasingly focused on developing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities designed to counter U.S. military intervention in its periphery, particularly concerning Taiwan.100 • Control of Critical Supply Chains: Beijing has executed a long-term strategy to achieve a dominant position in the mining and, especially, the processing of critical minerals essential for the global energy transition. This geoeconomic leverage is a powerful tool of influence.43 Weaknesses and Challenges: • Demographic Collapse: This is China's single greatest and most insurmountable long-term challenge. A rapidly aging population and a collapsing birth rate will lead to a shrinking workforce and a ballooning dependency ratio, creating a powerful structural drag on its economy from which there is no easy escape.4 • Monumental Debt: China's economic growth has been fueled by an unsustainable accumulation of debt, particularly in its oversized real estate sector and at the local government level. This creates systemic financial risk and limits Beijing's capacity for future stimulus.73 • Resource Insecurity: Despite its manufacturing prowess, China is heavily dependent on imports for its energy (oil and gas) and food, creating strategic vulnerabilities that its rivals could exploit in a conflict. • Political System Constraints: While its top-down, authoritarian system allows for rapid mobilization of resources on national priorities, it also tends to stifle the bottom-up innovation, creativity, and adaptability that are crucial for sustained technological leadership and resilience in a complex world.57 Long-Term Outlook: China's relative power is likely nearing its zenith. The period between now and 2050 will be its window of maximum opportunity—and maximum danger. As its demographic and debt problems begin to bite, its economic growth will inevitably slow. This creates a "dangerous decade" scenario, where Chinese leadership, perceiving a closing window of opportunity, might be tempted to use its peak military power to achieve long-standing goals, most notably the unification with Taiwan, before its long-term decline sets in.94 Beyond mid-century, China's trajectory is likely to be one of relative decline as its structural weaknesses become overwhelming. It will remain a major power, but the dream of supplanting the United States as the global hegemon will likely remain out of reach, checked by its own internal contradictions. Section 3.3: The Aspiring Powers: India and the European Union Beyond the central US-China rivalry, two other actors possess the scale and potential to act as major global poles: India and the European Union. However, they face vastly different challenges and are on divergent long-term trajectories. India: • Strengths: India's greatest asset is its demography. It has surpassed China to become the world's most populous nation, and its youthful population promises a massive demographic dividend that could fuel economic growth for decades.6 It is currently the world's fastest-growing major economy and possesses a vibrant and globally competitive technology and services sector.105 As a large, strategically located democracy, it is increasingly viewed by the West as a critical counterweight to China, making it a pivotal "middle power" or "swing state" in the Indo-Pacific.107 • Weaknesses/Challenges: India's potential is constrained by immense developmental hurdles. These include a significant infrastructure deficit, persistent poverty and deep-seated inequality, and shortcomings in human capital, particularly in public health and education.104 Furthermore, its geography makes it highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, including extreme heat, water stress, and disruptions to the monsoon cycle. • Outlook: India is the quintessential rising power of the 21st century. Its trajectory is one of slow, steady, and perhaps inexorable ascent. While it will not challenge for the top spot in the immediate future, its demographic and economic weight will make it an indispensable global player by 2050 and a potential superpower by the end of the century. Its ultimate success hinges entirely on its ability to manage its complex internal development challenges and translate its vast human potential into tangible economic and strategic power. The European Union: • Strengths: The EU's primary strength is its status as a massive, integrated single market, which gives it enormous economic and regulatory power. Through the "Brussels Effect," it sets global standards in areas from data privacy to environmental protection, forcing international corporations and other countries to align with its rules. It also boasts a highly educated populace and a sophisticated technological and industrial base.109 • Weaknesses/Challenges: The EU's geopolitical ambitions are crippled by two fundamental weaknesses. First, like China and Japan, it faces a severe demographic crisis of aging and population decline, which will constrain its long-term economic dynamism.101 Second, its institutional structure, which requires unanimity among 27 member states for major foreign and security policy decisions, leads to internal fragmentation and an inability to act decisively as a unified geopolitical actor.110 Militarily, it remains heavily dependent on the security guarantee provided by the US through NATO.112 • Outlook: The EU will remain a formidable economic and regulatory bloc, a giant in the realms of trade and standards. However, it will struggle to convert this economic weight into coherent geopolitical power. Its relative global influence is set to decline throughout the century, weighed down by its demographic trajectory and its persistent internal divisions. It will be a powerful player, but not a superpower in the traditional sense. Section 3.4: The Wildcards and Regional Powers: Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey The global stage will be increasingly shaped by a dynamic tier of regional and middle powers who will leverage the great power competition to advance their own interests. Their actions will contribute to the fragmentation and complexity of the 21st-century world order. • Russia: Russia presents the classic case of a declining power. Its economy is stagnant, its demographic profile is catastrophic, and its long-term prospects are bleak.114 Its invasion of Ukraine has accelerated its decline, turning it into a pariah state in the West and forcing it into a position of increasing dependency as a junior partner to China.114 Its enduring influence stems almost entirely from two sources: its vast nuclear arsenal, which makes it a dangerous actor even in decline, and its willingness to act as a global spoiler, disrupting the international order.116 Its trajectory is one of managed, but irreversible, decay. • Indonesia and Brazil: These two nations are archetypal "middle powers" of the 21st century. Both are large, populous democracies with significant natural resources and commanding positions in their respective regions.117 Their primary foreign policy goal will be to maintain strategic autonomy, carefully balancing relationships with both the United States and China to maximize economic and security benefits.117 Indonesia's strategic location astride the vital sea lanes of the Indo-Pacific gives it immense maritime potential and geopolitical significance.120 Brazil is a resource and agricultural superpower with the potential to lead on climate and energy issues.117 The rise of both will be significant, but their global influence will be constrained by persistent challenges in domestic governance, infrastructure, and institutional quality.118 • Nigeria and Turkey: These are pivotal regional powers whose influence will be felt far beyond their borders. Nigeria is the demographic giant of a rising Africa. Its population is projected to be among the world's largest by mid-century, giving it immense long-term potential.6 However, this potential is severely hampered by endemic corruption, poor governance, and profound security challenges, including terrorism and inter-communal violence.123 If Nigeria can achieve stability and effective governance, it will become a global power in the latter half of the century; if it fails, it could become a source of massive regional instability.125 Turkey is a classic middle power, leveraging its strategic geography at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Middle East to project influence in multiple directions.126 It will continue to pursue an opportunistic and independent foreign policy, but its ambitions will be perpetually constrained by a volatile economy and complex internal political dynamics.127 Section 3.5: The Continent of the Future: Africa's Collective Potential While analysis often focuses on individual states, it is impossible to project the next century without considering the collective trajectory of Sub-Saharan Africa. The continent is poised to be the epicenter of the most profound demographic and economic shifts of the 21st century.4 Potential: By 2100, Africa will be home to a massive share of the world's youth and working-age population. Nigeria's population alone could approach that of China's by the end of the century.6 This demographic explosion represents an unparalleled source of potential economic growth. Furthermore, the continent holds vast, often untapped, reserves of the critical minerals—cobalt, copper, platinum—that are essential for the global energy transition, making it a key strategic prize in the new resource competition.43 The successful implementation of initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could unlock this potential, creating a vast integrated market and boosting intra-African trade.130 Challenges: The hurdles to realizing this potential are immense. Many African nations are plagued by weak governance, systemic corruption, and political instability.129 The continent is also on the front lines of the climate crisis, facing severe threats from drought, desertification, and food insecurity, which act as powerful drivers of conflict and fragility.14 The challenge of creating hundreds of millions of jobs and building the necessary infrastructure to support its booming population is staggering.62 Outlook: For the foreseeable future, Africa will be a primary arena for great power competition, as the US, China, the EU, India, and others vie for access to its resources and influence over its future.130 The continent's nations will seek to leverage this competition to their advantage, pursuing a strategy of multi-alignment. The central question of the latter half of the 21st century will be whether Africa can overcome its immense challenges to translate its demographic weight into genuine political and economic power. A successful African transformation would fundamentally reorder the globe. A failure to do so could result in instability on a continental scale, with global repercussions. Part IV: The Next 100 Years - Geopolitical Forecasts and Power Rankings This section synthesizes the preceding analysis of the adapted Kennedy framework, structural drivers, and key actor profiles into a series of concrete, time-bound forecasts. For each 25-year interval, a ranking of the Top 10, Middle 10, and Bottom 10 nations is presented, based on their projected standing in the 21st Century Composite National Power Index (CNPI-21). The tables are followed by a narrative analysis explaining the key power shifts and the rationale behind them. The "Bottom 10" focuses on states whose decline, collapse, or chronic instability will have significant geopolitical repercussions. Section 4.1: The World in 2050 (25-Year Horizon): The Bipolar Standoff Solidifies By mid-century, the global order will be unambiguously defined by the strategic competition between the United States and China. While the world is multipolar in its distribution of influence, the contest between these two giants will structure international relations. The US will maintain its position as the leading global power, but its hegemony will be vigorously contested, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. This era represents the peak of China's relative power before its structural demographic challenges begin to impose severe constraints. Table 2: Global Power Rankings, 2050 Rank Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 (Geopolitically Consequential) 1 United States South Korea Russia 2 China Australia Pakistan 3 India Brazil Iran 4 Japan Indonesia Venezuela 5 Germany Turkey Saudi Arabia 6 United Kingdom Canada Egypt 7 France Mexico North Korea 8 Nigeria Vietnam Sudan 9 European Union (as a bloc) South Africa Syria 10 Indonesia Poland Yemen Note: The EU is included as a single bloc to represent its collective economic and regulatory power, though its political and military power remains fragmented. Indonesia appears in both the Top 10 and Middle 10, reflecting its ascent into the top tier by this period. Analysis of Power Shifts by 2050: • The Top Tier: The United States retains the top position due to its enduring advantages in technological innovation (especially in foundational AI and biotech), its global financial dominance, and its more resilient demographic profile.96 China, while possessing immense economic scale, will see the gap with the US cease to narrow as its workforce begins to shrink and its debt burden grows.57 Its power will be formidable but brittle. The most significant change is the consolidation of India as the clear number three power. Its massive and still-growing population and economy will give it a scale that surpasses all other contenders.55 The traditional G7 powers of Japan, Germany, the UK, and France will remain in the top tier but will continue their slow relative decline, hampered by severe demographic aging.101 The new entrants into the Top 10 are Nigeria and Indonesia, whose sheer demographic and economic weight will become undeniable.69 • The Middle Powers: This tier will be dynamic and influential. Countries like Brazil, Turkey, and Mexico will skillfully navigate the US-China competition, practicing multi-alignment to extract benefits from both sides.108 Their role as regional leaders and key players in global supply chains will grow. South Korea and Australia will remain technologically advanced and prosperous but will be increasingly squeezed by the geopolitical pressures in their region. Vietnam is a notable riser, benefiting from supply chain shifts away from China and its own dynamic economy.55 • The Bottom Tier: Russia will have experienced a significant decline. Its disastrous war in Ukraine, coupled with demographic collapse and technological stagnation, will relegate it to the status of a spoiler propped up only by its nuclear arsenal.114 Its economy will be smaller than that of several middle powers. Saudi Arabia and Iran face a difficult future as the world's energy transition accelerates, diminishing the geopolitical leverage of oil.82 Pakistan will continue to be plagued by economic crisis, political instability, and its precarious position between India, China, and a volatile Afghanistan. The remaining states in this tier (Venezuela, North Korea, Sudan, Syria, Yemen) represent zones of chronic instability and conflict, generating refugee flows and serving as arenas for proxy competition. Section 4.2: The World in 2075 (50-Year Horizon): The Multipolar Scramble The third quarter of the 21st century will be the era of the "Great Divergence." The demographic destinies foretold in the early century will have come to pass, fundamentally reordering the global hierarchy. The bipolar standoff will have fractured, giving way to a truly multipolar and more chaotic world. China's long-term structural decline will be undeniable, while the ascent of new demographic powerhouses will accelerate. Table 3: Global Power Rankings, 2075 Rank Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 (Geopolitically Consequential) 1 United States Turkey Russia 2 India Brazil China (Declining) 3 Indonesia Mexico Japan 4 Nigeria Vietnam Germany 5 European Union (as a bloc) South Korea Iran 6 Brazil Egypt Saudi Arabia 7 Pakistan Ethiopia United Kingdom 8 Mexico Canada France 9 Ethiopia Australia Italy 10 Vietnam Democratic Republic of Congo South Korea (Stagnant) Note: The rankings reflect a world where demographic weight becomes a more dominant factor. China and South Korea are noted for their relative decline or stagnation. Analysis of Power Shifts by 2075: • The Top Tier: The United States will likely maintain its position at or near the top, its power sustained by continued technological leadership and its unique ability to refresh its population through migration.7 Its primary peer competitor will no longer be China, but India, whose economy and population will be of a colossal scale. While India's per capita wealth will still lag that of the US, its aggregate power will be immense.104 The most dramatic story is the rise of new powers. Indonesia will have firmly established itself as a top-tier global player, leveraging its demographic size and strategic maritime position.118 Nigeria, the demographic titan of Africa, will enter the top 5, its power potential now too large to ignore.6 The EU bloc remains in the top tier due to its integrated economy, but its individual member states (Germany, UK, France) will have fallen further down the rankings. • The Middle Powers: This tier will be populated by a mix of former great powers and new risers. Turkey and Brazil will be influential, mature middle powers.117 Pakistan, Egypt, and Ethiopia will be demographic heavyweights, their power constrained primarily by governance and resource challenges.6 Canada and Australia, while wealthy and stable, will see their relative influence diminish in a world of demographic giants. • The Bottom Tier: The most significant story here is the precipitous decline of China. Its demographic winter will be in full effect, with a rapidly aging and shrinking population. Its economy will have likely stagnated for decades, and it may face significant internal political stress as the social contract of "growth for stability" frays. It will still possess a large military, but its economic foundation will be crumbling, a classic Kennedy-esque case of a great power in decline.4 Russia will be a shell of its former self, its decline now terminal. Japan and Germany, having failed to solve their demographic crises, will have fallen out of the top ranks of global powers, becoming wealthy but geopolitically secondary nations. Section 4.3: The World in 2100 (75-Year Horizon): Demographic Destiny and Climate Realities By the turn of the 22nd century, the world will be unrecognizable from that of today. The power hierarchy will be almost entirely determined by the two great structural forces: demographic destiny and climate resilience. The nations that thrived in the 20th century will have been largely supplanted by new centers of power from the Global South. The climate crisis will no longer be a future threat but a harsh, daily reality that dictates national strategy. Table 4: Global Power Rankings, 2100 Rank Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 (Geopolitically Consequential) 1 India Mexico China 2 United States Indonesia Russia 3 Nigeria Brazil Japan 4 Pakistan Egypt Germany 5 Ethiopia Turkey United Kingdom 6 Democratic Republic of Congo Vietnam France 7 European Union (as a bloc) Tanzania Italy 8 Indonesia Philippines Spain 9 Brazil Iran South Korea 10 Tanzania Canada Saudi Arabia Note: The rankings are now dominated by demographic heavyweights. The DRC and Tanzania enter the top tier, reflecting Africa's central role. Analysis of Power Shifts by 2100: • The Top Tier: The contest for the top position will be between India and the United States. India's sheer demographic and economic scale will be unparalleled.7 The US will counter with higher per capita wealth, superior technological capabilities, and greater climate resilience. The most profound shift is the rise of Africa. Nigeria will be a bona fide superpower, with a population potentially larger than that of the entire European continent. It will be joined in the top tier by other demographic giants like Pakistan, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Tanzania.4 Their actual power will be a direct function of the governance and development choices they made in the preceding 50 years. If they succeeded in building stable institutions and educating their populations, they will be formidable global players. • The Middle Powers: This tier will consist of the 21st century's new establishment: large, influential nations like Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, and Egypt. They will be the crucial balancers and regional anchors in a highly distributed global power system. • The Bottom Tier: This list is now populated almost entirely by the great powers of the 20th century. China's population may have fallen to half its peak, making it an aging, stagnant nation struggling to support its vast elderly population. It will be a cautionary tale of demographic collapse.7 Russia, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, and Italy will be wealthy, high-income societies but will have become geopolitically marginal due to their shrunken populations. Their influence will be primarily cultural and historical. Saudi Arabia and other petrostates will have seen their primary source of wealth and power evaporate, their fate dependent on how successfully they diversified their economies decades earlier. Climate change will also create a new category of "failed states"—nations rendered uninhabitable by sea-level rise or desertification, whose primary geopolitical impact will be the mass exodus of their populations. Section 4.4: The World in 2125 (100-Year Horizon): A New Global Equilibrium? Forecasting a century ahead is an exercise in strategic imagination, but by extrapolating the dominant structural trends, we can sketch the outlines of a radically different world. The very concept of the nation-state and national power as understood today may have evolved. Power may be more diffuse, held not just by states but by city-state networks, corporate technology blocs, or transnational governance bodies. Table 5: Global Power Rankings, 2125 Rank Top 10 Middle 10 Bottom 10 (Geopolitically Consequential) 1 India Brazil Old Europe (Germany, France, Italy, UK) 2 United States Mexico Russia 3 African Union (as a bloc) Turkey Japan 4 Nigeria Egypt China 5 Indonesia Vietnam Iran 6 Pakistan Philippines Saudi Arabia 7 Ethiopia Canada South Korea 8 Democratic Republic of Congo Australia Spain 9 Brazil Argentina Taiwan 10 Mexico Colombia Netherlands Note: The African Union is included as a potential bloc, representing the possibility of successful continental integration. The rankings are highly speculative and based on the successful management of demographic and climate challenges by the rising powers. Analysis of Power Shifts by 2125: By 2125, the world order will have been completely remade. The leading powers will be those who have successfully navigated the "Great Divergence" and mastered the challenges of the 21st century. • The New Superpowers: India and the United States will likely remain the two most powerful individual nation-states, representing two different models of success: India's based on sheer human scale, and the US based on technological dynamism and adaptive capacity. The most significant potential actor could be a politically and economically integrated African Union. If the continent can overcome its fragmentation and harness its collective demographic and resource wealth, it could emerge as a third superpower bloc on par with India and the US.133 Individual African nations like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the DRC will be great powers in their own right. • The Established Powers: Indonesia will be a mature and powerful state, a lynchpin of the Indo-Pacific. The major powers of Latin America—Brazil and Mexico—will be significant global players, having benefited from their relative insulation from the primary theaters of Eurasian conflict and their resource wealth. • The Faded Powers: The great powers of the 20th century will have completed their long, relative decline. China and Russia will be large but stagnant nations, burdened by their demographic history. The nations of Western Europe and Japan will be prosperous, stable, and highly developed "post-great powers," their global influence primarily historical and cultural. • The Nature of Power: The very definition of power will have shifted. Military strength will still matter, but it will be secondary to the control of the new foundations of prosperity and security. The most powerful entities will be those that lead in sustainable energy production, possess resilient food and water systems, dominate the bio-digital economy, and control the information networks that shape global consciousness. The geopolitical map will be defined less by national borders and more by spheres of technological influence, resource dependencies, and climate resilience. Part V: Conclusion - Navigating the Century of Polycrisis The next one hundred years will be a period of profound and often turbulent transformation. The relatively stable, US-led international order that defined the late 20th century is giving way to a more complex, contested, and fragmented world. The rise and fall of great powers will continue, but the dynamics driving these shifts are new and unprecedented. Navigating this "century of polycrisis"—where demographic, economic, climatic, and technological crises converge and interact—will require a fundamental rethinking of national strategy and international cooperation. Section 5.1: Key Inflection Points and Strategic Risks The long-term forecast presented in this report is not a deterministic prediction but a projection based on powerful structural trends. However, this trajectory could be radically altered by a number of critical inflection points or "black swan" events. Policymakers and strategic planners must remain vigilant for these potential shocks, which could accelerate or reverse the trends identified in this analysis. • Great Power War: The most immediate and high-impact risk is a direct military conflict between the United States and China, most likely over the status of Taiwan. Such a war, occurring within the next 15 years during China's "window of maximum opportunity," would be catastrophic for the global economy, regardless of the military outcome. It would shatter global supply chains, trigger a worldwide depression, and could potentially escalate to the nuclear level, rendering all other long-term forecasts moot. • Internal State Collapse: The internal stability of key authoritarian states is a major uncertainty. A severe economic crisis in China, triggered by a collapse of its property and debt bubble, could lead to widespread social unrest and challenge the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party, potentially leading to fragmentation or a dangerously nationalist and aggressive turn.57 Similarly, the long-term decay of Russia could culminate in a chaotic collapse of central authority, leaving a vast, nuclear-armed territory in turmoil.114 • Technological Singularity or Strategic Surprise: The timeline for transformative technological breakthroughs is highly uncertain. The sudden achievement of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) or a fault-tolerant quantum computer by a single actor—be it a state or a corporation—would represent a strategic surprise of the highest order.11 The entity that first achieves such a capability could gain a nearly insurmountable and permanent advantage over all rivals, instantly reordering the global balance of power. • Irreversible Climate Tipping Points: The IPCC and other scientific bodies have warned of potential climate "tipping points," such as the collapse of the Greenland or West Antarctic ice sheets, the shutdown of major ocean currents, or the widespread dieback of the Amazon rainforest.78 Crossing such a threshold could trigger self-reinforcing feedback loops that lead to abrupt and catastrophic environmental changes on a global scale, overwhelming the adaptive capacity of even the most resilient nations. • Demographic Dividend or Disaster: The future of the Global South, particularly Africa, represents a major bifurcation point. If nations like Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the DRC can successfully manage their demographic booms through effective governance, education, and job creation, they will become the new engines of the global economy.5 If they fail, the result could be state failure, mass instability, and uncontrolled migration on a continental scale, with profound global consequences.62 Section 5.2: Recommendations for Strategic Foresight and Policy This report does not offer specific policy prescriptions for any single nation. Instead, it concludes with a set of high-level strategic principles that all actors should consider as they navigate the uncertain decades ahead. • Prioritize Resilience over Dominance: In a world characterized by systemic shocks and fragmentation, the pursuit of absolute dominance is likely to be a futile and self-defeating strategy, leading to the very "overstretch" that Kennedy warned against. The primary goal of national strategy should shift from dominance to resilience. This means building robust and adaptive systems—economic, social, technological, and environmental—that can withstand and recover from inevitable crises. • Invest in Human Capital as the Ultimate Asset: In an era where demographics are destiny and technology is the key differentiator, the quality of a nation's human capital is its most precious resource. Sustained, large-scale investment in education, skills training, and public health is not merely a social policy but a core national security imperative. The nations with the most educated, healthy, and adaptable populations will be the most innovative and productive. • Manage Technological Competition Through Global Norms: The dual-use nature of AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing makes them too powerful and dangerous to be managed through unrestrained, zero-sum competition alone. While competition is inevitable, it must be coupled with a concerted effort to build global governance structures and norms to mitigate the worst risks.134 This includes developing treaties on the use of autonomous weapons, establishing standards for AI safety, and creating verification regimes for biotechnology to prevent misuse. • Adapt to a Fragmented, Multi-Aligned World: The unipolar and bipolar moments of the past are over. The future is one of messy multipolarity, where regional powers and "middle powers" will play an increasingly influential role, often refusing to align neatly with any single great power bloc.136 Foreign policy must become more flexible, pragmatic, and focused on building ad-hoc coalitions around specific issues rather than relying on rigid, permanent alliances. Understanding and engaging with the interests of this rising tier of middle powers will be essential for any nation seeking to shape the global order. The next century promises no final victories, only a continuous process of adaptation and competition. The rise and fall of great powers will be determined not by a single battle or a single leader, but by the slow, grinding pressures of deep structural forces. The nations that endure and thrive will be those that understand these forces, invest in their fundamental sources of national power, and possess the wisdom and resilience to navigate a world of unprecedented complexity and change. References: 1. The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers - Wikipedia, accessed July 13, 2025, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Great_Powers 2. Review of Paul Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers - R.F.M. Williams, accessed July 13, 2025, https://www.rfmwilliams.com/book-reviews/review-of-paul-kennedy-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-great-powers/ 3. Dependency and depopulation? 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