Job Kimani Nganga

The EPL 2023/2024 looks like a proper three-horse title race, with Arsenal, City, and Liverpool all separated by one point with ten matches to play. Having a three-horse race in the EPL is such a rare occurrence in European soccer. I have long held that one or two teams eventually always fall off. This could still happen, but it seems unlikely. Figure 1 EPL Table as of 13th March 2024 I did this blogpost to show how rare of an occurrence is, and how blessed EPL followers are to be witnessing this spectacle. Since 2008, only once have three teams finished within four points of each other in the EPL. In 2008, Manchester United, Chelsea, and Arsenal all finished within four points of each other. Figure 2 2008 EPL title finish In every other season, in the EPL, it has either been two teams duking it out for the title, or one team sauntering to the league well ahead of the competition. Indeed, even across the top leagues in Europe, a three-horse race happens once in a blue moon. According to my desktop research, over the past ten years, only Five times in forty football tables have there been photo finishes in Europe's top four leagues (I no longer rank the Ligue 1) where the top three or more sides were separated by less than five points. These are: Bundesliga 23 Serie A 2020 Serie A 2017 La Liga 2016 EPL 2008 I have no idea why this is the case to be honest but having three really good teams in the league capable of attaining well over 80 points in European top soccer seems really difficult. As a side note, I think the Barca Real Madrid Atleti dogfight of 2016 stands out to me as a season that had three heavyweights fighting for the title. It was the MSN vs BBC vs El Cholo era, with all three teams dominating domestically, in Europe (we had a Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid final), and Barcelona’s MSN winning domestically. It shows the level of brilliance needed. Is this what we are witnessing in EPL in 2023/24? Liverpool are in the Europa League, but anyone who watched them boss Manchester City in the second half last weekend would conclude they are one of the best teams in Europe currently. Arsenal squeaked past FC Porto In the UCL last 16, but they too are a force, as seen by their impressive point tally last season. And Manchester City are Machester City. Treble defending champions and managed by one of the most visionary coaches in Europe. It is likely that we are witnessing a golden age in English football, and that this year’s title race will be contested by three equally brilliant teams that can compete against anyone in Europe. Let’s savor it. It might not happen again in a long time.