Waqas Masood

Executive Summary South Sudan carries a political baggage of violence dating back even before independence in 1956. Despite the fact that the country gained independence status in 2011 after reaching the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement followed by decades long two civil wars, the country remains prone to conflict as of today. Ranked sixth among the most violence-prone countries globally, the post-independence era in South Sudan continues to record incline and decline in violent incidents. The current wave of conflicts is inspired by multiple socio-economic, political and environmental antagonists of peace including fragile political landscape; inclining military conscription; proliferation of small arms; mobilized and politicized ethnicity; weak property rights coupled with larger pools of migration returns; massive internal displacements since 2013; rise in human rights abuses; lack of economic diversity; heavy dependence on oil; poor infrastructure; inapt public financial management system; and interruption in planting seasons combined with migration patterns and market networks causing food insecurity. The consequences of conflicts in South Sudan are far reaching. The country observes 3rd highest national death toll resulting from violence within Africa region. The economic costs are equally shocking when the loss of GDP in 2015 incurred by civil wars continued for more than two years was estimated between US$ 8.92 billion and US$ 11.28 billion. The livestock sector takes the big hit of violence in South Sudan. Since the stakes of this sector are higher when it shares 15% of GDP of the country, the losses are anticipated to reach US$ 5 billion approximately if the civil wars persist till 2018. Cattle raiding remains a consistent challenge despite the fact that a slight decline was claimed in post-independence era. As reported in 2013, the incidents of cattle raiding happened in the wake of inter-tribal and intra-tribal conflicts. These incidents were predominantly reported in Jonglei (44%) followed by Unity (15%) and Lakes (14%). In this bleak scenario, the ray of hope is yet to notice in the resistance and empowerment of “anti-fragile” groups and institutions which are represented by camp leaders and focal persons of markets, churches, civil society organizations and women population. Given the limited resources and poor governance, the livestock production seemingly covers a larger chunk of needs for South Sudanese. This includes dowry payment (23.1%), milk and meat production (21.6%), cash income (20.7%), draft power and manure (18.1%), social status (8.3%), and financial gains from skins and hides (2.4%). In rural South Sudan, cattle production serves the purpose of dowry payments and thereby, it is critical for socialization as well. Contrary to past, the current conflicts inflicted drastic impacts on community wealth status. For instance, the mean herd size of better-off households has reduced by 46% and 52% for cattle and shoats (sheep and goats) owning respectively. Similarly, middle-wealth groups own cattle (59%) and shoats (39%) less than before. However, the poor households have seen 10% increase in cattle owning and 5% decrease in holdings of small ruminants. The reason behind why better-off and middle wealth groups had to suffer substantial losses in their livestock assets was wide-ranging raiding targeting large livestock congregations. This was particularly noticed in Unity and Lakes states. Since the poor households owned limited livestock assets, they could manage to migrate to other areas for escaping cattle raiding. Farming in South Sudan is also in decline in current years. With a sharp decrease from 72.7% to 26.7%, the food and crop production reduced substantially causing hike in prices of vegetables, ground nuts, cereals and fruits. Due to ongoing conflicts in the country, the death of food production work forces and major population of the youth joining fighting groups impacted household capacity to produce food. However, this was not the case in Jonglei state where the households sustained farming to cover their livestock losses. The perceptions of livelihoods have changed significantly in the aftermath of current conflicts. Currently, South Sudan regards livestock production as the top choice of livelihood. The second important livelihood is crop cultivation. Fishing has emerged as third choice of livelihood because vulnerable populations prefer to settle in areas close to rivers and swamps. Hunting, food aid, sale of natural products and other activities are ranked subsequently in this series of livelihood choices. It has been noted that income from fishing, and sales of natural products has significantly increased recently. However, the crop production could record only decline in cash income. There are definite impacts of conflict on livestock markets. These conflict-driven markets have not only impacted the capability of livestock producers, and traders but also hampered consumers’ access to livestock products. The factors underlying these negative market dynamics are recognized as insecurity of trade routes, market closures/destruction, lack of demand, exit of traders from conflict-affected areas, and increased live animal imports from Uganda. The increase in animal imports has impacted the pricing competition of local producers followed by inflation. Multiple patterns of forced migrations in an unprecedented number of livestock owners were noticed in the current conflicts. Farming communities in Greater Equatoria, for example, were found to be more concerned about their livelihoods and physical security. Some of these livestock-dependent communities preferred to protect their livestock over food and water. However, the seasonal migrations of livestock herders from Sudan to three states of South Sudan situated at border bear no disruptions in comparison to internal migration patterns. The patterns of livestock disease prevalence and outbreaks in South Sudan reflect on the changing circumstances driven by conflicts. The epidemic cattle diseases include Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP), Trypanosomes, Worms, Blackleg (BL), Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), Anthrax and Botulism, Haemorrhagic Septicemia (HS), and ticks. In comparison to past, the reported outbreaks in current years were relatively fewer. The possibility behind this decline is underreporting of outbreaks due to damaged animal health infrastructure in the aftermath of conflicts. Given these circumstantial discrepancies, there are grounded facts as well- 2014 vaccination and periodical outbreaks of diseases like PPR, LSD, and sheep and goat pox might have caused the gaps in reporting as well. One of the most significant reductions in disease outbreaks was noted for CBPP followed by BL, and HS. The largest reduction in disease outbreaks was noted for PPR in 2014. There was an increase of 19.6% in vaccination of cattle and small ruminants against various diseases in 2015 compared to 2014 data. While considering the indicators of accessibility, availability, affordability and quality of drugs, it was noted that Community Animal Health Workers (CAHW) were the first choice service providers followed by private veterinary drug shops. However, Government service providers and traditional healers were of little value. The emergency vaccines and prophylactic treatment interventions against outbreaks are provided by government veterinary services and CAHW in collaboration with FAO and NGOs. One of the major constraints of livestock production in South Sudan is the prevalence of diseases. This gained crucial significance particularly in 2015 when there was a complete disruption of animal health services after conflicts. Second most important constraint is cattle raiding. Feed and water shortages are ranked as third and fourth major constraints. The lack of livestock shelter should be reevaluated in the light of current conflicts. The low production of cattle is deemed to be correlated with poor nutrition, shelter, and other amenities suggesting the shift of focus for priority interventions. The gaps existing within livestock information systems of South Sudan render further challenges for keeping pace with changing dynamics. Due to inefficient information systems in place, the systematic documentation of the transformation within the sector is almost impossible to record. This impedes decision making capability of stakeholders when they cannot access required information for taking effective measures in a timely manner. Also, the non-availability of any baseline data on livestock production, herd growth and mortality rates leads to guess work which questions accuracy of data. The impacts of natural or man-made disasters on the livestock production could not be evaluated due to absence of information systems for data collection. The cross-border livestock exchanges go unnoticed in the absence of information systems even though these livestock migrations to bordering countries are sizeable. Among these cross-border exchanges, the well-known transactions are livestock migrations from Sudan, live animal imports from Uganda, livestock trade with Kenya, cattle export to Sudan and trade with Ethiopia. Should there be a monitoring mechanism in the presence of information systems, these significant livestock transactions could be evaluated for threats and further opportunities. It is also important to note that the need for information sharing, monitoring and collaboration mechanisms is yet another reminder of how these considerable gaps impact the livestock sector in South Sudan. It has been emphasized recently that the herder’s access to seasonal grazing areas and routes should be reestablished through a reconciliation process. In so doing, their access to critical resources should be ensured by campaigning both at national and state levels. Given the status quo and information gaps, the livestock information system should be set up immediately. This will help to maintain baseline data for national livestock census, herd growth and mortality rates, categorization of livestock wealth groups, mapping of range ecology, migration and livestock market routes, disease patterns, and other important indicators. To track changes on livestock dynamics, the information system will be crucial for early warnings and develop effective measures in a timely manner. A regional coordination mechanism must be chalked out to evaluate further opportunities not only for livestock movements but also for other commodities. This will be significant for launching joint vaccination programs against disease outbreaks. Also, the specific gazing and water problems can be addressed with an appropriate coordination mechanism in place. The cross-border trade will be smooth as well. Given the current conflicts and their impacts on animal health, it is imperative to ensure safe and free movements of animal health professionals and CAWHs so that they can provide services without any interruption. Also, these service providers and professionals should be trained for modern trends in livestock sector of South Sudan. The vaccination campaigns and procedures should be reviewed and the vaccination calendars should be established for each disease type. The allocation of adequate budget and technical support to private animal health delivery systems are next stage interventions. The disease surveillance and reporting systems should be established. Provided the shortage of water in country, the water needs for every community should be determined with considerations for ecology, human and livestock population, periods of seasonal water shortage, and potential sources for water development. The government should co-finance water development programs in collaboration with other public and private stakeholders. The public private partnerships can be useful medium for engagement of the youth in livestock activities. For this purpose, they should be trained and employed. To conclude, the conflicts in South Sudan have proven to be major adversaries in both human development and economy. It is the need of hour to come up with sustainable political solutions for gaining stability, economic growth and improved livestock production. The effective interventions are required in livestock sector to reverse the negative trends in the industry.