Yokarasa Kiruththikan

What are the potential effects of global warming on continental Europe The objective of this CEPS Working Document is to summaries different projections of the impacts of climate change on the European Union. Based on a review of various studies, the paper presents the latest evidence on the possible effects of climate change on 11 indicators, thus allowing for conclusions regarding potential, future adaptation measures. While the paper generally focuses on the long-term perspective until well into the second half of this century, key trends beyond (as well as those prior to) 2050 are presented where available. The trends are described primarily in a qualitative manner with quantifications presented where possible. The results presented in this paper are based on a review of the most important recent studies on the impacts of climate change (for a detailed description of references, see Appendix I). The studies reviewed include reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the European Environment Agency (EEA), the European Commission (including the Commission Staff Working Documents accompanying the White Paper on Adaptation) and the Atomic Energy Authority (AEA). The review has also covered the reports, articles and deliverables of selected research projects, including the following EU-funded ones: ADAM, ALARM, ASTRA, ATEAM, cCASHh, CIRCE, CLAVIER, ENSEMBLES, MACIS, MICE, MONARCH, PESETA, PRUDENCE and STARDEX. The final results of some current projects were not available when this paper was finalised; however, the respective organizations and authors were contacted with requests for preliminary findings. The bulk of the final findings from the CECILIA and CLAVIER projects (except those cited in other research reports), as well as a number of papers from other completed projects, remained inaccessible to our research team within the timeframe available for this study. Careful scrutiny of two projects revealed that most of their results were not of use. DINAS-COAST developed a tool for vulnerability assessment to be used in future research. The results of the COCONUT project have been integrated into those of MONARCH and therefore only the latter is cited. This working document does not go beyond the impacts and does not explain how these would be affected by possible adaptation measures.