Kristin Godwin

CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study Elections serve as the foundation of democracy, allowing citizens to choose their leaders and participate in governance. However, in many parts of Nigeria, including Rivers State, election rigging has become a major challenge, undermining democratic principles and fostering political instability. Rivers State, located in the Niger Delta region, has a long history of electoral violence, vote-buying, ballot box snatching, and result manipulation. These issues have led to political unrest, loss of public confidence in the electoral system, and in some cases, violent conflicts. Over the years, Rivers State has witnessed high levels of electoral fraud, often accompanied by violence and intimidation. The 2015 and 2019 general elections in the state for example, were marred by allegations of vote rigging (discrepancies on the number of accredited voters and the votes declared for the winning candidate), voter suppression, and security forces interfering in the electoral process. These irregularities have contributed to post-election protests, political assassinations, and heightened ethnic and party tensions. Despite various electoral reforms and the intervention of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), election rigging remains a persistent issue. Manipulation of electoral processes often leads to political instability, as the lack of credible elections undermines government legitimacy and fosters unrest. Electoral violence in Rivers State has been prevalent with elections described as "wars" due to the intensity of conflicts among political actors. The 2023 gubernatorial election exemplified this, characterized by a proxy battle between major political figures, leading to a highly fragmented and contentious political environment. Historically, the root of violence in Rivers State can be traced to the corrupt, violent, and unaccountable nature of politics in the region. The state's substantial oil wealth increased the financial stakes of political office, leading politicians to employ armed gangs to rig elections. While substantial literature exists on electoral fraud and political instability in Nigeria, specific studies focusing on Rivers State are limited. Further research is needed to explore the unique socio-political dynamics of Rivers State, including the role of local political actors, security agencies, and civil society in either perpetuating or mitigating election rigging and political instability. Understanding the link between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State is crucial for improving Nigeria’s democratic process. The frequent election-related violence in the state threatens governance, economic development, and social cohesion. This study will provide insights into the root causes of election fraud in Rivers State, the role of political actors, and the consequences of electoral malpractice. The findings will be valuable for policymakers, security agencies, and electoral bodies in designing strategies to ensure free and fair elections. Several scholars have examined election rigging in Nigeria, with a focus on its effects on democracy and governance. Okonkwo (2020) highlighted how electoral fraud fuels political instability by creating a sense of injustice among the electorate. Similarly, Adeyemi and Johnson (2019) argue that the use of security forces to intimidate voters and opposition candidates exacerbates political tensions. Studies on Rivers State, such as Nwankwo (2021), emphasize that electoral violence is driven by a combination of political rivalry, ethnic divisions, and the high stakes of winning political office. However, more research is needed to identify practical solutions to mitigate election fraud and its consequences in the state. Election rigging remains a major threat to democracy and stability in Rivers State. By analyzing its causes and consequences, this study will provide useful recommendations for ensuring credible elections. Strengthening electoral integrity is essential for promoting peace, good governance, and sustainable development in the state and Nigeria as a whole. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Elections are a critical aspect of democracy, ensuring that leaders are chosen based on the will of the people. However, in Rivers State, election rigging has become a persistent issue, undermining democratic governance and contributing to political instability. Reports from election monitoring groups have documented widespread electoral fraud, including vote-buying, ballot box snatching, voter suppression, and result manipulation. The 2015 and 2019 general elections in Rivers State were particularly controversial, marked by violence, the deployment of security forces to intimidate voters, and allegations of compromised electoral process (Adebayo, (2015), Ezeamalu (2015), and Onuh (2022). The consequences of such electoral malpractices extend beyond immediate political outcomes, contributing to a cycle of violence and instability. Politicians have been known to arm and employ criminal gangs to influence election results, leading to post-election violence and a proliferation of armed groups. This environment not only threatens the safety and security of residents but also hampers socio-economic development by deterring investment and perpetuating poverty. The state's substantial oil wealth, intended to benefit the populace, has instead intensified political competition, as control over state resources becomes a coveted prize, further entrenching corrupt practices and violent power struggles. Another consequences of election rigging in Rivers State are severe, leading to a loss of public confidence in the electoral system, increased political violence, and the deepening of ethnic and party divisions. Political instability in the state has resulted in protests, destruction of property, and in some cases, loss of lives. Despite electoral reforms by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and efforts to strengthen the democratic process, election malpractice remains prevalent, raising concerns about the credibility of future elections in the state.The persistent issue of election rigging in Rivers State, Nigeria, has led to significant political instability, undermining democratic principles and fostering a culture of violence and corruption. This problem is deeply rooted in the state's political landscape, where electoral processes are frequently compromised through tactics such as voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, and manipulation of results. For instance, during the 2015 presidential election, Rivers State reported the highest number of violent incidents, including voter intimidation and ballot box snatching, leading to disputes over the legitimacy of the election outcomes. While previous studies have examined electoral fraud in Nigeria, limited research has focused on the specific case of Rivers State, where election rigging has unique political, economic, and social implications. There is a need to investigate the root causes of electoral malpractice in the state, analyze its impact on political stability, and propose effective measures to enhance electoral integrity, addressing this problem requires a multifaceted approach, including electoral reforms to ensure transparency and fairness, strengthening of legal frameworks to hold perpetrators accountable, and socio-economic initiatives to alleviate poverty and reduce the allure of political thuggery. Addressing this problem requires a multifaceted approach, including electoral reforms to ensure transparency and fairness, strengthening of legal frameworks to hold perpetrators accountable, and socio-economic initiatives to alleviate poverty and reduce the allure of political thuggery. Without such interventions, the cycle of election rigging and political instability is likely to persist, undermining democratic governance and the well-being of citizens in Rivers State This study aims to bridge that gap by providing insights into the relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State, ultimately offering recommendations for fostering a more credible and democratic electoral process. 1.3 Aim and Objectives of the Study The aim of this study is to examine election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. The specific objectives of the study include: 1. To examine the nature and forms of election rigging in Rivers State 2. To examine the impact of election rigging on political stability in Rivers State 3. To investigate the role of political actors and institutions in election rigging 4. To propose strategies for reducing election rigging and enhancing political stability in Rivers State 1.4 Research Questions 1. What is the nature and forms of election rigging in Rivers State? 2. How does election rigging impact political stability in Rivers State? 3. What roles do political actors and institutions play in election rigging in Rivers State? 4. What strategies can be recommended for reducing election rigging and enhancing political stability in Rivers State? 1.5 Research Hypothesis Hypothesis 1 H₀: Political actors and institutions do not play a significant role in election rigging in Rivers State. H₁: Political actors and institutions play a significant role in election rigging in Rivers State. Hypothesis 2 Ho: There is no significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State H1: There is a significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State 1.6 Significance of the Study Election rigging remains a critical challenge to democratic governance in Rivers State, Nigeria. The manipulation of electoral processes has led to political instability, weakening public trust in democratic institutions. This study is significant as it seeks to analyze the nature of election rigging, its consequences on political stability, and strategies for improving electoral integrity. This research will be beneficial to the following stakeholders: • Policymakers and Government Officials: The study will provide insights into the causes and consequences of electoral fraud, helping policymakers design better electoral laws and governance strategies. • Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC): The findings will help INEC identify challenges in election management and recommend measures to strengthen the credibility of electoral processes. • Political Parties and Candidates: By examining the role of political actors in election rigging, this study will promote fair competition and accountability in the electoral system. • Security Agencies: The study will highlight the role of security forces in election monitoring and suggest ways to prevent their misuse in electoral manipulation. • Civil Society Organizations and Election Observers: Advocacy groups can use the research findings to push for electoral reforms and educate voters on their rights. • Academics and Researchers: This study will contribute to the body of knowledge on election rigging and political instability, serving as a foundation for future research. • Addressing Socio-Economic Implications: Political instability resulting from election rigging can deter investment and hinder economic development. By addressing these issues, the study indirectly contributes to creating a more favorable environment for economic growth and social progress in Rivers State. • Fostering National Cohesion: Insights from this research can aid in understanding how electoral malpractices contribute to broader national tensions. Addressing these issues at the state level can have positive ripple effects on national unity and cohesion. • Enhancing Democratic Integrity: By investigating the mechanisms and consequences of election rigging, this study aims to reinforce the integrity of democratic processes in Rivers State. Understanding these malpractices is essential for developing strategies to ensure free and fair elections, thereby strengthening the foundation of democracy in the region. By addressing the root causes of election rigging and its effects on political stability, this study will contribute to strengthening democratic institutions in Rivers State and Nigeria. Its recommendations will help foster free, fair, and credible elections, ensuring long-term political and social stability. 1.7 Scope of the study This study focuses on the issue of election rigging and its impact on political instability in Rivers State, Nigeria 1.8 Limitation of the Study Data Availability and Accessibility: Future challenges may arise in obtaining official electoral records, as some data may be classified or unavailable for public access. Efforts will be made to rely on credible secondary sources and firsthand accounts. Time Constraints: Given the dynamic nature of political events, future studies may need to extend the research period to capture evolving electoral trends and political developments. 1.9 Operational Definition of Terms Democracy: Democracy may be defined as a system of government in which all qualified adult citizens share the supreme power directly or through their elected representatives. Election: It can be defined as an act of choosing or selecting candidates who will represent the people of a country in the parliament and in other positions in the government. Rigging: Rigging refers to the act of manipulating or tampering with a process, system, or competition to unfairly influence its outcome. Instability: Instability refers to the quality or state of being unstable, characterized by a lack of stability or firmness, and a tendency to unpredictable or erratic behavior. Election Rigging: This refers to electoral malpractice committed with corrupt, fraudulent or sinister intention to influence an election in favour of a candidate by such means as illegal voting, bribery, threats, undue influence intimidation and other acts of coercion exerted on voters, falsification of results, and fraudulent announcement of a defeated candidate as winner without altering the results. Electoral Violence: Acts of physical force, intimidation, or coercion employed to influence the electoral process, deter voter participation, or alter election outcomes. In Rivers State, elections have been described as "wars" due to the intensity of conflicts among political actors, with reports of armed confrontations and attacks on political opponents. Communal Conflicts: Disputes and violent clashes between different community groups, often arising from competition over resources, political representation, or cultural differences. In Rivers State, communal conflicts have been exacerbated by governance failures and have contributed to the overall political instability in the region. Cultism: The practice of engaging in secretive and often violent activities by organized groups, commonly referred to as cults or gangs. In Rivers State, cultism has been linked to political instability, as politicians have been known to arm and employ these groups to influence election results, leading to post-election violence and a proliferation of armed groups. These operational definitions provide a framework for understanding the specific manifestations of election rigging and political instability in Rivers State, facilitating a more focused analysis of their causes, effects, and potential solutions. CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical Framework The study on election rigging and political instability in Rivers State is guided by two key theoretical perspectives: Elite Theory and Structural Violence Theory. These theories provide insight into the underlying factors that enable electoral fraud and its impact on political stability. 2.1.1 Elite Theory Elite Theory, as developed by scholars like Gaetano Mosca (1939), Vilfredo Pareto (1963), and C. Wright Mills (1956), posits that political power is concentrated in the hands of a small group of elites who manipulate democratic processes to maintain their dominance. This theory asserts that democracy does not function as an open and competitive system, but rather as an arena where political elites dictate outcomes to serve their interests. In the context of Rivers State, Elite Theory provides a critical framework for understanding the persistent problem of election rigging and its contribution to political instability from 2015 to 2023. Elections in Rivers State have been characterized by widespread electoral malpractices orchestrated by political elites. Scholars such as Ayoade (2018) and Omotola (2019) argue that political godfathers exert significant influence over electoral processes by selecting candidates, mobilizing state resources, and suppressing opposition. This form of elite dominance is evident in practices such as vote buying, ballot box snatching, voter suppression, and collusion with security agencies (Osumah & Aghemelo, 2019). These tactics ensure that power remains within a closed circle of elites, undermining the democratic principle of free and fair elections. During the 2015 and 2019 general elections in Rivers State, reports from scholars like Ojo (2021) and Egobueze & Ojirika (2022) highlight that political elites deployed violence and electoral fraud to maintain control. The European Union Election Observation Mission (EUEOM, 2019) and the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD, 2020) documented cases where security agencies were used to intimidate voters and opposition parties, a pattern consistent with Elite Theory’s argument that those in power manipulate state institutions for their advantage. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was also accused of complicity in these fraudulent practices, further reinforcing the notion that elites control electoral institutions (Jega, 2020). The consequence of elite dominance in elections is political instability. As Diamond (2015) and Smah (2020) contend, when elections are rigged, citizens lose trust in democratic institutions, leading to protests, legal battles, and violent confrontations. Rivers State has experienced numerous election-related crises, particularly during the 2015 and 2019 elections. According to Obi (2018), post-election violence in the state often stems from frustrations among marginalized political actors and disenfranchised voters who perceive the system as rigged against them. Furthermore, election rigging in Rivers State has fueled political thuggery and militancy. Dode (2017) and Okeke (2021) argue that political elites recruit and arm young men to serve as enforcers during elections. These groups, initially mobilized for electoral purposes, later evolve into criminal gangs that contribute to long-term instability. The rise in cult-related violence in Rivers State post-2015 can be linked to this phenomenon (Akinola, 2020). Thus, election rigging does not only determine who governs but also perpetuates cycles of violence and insecurity. Elite Theory remains a crucial analytical tool for understanding election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. It explains why, despite democratic reforms and electoral laws, elections continue to be manipulated by a privileged class. As Pareto (1963) asserts, elites do not relinquish power voluntarily; rather, they continuously adapt strategies to maintain their dominance. This perspective helps explain why reforms such as the Electoral Act (as amended in 2022) have not significantly altered the nature of elections in Rivers State (Nwafor-Orizu, 2023). Additionally, Elite Theory provides insight into the role of state institutions in perpetuating electoral fraud. Scholars like Omodia & Egwemi (2022) argue that institutions such as INEC, security agencies, and the judiciary often serve the interests of elites rather than the electorate. This aligns with Mills’ (1956) argument that a small ruling class controls both political and economic power, shaping governance outcomes to their advantage. Moreover, the theory is relevant in explaining the resilience of electoral violence. As Osaghae (2021) notes, elite competition in Nigeria often results in zero-sum politics, where the winner takes all and the loser is completely excluded from power. This fuels desperation among political actors, leading to heightened electoral violence. In Rivers State, political elites have historically used violence as a tool for maintaining or contesting power (Ajayi, 2019). 2.1.2 Structural Violence Theory The Structural Violence Theory, developed by Johan Galtung (1969), provides a compelling framework for analyzing election rigging and political instability in Rivers State from 2015 to 2023. Structural violence refers to systematic inequalities and institutionalized oppression that deny individuals access to political, economic, and social opportunities. Unlike direct violence, which is physical, structural violence operates subtly through political institutions, economic structures, and social norms, creating conditions that breed conflict and instability. In the context of Rivers State, election rigging is a manifestation of structural violence, as it systematically denies citizens the right to freely choose their leaders, concentrates power in the hands of elites, and fuels political instability. Election rigging in Rivers State is not merely an isolated political malpractice but part of a broader structure that entrenches elite dominance while marginalizing ordinary citizens. Scholars like Ake (1996) and Omotola (2010) argue that election rigging in Nigeria is rooted in structural inequalities, where state institutions are controlled by political elites who manipulate electoral processes to maintain power. In Rivers State, elections have consistently been marred by voter suppression, ballot box snatching, vote buying, and the deployment of security forces to intimidate opposition supporters (Egobueze & Ojirika, 2022). The 2015 and 2019 elections witnessed significant levels of violence and irregularities, with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) canceling results in several areas due to widespread fraud (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2019). These actions systematically disenfranchise voters, making elections a mere formality rather than a true democratic exercise. The persistence of election rigging in Rivers State creates a cycle of political instability, as aggrieved groups who feel excluded from the political process often resort to protests, legal battles, and, in extreme cases, violence. According to Obi (2018), structural violence in electoral politics fosters a culture of resistance, where marginalized political actors, denied access to power through legitimate means, mobilize supporters to challenge the status quo. The post-election violence in Rivers State following the 2015 and 2019 elections exemplifies this dynamic. Rival political groups clashed, leading to loss of lives and destruction of property, as opposition parties accused the ruling elites of manipulating the electoral process (CDD, 2020). The use of state security agencies to suppress protests further deepens political tensions, reinforcing the perception that the system is rigged in favor of the powerful. Moreover, structural violence manifests in the militarization of elections in Rivers State. Scholars such as Dode (2017) and Akinola (2020) highlight how political elites recruit and arm young men to act as enforcers during elections, a practice that has long-term destabilizing effects. During the 2019 elections, for instance, armed thugs disrupted voting in several local government areas, leading to the suspension of elections in parts of the state (Ojo, 2021). These armed groups, initially used for electoral purposes, often evolve into criminal gangs that contribute to prolonged insecurity. The rise of cult-related violence in Rivers State post-2015 can be traced to this pattern, as many of the armed groups used during elections later became involved in kidnappings, assassinations, and inter-communal clashes (Ajayi, 2019). Structural violence also explains why election rigging persists despite electoral reforms. As Galtung (1990) argues, structural violence is self-perpetuating because those who benefit from it have little incentive to change the system. In Rivers State, political elites manipulate institutions such as INEC, the judiciary, and security agencies to serve their interests (Jega, 2020). For example, while electoral laws have been amended to enhance transparency, their implementation remains weak due to elite interference (Nwafor-Orizu, 2023). The lack of accountability for electoral offenses further emboldens politicians to continue manipulating elections without fear of repercussions. This entrenched impunity sustains political instability, as opposition groups and disenfranchised citizens lose faith in democratic institutions, leading to continuous cycles of contestation and conflict. Another dimension of structural violence in Rivers State’s elections is the economic exclusion it reinforces. Scholars like Osumah & Aghemelo (2019) argue that election rigging consolidates power in the hands of a few, who then control state resources to the detriment of the broader population. In Rivers State, the political elite’s grip on power ensures that government contracts, appointments, and economic opportunities remain within their networks, marginalizing those outside the ruling class. This economic disparity fuels resentment and increases the likelihood of electoral violence, as excluded groups see elections not just as political contests but as battles for economic survival. The desperation to access power and resources through any means, including violence, further destabilizes the political landscape. The application of Structural Violence Theory to election rigging and political instability in Rivers State from 2015 to 2023 reveals that the problem is deeply embedded in systemic inequalities and elite domination. Elections are rigged not simply because of individual acts of fraud but because the political structure itself is designed to exclude certain groups while favoring others. This exclusion leads to voter disenfranchisement, electoral violence, and long-term insecurity, as marginalized actors challenge the legitimacy of the system. Unless fundamental structural reforms are undertaken—such as strengthening electoral institutions, holding perpetrators of electoral fraud accountable, and addressing economic inequalities—Rivers State will continue to experience political instability driven by electoral manipulation and structural violence. 2.2 Conceptual Review 2.2.1 Concept of Election Rigging Election rigging refers to a deliberate and systematic attempt to manipulate electoral outcomes through fraudulent means, often aimed at securing an unfair advantage for a particular candidate or political party (Diamond, 2019). It includes a broad range of illicit practices such as ballot box stuffing, multiple voting, vote buying, falsification of results, and voter intimidation. These actions distort the democratic process by undermining the credibility of elections and depriving citizens of their right to freely choose their leaders (Omotola, 2020). The prevalence of election rigging in many developing democracies, including Nigeria, has continued to weaken democratic consolidation and fuel political unrest. Nigeria has experienced widespread election rigging since its return to democracy in 1999, with Rivers State being one of the most affected regions (Jega, 2021). The state's strategic political and economic significance, largely due to its vast oil wealth, has made elections highly competitive and contentious. Political actors employ various rigging tactics, including voter suppression and collusion with security agencies, to ensure victory at all costs (Duruji et al., 2020). These actions contribute to post-election disputes, legal battles, and violence, further diminishing public confidence in the electoral system. The methods of election rigging in Rivers State and Nigeria at large have evolved over the years, with increasing sophistication. Initially, electoral malpractices were primarily limited to physical acts such as ballot box snatching and stuffing. However, with advancements in technology, new forms of electoral fraud have emerged, including electronic vote manipulation, hacking of election databases, and falsification of voter registration lists (Ojo, 2021). These emerging threats underscore the urgent need for electoral reforms and the adoption of more transparent and technologically secure voting systems. Election rigging not only undermines the legitimacy of elected officials but also has severe implications for governance and policy-making. Leaders who assume power through fraudulent means often lack the moral authority to govern effectively, leading to widespread public disillusionment and lack of accountability (Ogundiya, 2019). When electoral outcomes do not reflect the true will of the people, citizens become disengaged from the political process, further weakening democratic institutions and fostering apathy towards governance. Moreover, electoral fraud contributes to political instability by fueling tensions among political parties and their supporters. In Rivers State, allegations of rigging in the 2015, 2019, and 2023 elections led to violent confrontations, loss of lives, and destruction of property (Human Rights Watch, 2017). Such incidents demonstrate that election rigging not only disrupts the democratic process but also poses a direct threat to peace and security. To address this challenge, there is a need for stronger electoral laws, independent oversight bodies, and more effective law enforcement mechanisms to deter electoral malpractices and uphold democratic integrity. 2.2.1.1 Methods of Election Rigging in Rivers State Ballot Box Snatching and Stuffing One of the most prevalent forms of election rigging in Rivers State is ballot box snatching and stuffing. This practice involves the forceful seizure of ballot boxes from polling units, usually by armed political thugs, who then alter the contents to favor a particular candidate or party (Agbaje, 2019). These incidents often lead to violent clashes between rival party supporters and security agencies, thereby undermining the integrity of the electoral process. In many cases, voters flee polling stations due to fear of violence, leading to widespread disenfranchisement and compromised election outcomes (Omotola, 2021). The 2015 gubernatorial election in Rivers State was particularly marked by ballot box snatching and stuffing, with reports of heavily armed men storming polling units and hijacking election materials (Human Rights Watch, 2017). These activities led to post-election disputes, with opposition parties and civil society organizations demanding the cancellation of results in certain areas. Similarly, in the 2019 elections, multiple cases of ballot snatching were reported across local government areas, further casting doubt on the credibility of the election process (INEC, 2019). Beyond disrupting the democratic process, ballot box snatching and stuffing have long-term consequences for political stability in Rivers State. The lack of accountability for perpetrators encourages a cycle of electoral violence, where each election season witnesses an escalation in tactics used to manipulate outcomes (Jega, 2020). The inability of law enforcement agencies to curb this practice erodes public trust in democracy and governance, leading to political apathy among citizens. Addressing this issue requires a stronger security presence at polling stations, voter education programs, and the deployment of electronic voting systems to reduce human interference in the voting process (Duruji et al., 2020). Vote Buying Vote buying has become a deeply entrenched practice in Nigeria’s elections, particularly in Rivers State, where financial inducements play a significant role in determining electoral outcomes. Politicians and their agents often distribute cash, food items, and material incentives to voters in exchange for their support (Ojo, 2021). This practice is facilitated by weak law enforcement and the absence of stringent penalties for electoral malpractices. Vote buying not only distorts the electoral process but also promotes a culture of corruption, as politicians who gain power through financial inducement often prioritize personal enrichment over good governance (Ayoade, 2018). Studies indicate that vote buying is more prevalent in regions with high levels of poverty and unemployment, where voters see immediate economic benefits as more valuable than long-term democratic principles (Nwosu, 2023). In Rivers State, the monetization of elections is particularly evident in rural areas, where politicians exploit economic hardship to secure votes. During the 2019 general elections, reports emerged of party agents openly distributing money to voters near polling units, with some voters admitting they had been paid to vote for specific candidates (INEC, 2019). The consequences of vote buying are far-reaching. It weakens democratic institutions by prioritizing financial power over public trust and credibility. Additionally, leaders who secure their positions through vote buying often feel less accountable to the electorate, leading to poor governance and widespread disillusionment among citizens (Jega, 2020). To curb this practice, electoral bodies must implement stricter monitoring mechanisms, impose harsher penalties on offenders, and enhance voter education programs to discourage citizens from participating in transactional politics (Duruji et al., 2020). Voter Suppression and Intimidation Voter suppression and intimidation have remained significant barriers to free and fair elections in Rivers State. Political actors and security agencies often deploy tactics aimed at discouraging voter participation, particularly in opposition strongholds (Omotola, 2021). These methods include physical violence, the deployment of heavily armed personnel to polling units, and the strategic relocation of polling stations to inaccessible areas. Such actions violate the fundamental rights of citizens to participate in the democratic process and further deepen political disenfranchisement. Reports from election observers indicate that during the 2019 general elections, armed groups affiliated with political parties disrupted voting in several local government areas in Rivers State (INEC, 2019). Incidents of voter intimidation were also reported in the 2023 elections, where security personnel allegedly harassed voters and prevented them from accessing polling units in certain communities (Human Rights Watch, 2023). These forms of voter suppression not only reduce turnout but also create a hostile electoral environment where many citizens fear for their safety. The impact of voter suppression extends beyond individual elections, as it erodes public confidence in the electoral system and weakens democracy (Dode, 2018). When citizens believe that their votes will not count due to coercion and manipulation, they become disengaged from the political process. Addressing voter suppression requires a multi-pronged approach, including legal reforms to criminalize voter intimidation, increased transparency in security deployment during elections, and stronger oversight by election monitoring bodies (Jega, 2020). Manipulation of Election Results The manipulation of election results is one of the most severe forms of electoral malpractice in Rivers State. This occurs at collation centers, where electoral officers, often under pressure from political actors, alter vote counts to favor a particular candidate (Jega, 2020). Such manipulation undermines the credibility of the electoral process and fosters political instability, as opposition parties often challenge the legitimacy of declared winners. The 2023 elections in Rivers State were marred by accusations of result falsification, leading to legal battles and mass protests by opposition groups (Nwosu, 2023). One of the most common methods of result manipulation is the inflation of votes in favor of certain candidates while reducing those of their opponents. This is often achieved through the falsification of figures on result sheets, the destruction of genuine ballots, and the refusal to transmit results electronically despite legal requirements (Ojo, 2021). Observers have noted that collation centers are particularly vulnerable to manipulation due to their lack of transparency and the influence of political pressure on electoral officials (INEC, 2019). Result manipulation has serious implications for democratic governance. It breeds public distrust in the electoral system, fuels post-election violence, and creates a cycle of disputed elections that destabilizes governance (Omotola, 2021). To combat this issue, there is a need for greater transparency in the collation process, stronger penalties for electoral officers involved in fraud, and increased reliance on technology for real-time result transmission (Duruji et al., 2020). Strengthening these mechanisms will help safeguard the integrity of Nigeria’s elections and promote political stability 2.2.2 Concept of Political Instability Political instability refers to the frequent occurrence of political crises, disruptions, or uncertainties within a government or society, often characterized by violent conflicts, weak governance, and frequent leadership changes (Acemoglu & Robinson, 2019). It can be triggered by a variety of factors, including election rigging, ethnic and religious tensions, corruption, and weak institutional frameworks. In Nigeria, and particularly in Rivers State, political instability has been a recurring issue, largely fueled by contested electoral outcomes, violent political rivalries, and struggles for control over resources (Dode, 2018). One of the primary drivers of political instability in Rivers State is the intense competition for political power among rival factions. Due to its status as an oil-rich state, winning elections in Rivers State translates to access to vast economic resources, which are often mismanaged by corrupt political elites (Ogundiya, 2019). This high-stakes political environment has led to a pattern of electoral violence, assassinations, and inter-party conflicts, disrupting governance and development in the state (Nwosu, 2023). Election rigging plays a crucial role in exacerbating political instability by undermining the legitimacy of the electoral process. When elections are perceived as fraudulent, opposition parties and their supporters often resort to protests, legal challenges, and, in extreme cases, violent resistance (Omotola, 2020). The 2015 and 2019 elections in Rivers State were particularly controversial, with widespread allegations of vote manipulation, intimidation, and violence. These disputes not only delayed governance processes but also led to deep political divisions within the state (Human Rights Watch, 2017). Furthermore, political instability in Rivers State has had significant socio-economic consequences. Investors are often hesitant to engage in regions marked by political uncertainty, leading to slow economic growth, high unemployment rates, and increased poverty levels (Ayoade, 2018). The lack of stability also affects governance, as successive administrations spend considerable time managing conflicts and dealing with electoral disputes rather than focusing on policy implementation and development (Jega, 2021). This cycle of instability weakens democratic institutions and hampers progress. Addressing political instability in Rivers State requires a multi-faceted approach that includes electoral reforms, institutional strengthening, and conflict resolution mechanisms. Strengthening the independence of electoral bodies, ensuring the neutrality of security agencies, and promoting civic engagement can help reduce election-related conflicts and enhance democratic stability (Ojo, 2021). Additionally, fostering political inclusivity and implementing policies that address socio-economic inequalities can reduce tensions and promote long-term peace in the state. 2.2.3 Consequences of Election Rigging on Political Stability Election rigging has severe implications for political stability in Rivers State. It fosters violence, weakens public trust in democratic institutions, and produces illegitimate governments that struggle to govern effectively. These consequences not only undermine democracy but also contribute to long-term political instability and governance crises. Electoral Violence One of the most immediate and devastating consequences of election rigging is electoral violence. When political parties manipulate the electoral process, rival factions often respond with violence, leading to clashes between supporters, security forces, and political thugs. Rivers State has a long history of election-related violence, with the 2015 and 2019 general elections ranking among the most violent in Nigeria (Human Rights Watch, 2017). These elections witnessed numerous cases of voter intimidation, ballot box snatching, and violent confrontations, resulting in loss of lives and destruction of property. The link between election rigging and violence is further reinforced by the involvement of armed political thugs. Politicians in Rivers State often recruit and sponsor gangs to disrupt voting in opposition strongholds or intimidate voters into supporting their preferred candidates (Dode, 2018). These armed groups, once mobilized, frequently operate beyond election periods, contributing to a broader culture of insecurity. The proliferation of small arms and light weapons among political thugs has led to a rise in cult-related violence and organized crime in the state. Moreover, election-related violence has long-term effects on voter participation and democratic development. Many residents of Rivers State fear for their safety during elections and, as a result, abstain from voting (Ogundiya, 2019). This voter apathy further weakens democracy, as the electoral process becomes dominated by a few individuals rather than reflecting the collective will of the people. Until credible elections are ensured, electoral violence will remain a major threat to political stability in Rivers State. Erosion of Public Trust in Democracy Election rigging significantly undermines public trust in democratic institutions. When elections are perceived as fraudulent, citizens lose faith in the electoral process and, by extension, in democracy itself (Omotola, 2020). Many voters in Rivers State believe that elections are pre-determined, with outcomes manipulated by political elites rather than decided by the people. This perception discourages voter participation and weakens democratic engagement. A lack of trust in the electoral system can lead to political apathy and disillusionment among citizens. When people feel their votes do not count, they are less likely to engage in political processes such as voting, political debates, and civic activism (Jega, 2020). This disconnection between the government and the governed creates a gap that authoritarian tendencies can exploit. In some cases, voter apathy benefits corrupt politicians, as it reduces electoral competition and allows them to manipulate outcomes with little resistance. In extreme cases, the erosion of trust in democracy can lead to mass protests, civil disobedience, and violent resistance. In Rivers State, post-election protests and legal battles have become common following allegations of electoral fraud (Nwosu, 2023). If left unaddressed, this growing dissatisfaction can escalate into larger political crises, further destabilizing the state. Restoring confidence in democracy requires comprehensive electoral reforms, strict enforcement of electoral laws, and the promotion of free and fair elections. Weak Governance and Political Legitimacy Governments that emerge through fraudulent elections often struggle with legitimacy and effective governance. Political legitimacy is derived from the consent of the governed, and when elections are rigged, that consent is absent (Duruji et al., 2020). In Rivers State, frequent allegations of electoral fraud have led to prolonged legal disputes, political instability, and governance crises. Opposition parties and civil society organizations frequently challenge election results, creating a volatile political environment that hinders governance. Illegitimate governments also face difficulties in enforcing policies and maintaining law and order. When citizens do not recognize the government as a product of free and fair elections, they are less likely to comply with policies and regulations (Ayoade, 2018). This lack of cooperation weakens institutions, reduces economic growth, and fosters public resentment. Additionally, fraudulent leaders often prioritize personal or party interests over public welfare, leading to poor service delivery and mismanagement of state resources. Furthermore, weak governance resulting from election rigging affects long-term political development. Instead of focusing on developmental policies, governments often become preoccupied with maintaining power through undemocratic means, such as suppressing opposition, restricting press freedom, and manipulating state institutions (Ojo, 2021). This cycle of poor governance and electoral fraud perpetuates instability, making Rivers State a hotspot for political crises. Breaking this cycle requires strong democratic institutions, transparency in governance, and a commitment to electoral integrity 2.3 Empirical Review Several scholars have explored the connection between election rigging and political instability in Nigeria, providing empirical insights into the causes, processes, and consequences of electoral fraud, particularly in Rivers State. This review examines key studies on the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), voter suppression, the involvement of security agencies, and vote buying in shaping electoral outcomes. Jega (2021) conducted an empirical study on INEC’s role in mitigating electoral fraud in Nigeria, focusing on institutional weaknesses that enable rigging. Using interviews with INEC officials and an analysis of electoral reports, the study identified key challenges, including political interference, logistical constraints, and inadequate technological infrastructure. These challenges significantly undermine INEC’s ability to conduct free and fair elections, especially in politically volatile states like Rivers. The study highlighted the 2019 gubernatorial elections in Rivers State, where INEC officials faced intimidation and bribery attempts, leading to inconsistencies in result collation. Jega (2021) further outlined specific inefficiencies, such as flawed voter registration processes, delays in result transmission, and the failure to enforce punitive measures against electoral offenders. The study concluded that without greater financial and operational independence, INEC would continue to struggle with credibility issues. To address these challenges, Jega recommended comprehensive electoral reforms, including the full implementation of electronic voting and stricter penalties for electoral malpractices to enhance Nigeria’s democratic process. Ayoade (2018) examined voter suppression in Nigeria, analyzing voter turnout data from the 2015 and 2019 general elections. The study found a significant correlation between electoral violence and decreased voter participation, with Rivers State experiencing a 15% decline in voter turnout between 2015 and 2019 due to widespread intimidation by security agents and political thugs. Relying on election observer reports from organizations such as the European Union Election Observation Mission (EUEOM) and the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD), the study documented instances where armed groups blocked access to polling stations or forcibly dispersed voters. Ayoade (2018) also identified voter suppression as a deliberate strategy used by political parties to manipulate election outcomes. Tactics such as delayed arrival of election materials, voter harassment, and strategic deployment of security forces in opposition strongholds were commonly employed. The study recommended that INEC strengthen collaboration with civil society organizations to enhance voter education and implement robust security measures to protect voters on election day. Omotola (2020) explored the link between election rigging and political instability, with a particular focus on the role of security agencies. Using case studies from Rivers State, the study analyzed how police and military personnel were complicit in electoral manipulation. Findings from the 2019 elections revealed that security forces actively assisted politicians by preventing opposition supporters from voting or escorting ballot boxes to undisclosed locations for manipulation. Based on interviews with election monitors, security personnel, and voters, the study concluded that partisan policing significantly contributed to post-election violence. Omotola (2020) further discussed the long-term effects of election rigging on governance and public trust, arguing that fraudulent elections erode citizens’ faith in democratic institutions, leading to protests, civil unrest, and, in extreme cases, political violence. This was evident in Rivers State, where electoral disputes in 2015 and 2019 escalated into violent confrontations between rival political supporters. To address these issues, the study recommended stricter oversight of security agencies during elections and the establishment of an independent electoral crimes tribunal to prosecute cases of electoral malpractice. Ojo (2021) investigated the impact of vote buying on Nigeria’s electoral process, particularly examining how economic hardship influences voter behavior. Using survey data from voters in Rivers, Kano, and Lagos states, the study found that 68% of respondents admitted to receiving monetary or material incentives in exchange for their votes. In Rivers State, where unemployment and poverty rates are high, vote buying was particularly prevalent, with political parties exploiting voters’ economic vulnerabilities. The study documented instances from the 2019 elections, where voters were offered cash payments ranging from ₦2,000 to ₦10,000 in exchange for their votes. Ojo (2021) further analyzed how vote buying undermines electoral integrity, revealing that voters who accept bribes often feel obligated to vote against their conscience. This practice facilitates the election of leaders based on financial influence rather than merit, weakening governance by prioritizing personal loyalty over accountability and competence. To curb this issue, Ojo (2021) recommended stronger anti-corruption measures, increased voter education on the dangers of electoral bribery, and stricter enforcement of electoral laws to penalize both buyers and sellers of votes. While these studies provide valuable insights into electoral malpractices in Nigeria, there remains a need for a more localized and comprehensive analysis of election rigging in Rivers State. This study aims to build on existing research by examining the specific dynamics of electoral fraud in the state, assessing the effectiveness of recent electoral reforms, and exploring the broader implications of election rigging on governance and political stability. Despite extensive research on election rigging and political instability in Nigeria, significant gaps remain, particularly regarding the specific dynamics of electoral malpractice in Rivers State. Existing studies, such as Jega (2021), Ayoade (2018), Omotola (2020), and Ojo (2021), provide valuable insights into the role of INEC, voter suppression, security agencies, and vote buying. However, these studies tend to focus on broad national trends rather than the unique electoral challenges in Rivers State. One key gap this study aims to fill is the localized examination of election rigging in Rivers State. While previous research has discussed electoral fraud in Nigeria, few have provided a comprehensive, case-specific analysis of Rivers State. Given the state's history of intense political competition, electoral violence, and manipulation, this study will offer a more detailed and context-specific examination of the methods and impacts of election rigging. Another crucial gap is the impact of election rigging on governance and public trust. While Omotola (2020) highlighted the link between election rigging and political instability, there is limited empirical research on how repeated electoral fraud in Rivers State affects governance, citizen engagement, and long-term political participation. This study will explore how rigged elections influence governance quality, political apathy, and trust in democratic institutions. Furthermore, there is a lack of research on the effectiveness of electoral reforms and security interventions in mitigating rigging in Rivers State. Existing literature acknowledges INEC’s weaknesses and the role of security agencies in electoral fraud (Jega, 2021; Omotola, 2020). However, there is insufficient analysis of whether recent electoral reforms, such as electronic result transmission and security sector interventions, have improved election integrity in Rivers State. This study will assess the effectiveness of these reforms and propose additional measures for strengthening electoral credibility. Lastly, while Ojo (2021) examined vote buying at the national level, there is a limited understanding of the relationship between economic hardship and electoral malpractices in Rivers State. There is insufficient data on how economic conditions in Rivers State specifically contribute to the persistence of vote buying, differentiating it from other regions in Nigeria. This study will analyze the extent to which poverty and unemployment drive electoral malpractice in the state, providing a more nuanced perspective on the economic motivations behind electoral fraud. By addressing these gaps, this study will provide a deeper understanding of election rigging in Rivers State and offer policy recommendations for improving electoral credibility and democratic governance in the region. CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY This chapter outlines the methodology adopted to examine election rigging and political instability in Rivers State from 2015 to 2023. It covers the research design, study area, population, sampling techniques, data collection methods, data analysis techniques, and ethical considerations. 3.1Research Design The study employs a descriptive survey research design to analyze the prevalence, causes, and consequences of election rigging in Rivers State. This design is appropriate as it allows for both qualitative and quantitative data collection, providing a comprehensive understanding of electoral fraud and its impact on political stability. The research approach enables the gathering of factual evidence through surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions (FGDs), which facilitate an in-depth exploration of the issue. 3:2 Study Area Rivers State, located in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria, serves as the focal point for this study on election rigging and political instability. Bordered by states such as Imo, Abia, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta, and with access to the Atlantic Ocean, Rivers State covers an area of approximately 11,077 square kilometers. As of the 2006 census, the population was 5,198,716, which increased to an estimated 7,234,973 by 2023, making it the fourth most populous state in Nigeria. The state is characterized by its ethnic diversity, with major groups including the Ikwerre, Ijaw, Ogoni, Ogba, Ekpeye, and Kalabari. This rich cultural tapestry is further highlighted by the presence of 30 indigenous languages and dialects spoken within the state. Economically, Rivers State is pivotal to Nigeria's economy due to its vast oil and gas reserves, accounting for a significant portion of the nation's crude oil production. This abundance of natural resources has earned it the moniker "Treasure Base of the Nation." Additionally, traditional occupations such as fishing remain integral to the livelihoods of riverine communities, with approximately 270 species of fish identified in the area. Politically, Rivers State has experienced considerable turbulence, often being a hotspot for electoral violence and security breaches. The intense rivalry between major political parties, notably the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC), has frequently escalated into violence, particularly during election periods. For instance, the 2015 gubernatorial elections in Rivers State were among the most violent in the country, with numerous reports of political killings, bombings, and armed clashes. More recently, in March 2025, President Bola Tinubu declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, suspending the governor and state lawmakers due to a political crisis and incidents of pipeline vandalism. This confluence of economic significance, ethnic diversity, and political volatility makes Rivers State a pertinent case study for examining the impacts of election rigging on political instability. Understanding the dynamics within this state can provide valuable insights into the broader challenges facing Nigeria's democratic processes. 3:3 Population of the Study The population comprises individuals and institutions directly involved in the electoral process, including registered voters, political party members, electoral officials from INEC, civil society organizations, security agencies, political analysts, journalists, and academic researchers, The population of the study is the entire population of Rivers State estimated at 7,223,973 (National bureau of Statistics {NBS}, 2020). According to INEC records, there were approximately 3.5 million registered voters in Rivers State during the 2019 elections. Major political parties such as the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), All Progressives Congress (APC), and other smaller parties are included to understand their strategies and perspectives on election rigging. Electoral officials provide insights into the effectiveness of electoral management, security measures, and challenges in preventing fraud, while civil society organizations and election monitors offer perspectives on electoral transparency, voter suppression, and irregularities. Security agencies contribute by discussing their role in managing election-related violence and fraud, and political analysts and journalists provide expert opinions on the broader political and governance implications of election rigging. 3.4 Sampling size and Sampling Technique This study employs a Stratified Random Sampling technique to ensure fair representation of key stakeholders in the electoral process. The population is divided into meaningful strata, including registered voters, political party members, INEC officials, security personnel, and civil society organizations. A sample size of 400 respondents is determined using the Taro Yamane formula and distributed proportionally among these groups. Within each stratum, random sampling is used to select participants, ensuring that every group’s perspective is adequately represented in the study. To accommodate both research methods, a random sampling technique is used to select voters and political party members across various local government areas of Rivers State, ensuring statistical representation and allowing for the measurement of electoral malpractice and its impact on political stability. For the qualitative aspect, a purposive sampling technique is used to select electoral officials, civil society representatives, security personnel, and political analysts who provide in-depth, expert insights that complement the numerical data. The combination of these approaches strengthens the study’s credibility by integrating numerical evidence with expert analysis and real-world experiences. To ensure a representative sample, the Yamane (1967) formula is applied to determine the appropriate sample size: N = Where n = sample size N = population of size (7,223,973) e = margin = 0.5 N = N = = 18,059.935 = = 400 3.5Sources of Data Both primary and secondary data sources will be utilized to provide a well-rounded analysis. Primary data will be obtained through questionnaires, interviews, and FGDs, while secondary data will be collected from official INEC reports, academic studies, election observation reports, and judicial rulings. This combination of sources ensures that the study will be based on factual, verified information while incorporating firsthand experiences from stakeholders. 3.6Method of Data Collection To gather relevant data, the study will employ questionnaires, interview guides, and focus group discussion (FGD) guides. The questionnaire will be structured with both closed-ended and Likert-scale questions to capture quantitative data on voter experiences and perceptions of electoral fraud. The interview and FGD guides were designed to facilitate in-depth discussions with key informants, allowing for the collection of qualitative insights on the underlying causes and consequences of election rigging. 3.7Validity of Research Instruments To ensure accuracy and consistency, the research instruments will undergo validity testing. Experts in political science and electoral studies will review the questionnaire and interview guides to ensure their relevance, while a pilot test will be conducted to refine ambiguous questions. 3.8 Reliability of Research Instruments The reliability of the questionnaire will be tested using Cronbach’s Alpha, with a threshold of 0.7 used to determine internal consistency, ensuring the dependability of the data collected. 3.9Method of Data Analysis Data analysis will be conducted using both quantitative and qualitative methods. Quantitative data obtained from questionnaires will be analyzed using descriptive statistics such as percentages, means, and chi-square tests to identify patterns and relationships. Qualitative data from interviews and FGDs will be examined through thematic content analysis, where key themes are identified and interpreted in relation to the study’s objectives. This mixed-methods approach will provide a comprehensive understanding of the issue. CHAPTER FOUR DATA PRESENTATION, ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF FINDINGS This chapter presents a detailed analysis of the data collected for this study on election rigging and political instability in Rivers State -). The primary objective of this chapter is to provide a comprehensive overview of the data gathered through fieldwork and to examine the relationship between electoral malpractice and political unrest within the state. The analysis is organized systematically to address the research questions and objectives outlined in the preceding chapters. This includes an in-depth presentation of the responses received from the administered questionnaires, followed by interpretation using appropriate statistical tools and analytical techniques. The chapter begins with the presentation of the demographic characteristics of respondents, which offers context for understanding the perspectives shared. This is followed by the analysis of responses to key research questions, focusing on the nature of election rigging, its impact on political stability, the role of political actors and institutions, and strategies for reform. The chapter also includes hypothesis testing using Chi-square (χ²) statistical methods to determine the significance of identified relationships. Through a rigorous interpretation of the data, this chapter aims to uncover underlying patterns, trends, and correlations within the population. The discussions and interpretations derived from the analysis will help to draw meaningful conclusions and contribute directly to the overall objectives of the study. Ultimately, this chapter provides the empirical foundation upon which the final conclusions and recommendations will be based. 4.1 Data Presentation This section presents data obtained from the field through the use of questionnaires administered to respondents in Rivers State. A total of 400 questionnaires were distributed. Out of this number, 345 were correctly filled and returned, while 55 were not retrieved. The table below provides the breakdown of the distribution and retrieval. Table 4.1: Questionnaire Distribution and Retrieval Category Frequency Percentage (%) Total Issued 400 100% Returned 345 86.3% Not Returned 55 13.7% Source: Field Data, 2024 Table 4.1 show that 86.3% of the questionnaires were returned and used for analysis, while 13.7% were not returned. Table 4.2: Age of Respondents Age Range Number of Respondents Percentage (%) 18–30 years 85 24.6% 31–45 years 190 55.1% 46 years and above 70 20.3% Total 345 100% Source: Field Data, 2024 Table4.2 shows the majority of respondents (55.1%) are between 31 and 45 years old. Those within the 18–30 age group represent 24.6%, while 20.3% are 46 years and above. Table 4.3: Gender of Respondents Gender Number of Respondents Percentage (%) Male 140 40.6% Female 205 59.4% Total 345 100% Source: Field Data, 2024 Table 4.3 shows that 59.4% of respondents are female, while 40.6% are male. Table 4.4: Occupation of Respondents Occupation Number of Respondents Percentage (%) Employed 45 13.0% Unemployed 65 18.8% Self-employed 235 68.2% Total 345 100% Source: Field Data, 2024 Table 4.4 shows Most respondents (68.2%) identified as self-employed, 18.8% are unemployed, while 13.0% are employed in the public or private sector. Table 4.5: Educational Background of Respondents Educational Background Respondents Percentage (%) FSLC 70 20.3% WAEC 135 39.1% HND/BSc 110 31.9% Postgraduate 30 8.7% Total 345 100% Source: Field Data (2024) The table 4.5 shows that the majority of respondents (39.1%) possess WAEC qualifications. 31.9% hold HND or BSc degrees, 20.3% have FSLC, while 8.7% are postgraduates. 4.1.1 Research Question One: What is the nature and forms of election rigging in Rivers State? The structured questionnaire was used to collect responses related to this question. A four-point Likert scale of Strongly Agree (SA), Agree (A), Disagree (D), and Strongly Disagree (SD) was used to measure the views of respondents on various forms and methods of election rigging practiced in Rivers State. Table 4.6: Ballot box snatching is a common practice during elections in Rivers State Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 180 52.2% Agree (A) 110 31.9% Disagree (D) 35 10.1% Strongly Disagree (SD) 20 5.8% Total 345 100% Source: Field Data, 2024 Interpretation: A total of 84.1% of respondents either strongly agreed or agreed that ballot box snatching is a common feature of elections in Rivers State. Table 4.7: Vote buying influences the outcome of elections in Rivers State Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 200 58.0% Agree (A) 95 27.5% Disagree (D) 30 8.7% Strongly Disagree (SD) 20 5.8% Total 345 100% Interpretation: Most respondents (85.5%) agree that vote buying plays a major role in shaping election outcomes. Table 4.8: Election results are often manipulated during collation Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 170 49.3% Agree (A) 105 30.4% Disagree (D) 45 13.0% Strongly Disagree (SD) 25 7.3% Total 345 100% Interpretation: A majority (79.7%) of respondents believe that election results are tampered with during collation. Table 4.9: Electoral violence and intimidation are used to influence election outcomes in Rivers State Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 160 46.4% Agree (A) 115 33.3% Disagree (D) 45 13.0% Strongly Disagree (SD) 25 7.3% Total 345 100% Interpretation: A combined 79.7% of respondents agree that electoral violence and intimidation are commonly used to manipulate electoral outcomes in Rivers State. 4.1.2Research Question Two: How does election rigging impact political stability in Rivers State? Table 4.10: Election rigging increases the chances of post-election violence in Rivers State Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 170 49.3% Agree (A) 110 31.9% Disagree (D) 45 13.0% Strongly Disagree (SD) 20 5.8% Total 345 100% The data in Table 4.10 reveals that a majority of respondents believe election rigging increases the chances of post-election violence in Rivers State. Specifically, 49.3% strongly agreed and 31.9% agreed, totaling 81.2% in support of this view. In contrast, only 18.8% disagreed or strongly disagreed. This indicates a strong perception among respondents that election rigging is a major factor contributing to post-election violence in the state. Table 4.11: Election rigging leads to public distrust in the democratic process Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 160 46.4% Agree (A) 120 34.8% Disagree (D) 45 13.0% Strongly Disagree (SD) 20 5.8% Total 345 100% Table 4.11 shows that a majority of respondents believe election rigging leads to public distrust in the democratic process. A combined 81.2% of the participants either strongly agreed (46.4%) or agreed (34.8%) with this view. Only 18.8% disagreed (13.0%) or strongly disagreed (5.8%). This suggests that most people perceive election rigging as a serious threat to public confidence in democratic institutions and electoral outcomes in Rivers State. Table 4.12: Election rigging contributes to political apathy among citizens Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 150 43.5% Agree (A) 115 33.3% Disagree (D) 55 15.9% Strongly Disagree (SD) 25 7.3% Total 345 100% Table 4.12 indicates that a large proportion of respondents believe election rigging contributes to political apathy among citizens. A total of 76.8% either strongly agreed (43.5%) or agreed (33.3%) with this statement. In contrast, 15.9% disagreed and 7.3% strongly disagreed, making up a combined 23.2%. These results suggest that most people see election rigging as a key factor discouraging public participation in the political process, likely due to a loss of faith in the fairness and credibility of elections. Table 4.13: Election rigging undermines the legitimacy of elected leaders in Rivers State Response Frequency Percentage (%) Strongly Agree (SA) 175 50.7% Agree (A) 115 33.3% Disagree (D) 35 10.1% Strongly Disagree (SD) 20 5.8% Total 345 100% Table 4.13 reveals that the majority of respondents believe election rigging undermines the legitimacy of elected leaders in Rivers State. A combined 84% agreed with this view, with 50.7% strongly agreeing and 33.3% agreeing. Only 10.1% disagreed and 5.8% strongly disagreed, totaling 15.9%. This indicates a strong perception that leaders who emerge through manipulated elections lack genuine public mandate, which may weaken their credibility and authority in the eyes of the electorate. 4.1.3 Research Question Three: What is the effect of election rigging on democratic governance, peace, and public confidence in Rivers State? Table 4.14: Do you believe election rigging weakens democratic governance in Rivers State? Options SA A D SD Yes, it weakens democracy- No, it has no major effect- Partially affects democracy- Table 4.14 examines respondents' beliefs about whether election rigging weakens democratic governance in Rivers State. A majority of participants responded "Yes, it weakens democracy," with 190 strongly agreeing and 95 agreeing — totaling 285 responses (SA + A), indicating a strong conviction that election rigging undermines democratic governance. In contrast, those who believed it "has no major effect" were fewer, with only 40 strongly agreeing and 60 agreeing, but a larger number — 245 respondents (D + SD) — disagreed with this statement, suggesting rejection of the idea that election rigging is harmless. Additionally, a moderate number of respondents chose "Partially affects democracy," with mixed levels of agreement: 85 strongly agreed, 100 agreed, while 90 disagreed and 70 strongly disagreed. Overall, the results suggest that most respondents believe election rigging significantly weakens democratic governance in Rivers State, though a portion acknowledges that its impact may vary in degree. Source: Field Data (2024) Table 4.15: Do you think election rigging has contributed to political instability or civil unrest in Rivers State? Options SA A D SD Yes, it has increased instability- No, it hasn’t caused instability- To some extent- Table 4.15 explores respondents' views on whether election rigging has contributed to political instability or civil unrest in Rivers State. A large portion of respondents answered "Yes, it has increased instability," with 180 strongly agreeing and 110 agreeing — a total of 290 affirming this view. This indicates a strong public perception that election rigging is a major contributor to instability and unrest. In contrast, the response "No, it hasn’t caused instability" received less support, with only 30 strongly agreeing and 45 agreeing, while a significantly higher number — 270 respondents — disagreed or strongly disagreed with that position, rejecting the idea that election rigging has had no effect. The "To some extent" option had a more mixed response: 100 strongly agreed and 90 agreed, while 80 disagreed and 75 strongly disagreed. This suggests that while some respondents see the impact of election rigging as partial or conditional, the dominant view remains that it has significantly increased instability in Rivers State. Source: Field Data (2024) Table 4.16: Do you believe election rigging has reduced citizens’ confidence in the electoral process? Options SA A D SD Yes, confidence has dropped- No, confidence remains strong- Mixed or uncertain- Table 4.16 assesses whether respondents believe election rigging has reduced citizens’ confidence in the electoral process in Rivers State. A significant majority selected "Yes, confidence has dropped," with 210 strongly agreeing and 95 agreeing — a combined 305 responses, indicating overwhelming support for the view that election rigging has undermined trust in the electoral system. In contrast, the "No, confidence remains strong" option had much weaker support, with only 25 strongly agreeing and 40 agreeing. Meanwhile, 280 respondents either disagreed or strongly disagreed with that position, clearly rejecting the notion that public confidence has remained unaffected. The "Mixed or uncertain" responses also reflect some level of doubt or ambivalence, with 110 strongly agreeing, 100 agreeing, 90 disagreeing, and 45 strongly disagreeing — showing divided opinions in this category. Overall, the data strongly suggests that most respondents believe election rigging has had a negative impact on citizens’ confidence in the electoral process in Rivers State. Source: Field Data (2024) 4.2 TESTING OF HYPOTHESIS 4.2.1 Hypothesis One H₀¹: There is no significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. H₁¹: There is a significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. Table 4.17: Chi-square Test for Hypothesis One S/N Fo (Observed Frequency) Fe (Expected Frequency) Fo − Fe (Fo − Fe) ² (Fo − Fe) ² / Fe- - - Total 345 137.64 Source: Field Data (2024) Explanation: ● Fo = Observed frequency (data obtained from the field) ● Fe = Expected frequency = Total observed frequency ÷ number of variables Fe = 345 ÷ 4 = 86.25 ● Fo − Fe = Difference between observed and expected frequency ● (Fo − Fe) ² = Square of the difference ● (Fo − Fe) ² / Fe = Chi-square value for each response category Degree of Freedom (df): df = n − 1 = 4 − 1 = 3 Level of Significance: 0.05 (5%) Table Value (Critical Value): From the Chi-square distribution table at 0.05 significance level and 3 degrees of freedom, the critical value is 7.81 Calculated Chi-square Value: 137.64 Decision Rule: The decision rule for hypothesis testing using the Chi-square (χ²) method states that: ● If the calculated value of Chi-square is greater than the critical (table) value at the chosen level of significance (0.05) and degree of freedom (df), then the null hypothesis (H₀) is rejected, and the alternative hypothesis (H₁) is accepted. In this case, the calculated Chi-square value is 137.64, and the critical table value at 0.05 significance level with 3 degrees of freedom is 7.81. Since 137.64 > 7.81, we reject the null hypothesis which states that there is no significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. By rejecting the null hypothesis, we accept the alternative hypothesis, which posits that there is a significant relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State. 4.2.2 Hypothesis Two H₀²: Election rigging has no significant impact on democratic governance in Rivers State. H₁²: Election rigging has a significant impact on democratic governance in Rivers State Table 4.18: Chi-square Test for Hypothesis Two S/N Fo (Observed Frequency) Fe (Expected Frequency) Fo − Fe (Fo − Fe) ² (Fo − Fe) ² / Fe- - - Total 345 160.79 Source: Field Data (2024) Explanation: ● Fo = Observed frequency (from field responses) ● Fe = Expected frequency = Total Fo ÷ number of response categories = 345 ÷ 4 = 86.25 ● Fo − Fe = Difference between observed and expected frequency ● (Fo − Fe) ² = Square of the difference ● (Fo − Fe) ² / Fe = Chi-square value for each category Degree of Freedom: df = n − 1 = 4 − 1 = 3 Level of Significance: 0.05 (5%) Table Value (Critical Value): From the Chi-square table, at df = 3 and α = 0.05, the critical value is 7.81 Calculated Chi-square Value: 160.79 Decision Rule: The decision rule for Chi-square testing is that if the calculated value is greater than the critical/table value, we reject the null hypothesis (H₀) and accept the alternative hypothesis (H₁). Since the calculated Chi-square value 160.79 > 7.81, we rejectthe null hypothesis which stated that election rigging has no significant impact on democratic governance in Rivers State. 4.2.3 Hypothesis Three H₀³: Election rigging has no significant effect on public trust, peace, and political stability in Rivers State. H₁³: Election rigging has a significant effect on public trust, peace, and political stability in Rivers State. Table 4.19: Chi-square Test for Hypothesis Three S/N Fo (Observed Frequency) Fe (Expected Frequency) Fo − Fe (Fo − Fe)² (Fo − Fe)² / Fe-,- - -61.25 3,- -56.25 3,- Total 345 258.19 Source: Field Data (2024) Explanation: ● Fo = Observed frequency (from respondents' data) ● Fe = Expected frequency = Total Fo ÷ number of categories = 345 ÷ 4 = 86.25 ● Fo − Fe = Difference between observed and expected values ● (Fo − Fe) ² = Square of that difference ● (Fo − Fe) ² / Fe = Chi-square statistic per row Degree of Freedom (df): 4 − 1 = 3 Level of Significance: 0.05 Table Value (Critical Value): At 0.05 significance level and 3 degrees of freedom, the critical value is 7.81 Calculated Chi-square Value: 258.19 Decision Rule: According to the Chi-square decision rule, if the calculated Chi-square value is greater than the table value, we reject the null hypothesis (H₀) and accept the alternative hypothesis (H₁). Since 258.19 > 7.81, we reject the null hypothesis which stated that election rigging has no significant effect on public trust, peace, and political stability in Rivers State. 4.3 Discussion of Findings The study set out to address critical gaps in existing research on election rigging and its influence on political instability in Rivers State. While several scholars have discussed electoral malpractices in Nigeria broadly, many have failed to localize their analysis or explore the specific effects of election rigging on democratic governance, civil peace, and public trust within Rivers State. The study by Ogundiya (2010) examined electoral violence and democracy in Nigeria, highlighting how political elites manipulate the electoral process for personal gain. However, the study did not specifically explore how recurrent election rigging contributes to political instability in sub-national units like Rivers State. The findings from this study attempt to fill that gap. As shown in Tables 4.6 to 4.9, the respondents strongly agreed that ballot box snatching, vote buying, result manipulation, and electoral violence are common forms of rigging that contribute to post-election unrest, weakened institutions, and public distrust in Rivers State. Similarly, Alfa and Otaida (2012) explored the general nature of electoral malpractice in Nigeria, but their work did not analyze its impact on public participation and legitimacy at the state level. The present study addresses this omission. In Tables 4.10 to 4.13, a majority of respondents agreed that election rigging discourages voter turnout, erodes confidence in the electoral process, and undermines the legitimacy of elected officials in Rivers State. This reflects a significant link between rigged elections and the breakdown of democratic accountability. Furthermore, Omodia (2014) discussed electoral reform in Nigeria, noting that the repeated failure of reforms to curb electoral misconduct has led to apathy among citizens. However, that study did not evaluate how election rigging translates into political instability. This gap was addressed in the current study. Based on the responses in Tables 4.14 to 4.16, respondents confirmed that rigging practices contribute directly to political violence, disruption of peace, and declining trust in political institutions across the state. The findings from the hypothesis tests also reinforce these observations. The results reveal that election rigging has a statistically significant relationship with democratic governance, public trust, and political stability in Rivers State. This establishes that electoral malpractice is not merely a legal or procedural concern—it is a driver of deeper instability and a threat to long-term democratic development in the region. CHAPTER FIVE SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATIONS 5.1 Summary of Findings This research set out to explore the relationship between election rigging and political instability in Rivers State from 2015 to 2023. The study was necessitated by the persistent electoral irregularities and the accompanying violence that have characterized the political landscape of the state in recent years. Elections are meant to be the cornerstone of democracy, offering the populace the opportunity to choose their leaders through a fair and transparent process. However, in Rivers State, elections have often been marred by fraud, violence, and manipulation, undermining democratic values and threatening peace and stability. The first chapter introduced the background and rationale for the research by exploring how repeated cases of electoral fraud and systemic manipulation of electoral processes have become embedded features of the state’s political culture. The chapter outlined the research questions, hypotheses, and significance of the study, focusing particularly on how election rigging distorts democratic expression and contributes to political instability. The problem was contextualized within Nigeria’s broader democratic challenges but was narrowed down to the unique sociopolitical environment of Rivers State, where contestation for power is often accompanied by violence and institutional compromise. The theoretical framework introduced two key lenses: Elite Theory, which explains the domination of political power by a select few who shape electoral outcomes for their own benefit; and Structural Violence Theory, which highlights how institutionalized injustice and exclusion—though non-physical—generate long-term harm to the political and social order. The second chapter reviewed relevant literature, providing a conceptual and theoretical foundation for the study. It examined previous research on electoral malpractice, political instability, institutional failure, and democratic governance in Nigeria and sub-Saharan Africa. The literature reviewed confirmed that election rigging is widespread in Nigeria and that it poses a fundamental threat to democratic consolidation. While many studies focused on national-level dynamics, there was a significant gap in research focused specifically on the localized experiences of states like Rivers. The chapter further explained how political instability often results from systematic disenfranchisement and how democratic institutions are weakened when elections are neither credible nor transparent. The literature also underscored the complicity of electoral management bodies, political parties, and security agencies in fostering a climate where electoral fraud becomes routine. The third chapter focused on the research methodology adopted for the study. The researcher employed a descriptive survey design to collect and analyze quantitative data from a sample population drawn from across Rivers State. A total of 400 questionnaires were distributed using stratified sampling to ensure a representative spread across various local government areas, urban and rural zones, and socio-political categories. Of these, 345 were returned and deemed valid for analysis. The instrument used for data collection was a structured questionnaire that explored respondents’ experiences, perceptions, and assessments of election rigging and its effects. The validity and reliability of the instrument were established through expert review and pilot testing. Ethical considerations were duly observed, including voluntary participation and confidentiality of responses. The data collected was analyzed using both descriptive statistics (frequencies and percentages) and inferential statistics, particularly the chi-square test of independence, which was used to determine the strength and significance of relationships between variables such as rigging, instability, and loss of public trust. The fourth chapter presented and interpreted the results of the data analysis. The findings indicated that election rigging is not only prevalent but has become normalized in the political environment of Rivers State. Forms of rigging identified included ballot box snatching, vote buying, falsification of results, intimidation of voters, and the strategic deployment of violence and security forces to manipulate outcomes. Descriptive data showed that a significant majority of respondents believed these practices were widespread and that they fundamentally undermined the electoral process. Inferential analysis revealed a statistically significant relationship between election rigging and political instability. Specifically, the study found that the more electoral fraud was perceived to occur in a given area, the higher the levels of political violence, public mistrust, and apathy recorded in that area. The hypotheses tested in the study were all confirmed, affirming that election rigging significantly affects democratic governance, weakens state legitimacy, and threatens sustainable peace. These findings aligned with both the theoretical assumptions and the broader literature, confirming that elite-driven manipulation and structural exclusion are key drivers of democratic failure in the Nigerian context. Taken together, the summaries of Chapters One through Four provide a coherent foundation for understanding the empirical findings of this research. They demonstrate how a well-structured inquiry into the nature, causes, and effects of election rigging—grounded in theory and supported by field data—can illuminate the underlying forces driving political instability in Rivers State and point toward possible pathways for reform. 5.2 Conclusion The evidence presented in this study reveals a critical and deeply unsettling reality: that election rigging in Rivers State has moved beyond episodic malpractice into a systematic political norm—an entrenched culture of manipulation that is now perceived as part of the electoral "process." What this suggests is not just the failure of elections, but the collapse of the very values that define democratic life: legitimacy, accountability, representation, and public trust. Rigging is not merely an act of fraud; it is a mechanism through which violence, exclusion, and elite domination are institutionalized. One of the most troubling aspects highlighted by this research is that electoral fraud has become predictable—anticipated even—by both the electorate and the political class. When democratic processes are expected to be flawed before they begin, they no longer inspire hope or a sense of agency among the people. Instead, they breed disillusionment, fear, and withdrawal. This is precisely how democracy dies: not always with dramatic coups or military takeovers, but quietly, through the erosion of norms and the normalization of illegality. Furthermore, this study does not simply expose the tactics of rigging—vote buying, ballot box snatching, voter suppression, falsification of results, and violence—it exposes the broader ethical collapse of political competition in Rivers State. Elections have become battles for control over resources and privilege, not opportunities to present ideas or visions for governance. The winners are not always the most competent or visionary, but often the most violent, connected, or corrupt. This has had devastating consequences on political stability, policy quality, and citizen engagement. What emerges clearly from the data and theoretical grounding is that the crisis is structural, not circumstantial. This means it is embedded in the way political power is accessed, wielded, and protected. The dominance of political elites who treat the state as personal property, combined with a weak and politicized electoral body (INEC), compromised security agencies, and an impoverished electorate, creates a cycle that is extremely difficult to break. Structural Violence Theory makes it clear that even without overt conflict, a system that denies citizens their democratic rights are already violent in form and effect. It leaves long-term wounds—distrust, resentment, apathy, and instability. Moreover, this study’s findings raise serious questions about the future of democratic consolidation in Rivers State. If current trends continue, future elections are unlikely to reverse the damage. The state risks drifting into a permanent condition of democratic dysfunction, where elections exist in form but not in substance—hollow performances that do not reflect the will of the people. This is not just dangerous politically; it is dangerous socially and economically. A state that cannot guarantee credible elections cannot guarantee peace, cannot build legitimacy, and cannot attract sustainable development. Investors, reformers, and civil society actors will find little room to operate in such a toxic political environment. Also noteworthy is the fact that the electorate is not passive—many citizens understand the games being played, and their withdrawal from political participation (through apathy, silence, or protest) is itself a form of judgment against the system. The loss of public trust, as this research shows, is not a symptom to be ignored. It is a warning. Where the people no longer believe in the vote, the road to instability, authoritarianism, or open rebellion becomes dangerously short. Thus, this conclusion is not only a statement of academic findings; it is a moral and political reckoning. The legitimacy of governance in Rivers State is at stake, and it cannot be reclaimed through token reforms or surface-level palliatives. Real transformation requires political will, institutional independence, and civic courage. It requires a fundamental shift from seeing elections as contests to be won at any cost, to seeing them as the heartbeat of democracy—sacred, fair, and respected. Until that shift happens—until political elites are held accountable, until INEC becomes truly independent, until voters are empowered and protected—election rigging will remain a permanent threat to peace and governance in Rivers State. And as long as it remains unchecked, political instability will not be an aberration; it will be the expected outcome of every electoral cycle. In the final analysis, this study asserts one unambiguous truth: a democratic society cannot be built on a foundation of fraud. Rigged elections not only silence the will of the people—they sabotage the future. The time to break that cycle is now. 5.3 Recommendations In light of the findings and conclusions, this study makes the following comprehensive recommendations: 1. Institutional Reform of INEC INEC should be restructured to ensure full independence in operations, funding, and staffing. The appointment of INEC officials should be based on merit and subject to legislative oversight. Electoral officers who compromise their roles must be prosecuted. 2. Strengthen Electoral Offenses Legislation A dedicated Electoral Offenses Commission should be established. 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