Isaac Obinyan

 Title: Climate Variability and Livelihood Vulnerability: A Study of Edo Central Senatorial District, Edo State, Nigeria Author: Isaac E Obinyan Department of Geography, Ambrose Alli University, Nigeria Email:-Original research conducted in 2016 as part of MSc thesis Abstract Climate change poses a profound threat to the socio-economic stability of communities across Sub-Saharan Africa. This study investigates the impacts of climate variability on the livelihoods of residents in Edo Central Senatorial District, Edo State, Nigeria. Using a combination of secondary data, household surveys, and stakeholder interviews, the study identifies significant changes in rainfall patterns and temperature over the past three decades, alongside associated effects on agriculture, water resources, health, and migration. Findings indicate that average annual rainfall has decreased by approximately 200–300 mm, and temperature has increased by over 1°C, exacerbating agricultural unpredictability and contributing to rural poverty and youth migration. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for adaptive strategies and climate-resilient livelihood systems. Keywords: Climate variability, livelihood vulnerability, rainfall trends, Esan Central, agriculture, Nigeria 1. Introduction Climate change, driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions, has emerged as one of the most pressing global challenges of the 21st century. Its implications are particularly severe in developing countries, where livelihoods are heavily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and water resources. Nigeria, located within the West African sub-region, is highly vulnerable due to its ecological diversity and reliance on rain-fed agriculture. Edo State, situated in Nigeria’s south-South geopolitical zone, exemplifies regions already experiencing the socio-economic impacts of climate variability. This study focuses on Edo Central Senatorial District, aiming to assess how shifting climate parameters affect livelihood patterns, food security, and overall community resilience. 2. Study Area Edo Central is one of the three senatorial districts in Edo State, comprising LGAs such as Esan Central, Esan West, Esan North-East, Esan South-East, Igueben. The region is characterized by a tropical wet and dry climate, with average annual rainfall historically ranging between 1,800–2,000 mm and temperatures averaging 26–28°C. Agriculture—particularly cassava, yam, maize, and oil palm—is the mainstay of the local economy. 3. Methodology A mixed-methods approach was adopted. Primary data were collected through structured questionnaires administered to 200 households, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Secondary data on climate trends were obtained from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and thematic coding. 4. Results and Discussion 4.1. Observed Climate Trends Rainfall data from NiMet indicate a decline in annual rainfall from an average of 1,900 mm in the 1980s to approximately 1,600–1,700 mm in the 2010s. The onset of rains has shifted from early March to late March or early April, while cessation now occurs earlier in October instead of November. This has reduced the growing season by 15–20 days, increasing planting uncertainty. Temperature trends show a mean increase of 1.2°C over the past 40 years. IPCC projections suggest a potential rise of 2.5°C by 2050 under RCP 4.5, which may further intensify evapotranspiration, crop stress, and disease prevalence. Figure 3: Annual Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Edo Central -) 4.2. Agricultural Impacts About 85% of survey respondents reported declining crop yields. Maize and cassava, which dominate the local food system, are especially affected by erratic rainfall. A 2021 study (Ogundeji et al., 2021) found a 30% drop in cassava yields in Edo State over two decades. The shift in rainfall onset has also disrupted planting calendars. Respondents highlighted challenges in securing timely labor and inputs, leading to suboptimal land preparation and seed germination. Livestock production has declined due to pasture degradation and water scarcity. 4.3. Livelihood and Economic Vulnerability Approximately 60% of households identified farming as their primary income source. Declining yields have forced many to diversify into petty trading, artisanal work, or seasonal migration. Youth migration to cities like Benin and Lagos has increased by 25% over the past decade, driven by climate-induced livelihood stress. Figure 4: Climate-Induced Rural Urban Migration in Edo Central -) Women, who dominate subsistence farming and water fetching, are particularly affected. Diminished harvests reduce their economic autonomy, and longer distances to water sources (especially during dry seasons) exacerbate labor burdens. 4.4. Health and Water Access UNICEF and WHO (2022) report that over 60% of rural households in Edo State experience seasonal water shortages. In Esan Central, shallow wells and streams dry up earlier, forcing reliance on unsafe sources. Malaria incidence has risen by 15% in the past ten years, linked to stagnant water from irregular rains and heatwaves. Rising temperatures also increase heat-related illnesses and food spoilage. Interviews with health workers noted an uptick in skin infections and diarrheal diseases during extended dry seasons. 4.5. Community Perceptions and Indigenous Responses Most residents perceive the climate to be “hotter and drier” than in their youth. Farmers have responded with indigenous adaptation practices, including: Shifting planting dates Mulching to retain soil moisture Growing short-cycle crop varieties Intercropping with legumes to maintain soil fertility However, these practices are not universally applied due to limited awareness or access to resources. 5. Policy Implications and Recommendations The compounded effects of climate variability on agriculture, water, and health necessitate a coordinated policy response. Key recommendations include: Strengthening climate services: Expand NiMet’s localized weather forecasts and farmer advisories. Promoting climate-smart agriculture: Support adoption of drought-tolerant crop varieties and smallholder irrigation. Investing in rural water infrastructure: Build boreholes and rainwater harvesting systems to alleviate dry-season water stress. Enhancing social protection: Offer conditional cash transfers or microcredit to buffer against climate shocks. Empowering local women and youth: Targeted training and input access can help marginalized groups build adaptive capacity. 6. Conclusion The evidence from Esan Central shows that climate variability is already undermining rural livelihoods. With rainfall becoming more erratic and temperatures rising, urgent policy action is needed to support at-risk communities. Integrating scientific forecasts with local knowledge, and investing in livelihood resilience, will be vital for safeguarding food security and reducing poverty. References Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) Reports,-. Ogundeji, A. et al. (2021). "Climate Change and Cassava Production in Southern Nigeria." Climate Risk Management. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report, 2021. UNICEF/WHO (2022). Water Scarcity and Health Impacts in Rural Nigeria. National Bureau of Statistics (2023). Internal Migration and Livelihoods in Nigeria.