Michael Kerr

EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM Home News Tech Finance Leadership Well Education Fortune 500 COMMENTARY· ELECTRIC VEHICLES fl EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility BY PASQUALE ROMANO October 11, 2022 at 9:12 AM PDT fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 1/12 EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM Think back to the year 2007. It may feel like only yesterday, but consider all the things we took for granted then: There was probably a Blockbuster Video nearby, and Nokia and Palm ruled the mobile device space. If you needed a ride, you called a taxi. If you had told most people back then that in a few short years those norms would either disappear completely or dramatically change, they would have probably laughed at you. Of course, we know what happened: 2007 was the same year Netflix began its streaming service and Apple introduced the iPhone, changing both entertainment and communications forever. The same year also saw massive investments in the future of mobility. The company I lead, ChargePoint, began in 2007, a full three years before the first mass-market electric vehicle (EV) hit the road. The founders looked past the noise of the moment and saw the future—one in which all people and goods would use electricity to get from point A to point B. Several of the world’s largest fleets, including Amazon, FedEx, Ingka Group (IKEA), PepsiCo, and UPS, have shared that vision as well, taking up the mantle of climate action by implementing net-zero carbon goals earlier than most other industries. Today, the EV industry may be reaching a tipping point. Last week, PepsiCo announced that it will start using Tesla Semi trucks for deliveries in December. Where are the electric vehicles? fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 3/12 EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM Unlike other technologies and markets, transportation has been slow to evolve. Entrenched interests and old habits are difficult to overcome. For years, automakers said there would be more electric vehicles as soon as there was more consumer demand, but without the cars and supporting charging infrastructure, buyers were slow to materialize. Of course, that meant the medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs) fleets rely on would have to wait even longer. Today, renewed urgency on climate, combined with increased incentives (for both vehicles and charging infrastructure), zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandates, fossil fuel bans, and changing consumer behaviors have finally pushed EVs into the mainstream. That’s creating a momentum for the long-awaited electrification of fleets. The number of zero-emissions trucks (ZETs) available has dramatically increased over the past few years. In 2019, there were 20 models of Class 2b-8 ZETs available for purchase in the United States. In 2021 that number rose 625% to 145 models. It’s expected to increase again this year to 165 models by 2023, according to leading clean-transportation organization CALSTART. From pickups and yard tractors to delivery vans and school buses, fleets are rapidly beginning their electrification journey. The business case for fleet electrification fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 4/12 EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM For fleets, the business case for electrification is becoming much clearer. While the cost of MHDVs is currently higher than comparable diesel counterparts, that’s expected to change this decade as battery prices fall and supply-chain issues are resolved. A 2019 ICF study estimated that the purchase price will drop nearly 50% by the end of this decade, a prediction researchers admitted was “conservative.” However, over time, electric cars, trucks, and buses have the potential to offer lower fueling and maintenance costs and higher driver satisfaction, resulting in lower total cost of ownership (TCO). In fact, fleets that have already electrified have benefited from a TCO 25% lower than their peers. The other obvious benefit is that EV fleets reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 50% or more, helping fleets meet their own ESG initiatives. That’s at the same time consumer demand for fleet services is growing and consumer concerns over the environment and public health are at all-time highs. The tipping point A recent Bloomberg analysis reported that in the U.S., battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) have surpassed 5% of new-car sales, a threshold that signals the tipping point for EV adoption. As fleet vehicles hit the road, look for less tipping and more avalanches. Pent-up fleet electrification will accelerate, followed by another wave of consumer interest as more people are exposed to electric mobility. Fleets will introduce drivers beyond the early adopters to the many advantages of EVs, and the floodgates will open. For instance, workers at a construction site will see the foreman drive up in an electric pickup, enabling them to power their tools without leaving the job site. Parents will wave goodbye to their kids as a quiet, zero-emission bus takes them safely to school. And electric vans will deliver billions of online purchases to millions of consumers. All of this is happening now. The fleet world as we know it is being transformed. fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 5/12 EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM POLITICS SUCCESS Trump’s tariff threats were not taken seriously and markets completely underpriced the risks, Deutsche Bank strategist says BY ELEANOR PRINGLE After offering buyouts to air traf c controllers, Trump administration says they’re exempt from ‘early retirement’ following deadly plane crashes February 3, 2025 BY SASHA ROGELBERG Gen Z are over having their work ethic questioned: ‘Most boomers don’t know what it’s like to work 40+ hours a week and still not be able to afford a house’ February 3, 2025 BY ORIANNA ROSA ROYLE fi FINANCE February 3, 2025 Related Articles LEADERSHIP R E TA I L MAGAZINE Which issues will be top of mind for leaders in Overdone price hikes, the demise of ‘quiet Most people are unhappy with today’s fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 10/12 2025? AI, of course, but it’s just the beginning EV adoption has reached a tipping point. Here’s how today’s electric eets will shape the future of mobility | Fortune luxury,’ and sluggish European tourism— here’s what Bank of America expects will shape luxury in 2025 BY FORTUNE EDITORS January 29, 2025 fl 2/5/25, 9:45 AM business leaders. New CEOs could bring change BY ALYSON SHONTELL January 30, 2025 BY PRARTHANA PRAKASH January 17, 2025 C O M M E N TA R Y NEWSLETTERS SUCCESS EV adoption will surge— take it from someone leading a battery tech startup after 17 years at GM New Bain global managing partner predicts what it will take for gen AI to reach its ‘tipping point’ Marc Benioff says that from now on CEOs will no longer lead all-human workforces—enter the new era of AI coworkers BY PAM FLETCHER BY PETER VANHAM AND NICHOLAS BY EMMA BURLEIGH November 13, 2024 GORDON January 24, 2025 July 3, 2024 fl https://fortune.com/2022/10/11/ev-adoption-tesla-semi-tipping-point-electric- eets-future-mobility-pasquale-romano/ 11/12