Fernando Roque

Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​2010-August​ ​2017​ ​California, Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​and​ ​Florida,USA Description: This​ ​research​ ​uses​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​from​ ​Copernicus (​http://land.copernicus.eu/global/products/swi​)​ ​and​ ​the​ ​United​ ​States​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor (​http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/​​ ​)​ ​to​ ​do​ ​a​ ​numeric​ ​research​ ​of​ ​the​ ​impact​ ​of​ ​droughts​ ​on​ ​specific areas​ ​of​ ​California,​ ​Florida,​ ​US​ ​and​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​(Guatemala,​ ​El Salvador​ ​and​ ​Honduras) The​ ​first​ ​part​ ​of​ ​the​ ​research​ ​compares​ ​the​ ​images​ ​from​ ​the​ ​US​ ​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor​ ​to​ ​see the​ ​impacts​ ​of​ ​droughts​ ​in​ ​California​ ​and​ ​Florida.​ ​ ​The​ ​images​ ​are​ ​compared​ ​with​ ​the​ ​numeric data​ ​got​ ​from​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​of​ ​Copernicus. ​ ​The​ ​H5​ ​source​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Copernicus​ ​was​ ​processed​ ​to​ ​get​ ​the​ ​latitude​ ​and​ ​longitude​ ​of each​ ​point​ ​data.​ ​ ​It​ ​was​ ​stored​ ​in​ ​ ​a​ ​database​ ​and​ ​then​ ​displayed​ ​in​ ​Google​ ​Maps​ ​and​ ​plotted​ ​in line​ ​charts.​ ​ ​(See​ ​images​ ​of​ ​the​ ​software​ ​tool​ ​on​ ​the​ ​appendix​ ​A). The​ ​numeric​ ​data​ ​from​ ​SWI​ ​Copernicus​ ​(figure​ ​1)​ ​is​ ​validated​ ​by​ ​the​ ​ ​images​ ​of​ ​US Drought​ ​Monitor​ ​(figures​ ​2a,​ ​2b,​ ​2c,​ ​2d,​ ​2e,​ ​2f,​ ​2g,​ ​2h,​ ​2i). Rainy​ ​season​ ​in​ ​California​ ​is​ ​from​ ​October​ ​to​ ​March.​ ​ ​These​ ​months​ ​are​ ​represented​ ​in the​ ​SWI​ ​Line​ ​Chart​ ​and​ ​images​ ​from​ ​US​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor. The​ ​California​ ​drought​ ​started​ ​on​ ​January​ ​2013​ ​and​ ​finished​ ​on​ ​December​ ​2016, confirmed​ ​by​ ​this​ ​USA​ ​Today​ ​article (​http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-dry-end-to-rainy-season--story.html​​ ​). A​ ​sharp​ ​validation​ ​of​ ​SWI​ ​data​ ​is​ ​the​ ​short​ ​drought​ ​of​ ​Florida​ ​in​ ​2017​ ​reported​ ​by​ ​USA Today (​https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/05/05/move-over-california-florida-has-usas-wor st-drought/-/​) The​ ​line​ ​chart​ ​of​ ​Copernicus​ ​(figure​ ​4)​ ​reflects​ ​the​ ​drought​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​Florida​ ​in​ ​May, 2017​ ​(figure​ ​5A,5B​ ​and​ ​5C). In​ ​Guatemala,​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​two​ ​lakes​ ​disappeared​ ​due​ ​to​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​rains.​ ​Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/05/lake-atescatempa-guatemala-drought-el-nino-vide o/​​ ​.​ ​ ​Nations​ ​Geographic​ ​reported​ ​that. Figures​ ​6​ ​and​ ​7​ ​has​ ​the​ ​SWI​ ​for​ ​these​ ​two​ ​lakes​ ​areas​ ​and​ ​ ​ ​shows​ ​the​ ​low​ ​soil​ ​moisture starting​ ​in​ ​July​ ​2014.​ ​ ​The​ ​SWI​ ​had​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​after​ ​July​ ​2016. Prime​ ​Coffee​ ​plantations​ ​of​ ​Guatemala​ ​have​ ​a​ ​severe​ ​damage​ ​due​ ​to​ ​low​ ​soil​ ​moisture. Figures​ ​11,12,​ ​13​ ​and​ ​14​ ​shows​ ​SWI​ ​for​ ​coffee​ ​plantations​ ​areas​ ​and​ ​confirms​ ​the​ ​low​ ​rain index​ ​starting​ ​July​ ​2014​ ​and​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​after​ ​July​ ​2016. The​ ​same​ ​low​ ​moisture​ ​ ​scenario​ ​from​ ​July​ ​2014​ ​to​ ​July​ ​2016​ ​has​ ​the​ ​Mayan​ ​Biosphere, Southern​ ​Coast​ ​of​ ​Guatemala​ ​and​ ​all​ ​the​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America.​ ​ ​Figures​ ​15,​ ​16 and​ ​17. Follow​ ​up​ ​and​ ​Future​ ​Research.​ ​ ​As​ ​you​ ​can​ ​see​ ​on​ ​the​ ​Figure​ ​One,​ ​SWI​ ​for​ ​California, the​ ​drought​ ​started​ ​on​ ​January,​ ​2013​ ​and​ ​become​ ​severe​ ​on​ ​September,​ ​2013.​ ​ ​The​ ​drought​ ​in Central​ ​America​ ​started​ ​on​ ​July,​ ​2014.​ ​ ​California​ ​drought​ ​finished​ ​on​ ​December​ ​2016,​ ​source USA​ ​Today.​ ​ ​Also​ ​the​ ​SWI​ ​of​ ​the​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​shows​ ​a​ ​recovery​ ​of​ ​soil moisture​ ​from​ ​July,​ ​2016.​ ​ ​Further​ ​research​ ​is​ ​needed​ ​to​ ​understand​ ​if​ ​the​ ​rainy​ ​season​ ​of California​ ​(September​ ​to​ ​March)​ ​could​ ​help​ ​to​ ​predict​ ​the​ ​droughts​ ​in​ ​Central​ ​America(rainy season​ ​May​ ​to​ ​October). Comparison​ ​between​ ​Copernicus​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​data​ ​and​ ​Images​ ​from​ ​Drought Monitor​ ​for​ ​the​ ​United​ ​States.​ ​ ​California​ ​and​ ​Florida​ ​droughts. Figure​ ​One.​​ ​ ​Graphic​ ​from​ ​Data​ ​of​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​of​ ​Copernicus.​ ​ ​The​ ​data​ ​area​ ​is​ ​from​ ​the​ ​Central​ ​part​ ​of the​ ​State​ ​with​ ​more​ ​affectation​ ​of​ ​the​ ​drought.​ ​ ​See​ ​maps​ ​from​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor​ ​for​ ​the​ ​United​ ​States.​ ​ ​The graphics​ ​confirms​ ​the​ ​data​ ​got​ ​from​ ​Copernicus. California​ ​rainest​ ​months​ ​are​ ​December​ ​thru​ ​March (​http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-dry-end-to-rainy-season--story.html​​ ​). California​ ​worst​ ​drought​ ​started​ ​on​ ​January,​ ​2013.​ ​ ​It​ ​last​ ​until​ ​November,​ ​2016. Figure​ ​Two​ ​A:​ ​January​ ​1,​ ​2013 Figure​ ​Two​ ​B:​ ​February​ ​26,​ ​2013 Figure​ ​2C:​​ ​November​ ​5,​ ​2013 Figure​ ​2D:​​ ​December​ ​17,​ ​2013 Figure​ ​2E:​ ​January​ ​14,​ ​2014 Figure​ ​2F:​ ​February​ ​25,​ ​2014 Figure​ ​2G:​​ ​November​ ​18,​ ​2014 Figure​ ​2H:​​ ​December​ ​16,​ ​2014 Figure​ ​2I:​​ ​February​ ​24,​ ​2015 Figure​ ​2H:​​ ​February​ ​23,​ ​2016 Figure​ ​2I:​ ​December​ ​27,​ ​2016 End​ ​of​ ​California​ ​drought: The​ ​drought​ ​in​ ​California​ ​ended​ ​around​ ​December,​ ​2016.​ ​ ​You​ ​can​ ​check​ ​on​ ​the​ ​graphic of​ ​Figure​ ​One​ ​based​ ​on​ ​Copernicus​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​data​ ​and​ ​the​ ​images​ ​from​ ​the​ ​Drought Monitor​ ​for​ ​the​ ​USA​ ​that​ ​the​ ​affected​ ​areas​ ​have​ ​more​ ​moisture.​ ​ ​Here​ ​are​ ​the​ ​images​ ​for January,​ ​February​ ​and​ ​March​ ​2017. Figure​ ​3​ ​A:​​ ​January​ ​24,​ ​2017 Figure​ ​3​ ​B:​​ ​February​ ​28,​ ​2017 Figure​ ​3C:​​ ​March​ ​28,​ ​2017 Central​ ​Florida​ ​drought​ ​May,​ ​2017​ ​and​ ​recovery​ ​of​ ​soil​ ​moisture​ ​for​ ​June,​ ​2017 On​ ​May​ ​5th,​ ​2017,​ ​USA​ ​Today​ ​reported​ ​a​ ​severe​ ​drought​ ​in​ ​Florida.​ ​ ​This​ ​is​ ​confirmed with​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Copernicus​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​and​ ​the​ ​maps​ ​from​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor​ ​for​ ​the​ ​USA. (Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2017/05/05/move-over-california-florida-has-usas-wors t-drought/-/​​ ​) According​ ​to​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​and​ ​the​ ​maps​ ​of​ ​Drought​ ​Monitor,​ ​the​ ​soil moisture​ ​recovers​ ​to​ ​normal​ ​indexes​ ​in​ ​June,​ ​2017. Figure​ ​4​ ​Copernicus​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​Data Figure​ ​5A Figure​ ​5B Figure​ ​5C Reported​ ​droughts​ ​in​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America. Two​ ​lakes​ ​ ​in​ ​Guatemala​ ​in​ ​risk​ ​of​ ​disappear.​ ​ ​One​ ​on​ ​the​ ​Southeastern​ ​part​ ​and​ ​the other​ ​on​ ​the​ ​Western​ ​HighLand​ ​of​ ​the​ ​Country. The​ ​first​ ​lake​ ​is​ ​the​ ​Atescatnempa.​ ​ ​According​ ​with​ ​this​ ​article​ ​in​ ​National​ ​Geographic published​ ​in​ ​May,​ ​2017,​ ​this​ ​lake​ ​disappeared.​ ​Source: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/05/lake-atescatempa-guatemala-drought-el-nino-vide o/ The​ ​rainy​ ​season​ ​in​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​is​ ​during​ ​the​ ​months​ ​of​ ​May​ ​thru​ ​October.​ ​ ​Looking the​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​for​ ​the​ ​region​ ​of​ ​Atescatempa​ ​Lake​ ​in​ ​Guatemala.​ ​ ​Notice​ ​that comparing​ ​index​ ​for​ ​May,​ ​June​ ​and​ ​July​ ​for​ ​2010,​ ​2011,​ ​2012​ ​and​ ​2013​ ​with​ ​these​ ​months​ ​for 2014,​ ​2015​ ​and​ ​2016,​ ​it​ ​shows​ ​the​ ​drop​ ​on​ ​soil​ ​moisture. Figure​ ​6 Figure​ ​7:​​ ​Area​ ​of​ ​the​ ​Atescatempa​ ​Lake​ ​in​ ​Guatemala The​ ​other​ ​affected​ ​lake​ ​in​ ​Guatemala​ ​is​ ​La​ ​Estancia​ ​in​ ​the​ ​Western​ ​HighLands​ ​of Guatemala.​ ​ ​The​ ​data​ ​from​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​for​ ​this​ ​area​ ​shows​ ​again​ ​that​ ​the​ ​worst​ ​drought started​ ​on​ ​July​ ​2014​ ​and​ ​ended​ ​on​ ​June,​ ​2017. Figure​ ​8. Figure​ ​9​.​ ​La​ ​Estancia​ ​Lake​ ​in​ ​Western​ ​Highlands​ ​in​ ​Guatemala. Rust​ ​epidemic​ ​affects​ ​Guatemala​ ​Prime​ ​Coffee Since​ ​2012​ ​the​ ​prime​ ​coffee​ ​of​ ​Guatemala​ ​has​ ​been​ ​affected.​ ​ ​One​ ​probably​ ​reason​ ​is the​ ​high​ ​temperatures​ ​and​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​rains​ ​in​ ​coffee​ ​plantations​ ​areas.​ ​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​for​ ​the following​ ​coffee​ ​plantation​ ​areas​ ​shows​ ​what​ ​is​ ​the​ ​rain​ ​ ​behaviour.​ ​ ​Coffee​ ​plantations​ ​needs the​ ​May​ ​rains​ ​to​ ​blossom.​ ​ ​Source: http://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2014/07/28/-/rust-devastates-guatemalas-prime-c offee-crop-and-its-farmers The​ ​Soil​ ​Water​ ​Index​ ​shows​ ​a​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​soil​ ​moisture​ ​for​ ​the​ ​coffee​ ​plantations​ ​areas: a) Huehuetenango:​ ​ ​July,​ ​2014​ ​to​ ​July,​ ​2016. b) Antigua​ ​Guatemala:​ ​July,​ ​2014​ ​to​ ​May,​ ​2016. c) Santa​ ​Rosa:​ ​ ​July,​ ​2014​ ​to​ ​July​ ​2016. d) Alta​ ​Verapaz:​ ​July,​ ​2014​ ​to​ ​May,​ ​2016. Figure​ ​10 Coffee​ ​plantations areas: -Huehuetenango -San​ ​Marcos -Antigua Guatemala, Sacatepéquez -Alta​ ​Verapaz -Santa​ ​Rosa Figure​ ​11 Figure​ ​12 Figure​ ​13 Figure​ ​14 Soil​ ​Moisture​ ​for​ ​Mayan​ ​Biosphere,​ ​Guatemala​ ​South​ ​Coast​ ​and​ ​all​ ​the​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle of​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​(Guatemala,​ ​El​ ​Salvador,​ ​Honduras) The​ ​Mayan​ ​Biosphere​ ​is​ ​very​ ​important​ ​for​ ​nature​ ​diversity.​ ​ ​The​ ​South​ ​Coast​ ​of Guatemala​ ​is​ ​one​ ​of​ ​the​ ​most​ ​moisture​ ​areas​ ​so​ ​it​ ​is​ ​important​ ​to​ ​see​ ​the​ ​effects​ ​of​ ​low​ ​rains. The​ ​Mayan​ ​Biosphere​ ​shows​ ​a​ ​low​ ​rainfall​ ​from​ ​May,2015​ ​to​ ​May​ ​2016. The​ ​Southern​ ​Coast​ ​of​ ​Guatemala​ ​shows​ ​low​ ​rainfall​ ​from​ ​July,2014​ ​to​ ​July,​ ​2016. In​ ​general,​ ​the​ ​Northern​ ​Triangle​ ​of​ ​Central​ ​America​ ​has​ ​a​ ​low​ ​rainfall​ ​index​ ​from July,2014​ ​to​ ​July​ ​2016. Figure​ ​15 Figure​ ​16 Figure​ ​17