Financial Model Sample
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis of Verisk Analytics, Inc
Nasdaq: VRSK
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
General Inputs
Company Name
Verisk Analytics, Inc
Ticker
VRSK
Exchange
NASDAQ
Circularity Breaker
1
1=Default; 0=Break Circularity
Legend for Color Scheme
Hard-coded inputs
Most Recent Quarter-end (MRQ)
3/31/2018
Formula linking to cells in same tab
Most Recent Year-end (MRY)
12/31/2017
Formula linking to cells in different tab
Accounting Number of Days
Portion of Current Year Remaining (%)
Sources
360
75.0%
VRSK financial filings, S&P Capital IQ
Key Financial Assumptions
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet:
Days Sales Outstanding
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
58.0
Capex/Revenue (%)
9.6%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
8.9%
73.9%
76.9%
79.9%
82.9%
85.9%
88.9%
91.9%
94.9%
97.9%
100.0%
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
98.2
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
Depreciation/Capex (%)
Days Payable Outstanding
Deferred Revenues/Total Revenues (%)
3-month Libor Curve
Short-term Debt Interest Rate
L + 1.625%
Cash Interest Rate
1.25%
Minimum Cash Balance
100.0
Income Statement:
Insurance Segment Revenue Growth Rate
9.3%
5.3%
5.3%
5.0%
4.8%
4.5%
4.3%
4.0%
3.8%
3.5%
Energy & Specialized Markets Revenue Growth Rate
15.0%
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
8.0%
7.5%
7.0%
6.5%
6.0%
5.5%
Financial Services Revenue Growth Rate
20.0%
15.0%
12.0%
11.5%
11.0%
10.5%
10.0%
9.5%
9.0%
8.5%
Gross Profit Margin (%)
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
SG&A/Revenue (%)
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
Effective Tax Rate (%)
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
21.1%
Additional Assumptions
- Capital expenditures for 2018FY projected at $230.0 million per recent management guidance; expenditures after 2018 occur at a fixed percentage of revenues (8.9%).
- Verisk is assumed to make no additional acquisitions nor any additional investments in intangible assets during the projected period; capital expenditures are assumed to be sufficient to support revenue growth.
- Senior notes are paid off at their respective maturities and additional long-term debt capacity is not added.
- Share repurchases are used to offset dilution from issuance of shares under existing equity incentive plans.
- Libor curve assumptions reflect an anticipated rising-rate environment through 2020 and flat for the projection period after 2020.
- Accounts Payable line item is projected using Days Payable Outstanding (i.e. Accrued Liabilities are assumed to be a small portion of total projected amounts).
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
2 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Cash, Equivalents, and AFS Securities
Accounts Receivable
$141.9
$138.5
$146.1
$158.6
$153.6
$153.3
$704.1
$1,584.5
$2,067.3
$2,738.6
$3,811.8
$4,968.4
$5,296.0
$6,608.8
$7,973.4
251.0
263.9
345.5
298.7
424.1
384.2
411.2
438.4
466.3
494.6
523.1
551.8
580.3
608.6
636.3
Prepaid Expenses
34.1
28.9
38.1
25.0
52.6
41.7
44.7
47.6
50.6
53.7
56.8
59.9
63.0
66.1
69.1
Income Taxes Receivable
48.6
49.3
28.8
3.3
8.1
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
28.8
129.0
20.3
39.1
28.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
70.2
$604.6
$500.9
$597.6
$513.8
$708.6
$678.2
$1,258.9
$2,169.6
$2,683.2
$3,385.9
$4,490.7
$5,679.1
$6,038.4
$7,382.5
$8,777.8
350.3
380.3
478.3
377.8
489.0
538.3
590.6
639.2
683.1
721.5
753.5
778.1
794.4
801.5
801.5
Intangible Assets
1,245.1
1,010.8
1,345.3
1,027.2
1,356.6
1,216.2
1,088.0
962.0
846.5
742.3
638.1
533.9
429.7
325.5
221.3
Goodwill
2,753.0
2,578.1
3,368.7
2,653.3
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
3,454.2
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Deferred Income Tax Assets
Other Assets
Total Assets
Accounts Payable and Accrued Liabilities
0.0
15.6
15.9
15.8
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
640.7
145.5
214.5
160.8
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
221.9
$5,593.7
$4,631.2
$6,020.3
$4,748.7
$6,246.9
$6,125.4
$6,630.3
$7,463.5
$7,905.5
$8,542.4
$9,575.0
$10,683.9
$10,955.2
$12,202.1
$13,493.3
222.1
184.0
225.4
162.1
223.8
250.0
258.7
283.7
293.2
318.7
328.5
354.2
363.9
389.1
398.2
Short-term Debt
874.8
106.8
724.4
6.6
740.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Deferred Revenues
340.9
330.8
384.7
501.6
586.6
428.4
458.5
488.9
519.9
551.5
583.3
615.3
647.1
678.6
709.5
Income Taxes Payable
00
0.0
00
0.0
31
3.1
21
2.1
68
6.8
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
31
3.1
Other Current Liabilities
41.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$1,479.3
$621.6
$1,337.6
$672.4
$1,558.1
$681.5
$720.3
$775.7
$816.3
$873.3
$915.0
$972.5
$1,014.1
$1,070.8
$1,110.8
2,270.9
2,280.2
2,284.4
2,281.0
2,041.1
2,290.6
2,041.1
2,041.1
1,592.8
1,245.6
1,245.6
1,245.6
354.4
354.4
354.4
329.2
322.2
337.8
329.4
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
356.5
Total Current Liabilities
Long-term Debt
Deferred Income Tax Liabilities
Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Stockholders’ Equity (Par Value)
Additional Paid-In Capital
Treasury Stock
Retained Earnings
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Losses
142.3
74.8
135.1
80.3
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
106.9
$4,221.7
$3,298.8
$4,094.9
$3,363.1
$4,062.6
$3,435.5
$3,224.8
$3,280.2
$2,872.5
$2,582.3
$2,624.0
$2,681.5
$1,831.9
$1,888.6
$1,928.6
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
2,023.4
2,121.6
2,180.1
2,134.1
2,201.9
2,240.0
2,299.3
2,358.6
2,417.9
2,477.2
2,536.5
2,595.8
2,655.1
2,714.4
2,773.7
(2,571.2)
(2,891.4)
(3,150.5)
(2,993.4)
(3,185.3)
(3,179.8)
(3,198.2)
(3,216.5)
(3,234.8)
(3,253.2)
(3,271.5)
(3,289.8)
(3,308.2)
(3,326.5)
(3,344.8)
2,161.7
2,752.9
3,308.0
2,861.7
3,476.9
3,939.0
4,613.6
5,350.4
6,159.2
7,045.2
7,995.3
9,005.6
10,085.6
11,234.8
12,445.1
(242.0)
(650.8)
(412.3)
(616.9)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
(309.3)
Total Equity
$1,372.0
$1,332.4
$1,925.4
$1,385.6
$2,184.3
$2,690.0
$3,405.5
$4,183.3
$5,033.0
$5,960.1
$6,951.1
$8,002.3
$9,123.3
$10,313.5
$11,564.7
Total Liabilities and Equity
$5,593.7
$4,631.2
$6,020.3
$4,748.7
$6,246.9
$6,125.4
$6,630.3
$7,463.5
$7,905.5
$8,542.4
$9,575.0
$10,683.9
$10,955.2
$12,202.1
$13,493.3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Balance check:
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
3 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Income Statement for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Revenues:
$1,330.6
$1,419.1
$1,550.6
$366.9
$412.6
$1,694.3
$1,783.5
$1,877.4
$1,971.6
$2,065.6
$2,158.9
$2,251.0
$2,341.4
$2,429.6
$2,515.0
Energy and Specialized Markets
Insurance
308.8
442.8
444.6
106.3
125.5
511.3
562.4
613.0
665.1
718.4
772.2
826.3
880.0
932.8
984.1
Financial Services
121.3
133.3
150.0
29.4
43.1
180.0
207.0
231.8
258.5
286.9
317.1
348.8
381.9
416.3
451.7
$1,760.7
$1,995.2
$2,145.2
$502.6
$581.2
$2,385.6
$2,552.9
$2,722.3
$2,895.3
$3,070.9
$3,248.2
$3,426.1
$3,603.3
$3,778.7
$3,950.8
Cost of Revenues
612.0
714.4
783.8
182.9
221.2
871.6
932.8
994.7
1,057.9
1,122.0
1,186.8
1,251.8
1,316.6
1,380.6
1,443.5
SG&A
278.3
301.6
322.8
75.9
91.8
365.5
391.2
417.2
443.7
470.6
497.7
525.0
552.1
579.0
605.4
Depreciation and Amortization (Fixed Assets)
96.6
119.1
135.6
33.8
40.5
170.0
174.1
192.9
212.8
233.9
256.1
279.2
303.2
328.1
350.4
Amortization (Intangible Assets)
70.4
92.5
101.8
22.3
33.2
129.1
128.2
126.0
115.5
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
$1,057.3
$1,227.6
$1,344.0
$314.9
$386.7
$1,536.2
$1,626.3
$1,730.7
$1,829.9
$1,930.7
$2,044.8
$2,160.2
$2,276.1
$2,391.9
$2,503.5
Operating Income
703.4
767.6
801.2
187.7
194.5
849.3
926.7
991.6
1,065.4
1,140.2
1,203.4
1,265.9
1,327.2
1,386.8
1,447.3
Investment Income (and other)
102.1
6.1
9.2
1.9
0.6
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
9.2
(28.4)
(32.8)
(80.9)
(67.0)
(49.5)
(26.4)
(8.5)
5.4
32.5
60.6
77.3
$1,280.5
$1,368.9
$1,456.6
$1,533.8
Total Revenues
Expenses:
Total Expenses
Interest Expense
(121.4)
(120.0)
(119.4)
Income Before Income Taxes
$684.1
$653.7
$691.0
Provision for Income Taxes
(196.6)
(202.2)
(135.9)
Net Income from Continuing Operations
$487.5
$451.5
$555.1
$108.8
Basic Net Income Per Share
$2.95
$2.68
$3.36
Diluted Net Income Per Share
$2.89
$2.64
$3.29
Basic
165.090
168.248
Diluted
168.451
171.172
$161.2
$754.2
$855.0
$933.8
(159.1)
(180.4)
(197.0)
(216.3)
(237.0)
(254.1)
$133.0
$595.1
$674.6
$736.8
$808.8
$886.1
$950.0
$1,010.3
$1,080.1
$1,149.2
$1,210.2
$0.65
$0.81
$3.61
$4.09
$4.46
$4.90
$5.37
$5.76
$6.12
$6.54
$6.96
$7.33
$0.64
$0.79
$3.52
$3.99
$4.36
$4.79
$5.24
$5.62
$5.98
$6.39
$6.80
$7.16
165.168
166.443
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
165.043
168.689
170.151
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
168.993
$1,010.3
$1,080.1
$1,149.2
$1,210.2
(52.4)
$162.3
(104.3)
(29.3)
$1,025.1
$1,123.0
$1,204.1
(270.2)
(288.8)
(307.3)
(323.6)
Earnings Per Share
Weighted average shares outstanding
EBITDA Schedule
$595.1
$674.6
$736.8
$808.8
$886.1
$950.0
Interest Expense/(income)
Earnings
104.3
80.9
67.0
49.5
26.4
8.5
Provision for Taxes
159.1
180.4
197.0
216.3
237.0
254.1
D&A
(5.4)
270.2
(32.5)
(60.6)
(77.3)
288.8
307.3
323.6
299.1
302.3
318.9
328.3
338.1
360.3
383.4
407.4
432.3
454.6
$1,157.6
$1,238.2
$1,319.7
$1,403.0
$1,487.5
$1,572.9
$1,658.5
$1,743.8
$1,828.2
$1,911.1
Revenue
$2,384.5
$2,552.4
$2,721.9
EBITDA
$1,130.9
$1,224.8
$1,305.9
$589.4
$645.3
$711.7
$3.50
$3.88
$4.34
EBITDA
$913.9
$1,004.7
$1,047.8
$245.7
$268.8
Consensus Analyst Estimates
Net Income (GAAP)
EPS (GAAP)
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
4 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Cash Flow Statement for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Net Income
$595.1
$674.6
$736.8
$808.8
$886.1
$950.0
$1,010.3
$1,080.1
$1,149.2
$1,210.2
+ Depreciation of Fixed Assets
170.0
174.1
192.9
212.8
233.9
256.1
279.2
303.2
328.1
350.4
+ Amortization of Intangible Assets
129.1
128.2
126.0
115.5
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
104.2
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
30.6
($38.7)
($27.0)
($27.3)
($27.9)
($28.3)
($28.6)
($28.6)
($28.5)
($28.2)
($27.7)
(3.6)
(2.9)
(3.0)
(3.0)
(3.1)
(3.1)
(3.1)
(3.1)
(3.1)
(3.0)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(31.1)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Deferred Income Tax Assets
(0.7)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other Assets
(7.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Accounts Payable
24.6
8.8
25.0
9.5
25.5
9.8
25.6
9.7
25.2
9.1
Deferred Revenues
43.7
30.1
30.4
31.1
31.5
31.8
31.9
31.8
31.5
30.9
Income Taxes Payable
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other Current Liabilities
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
18.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
+ Stock-based Compensation
Changes in:
Accounts Receivable
Prepaid Expenses
Income Taxes Receivable
Other Current Assets
Deferred Income Tax Liabilities
Other Liabilities
(28.2)
Cash Flow from Operations
$902.0
Capital Expenditures
(230.0)
Other Investments
Cash Flow from Investments
Short-term Debt Issuance/(Debt Paydown)
(85.5)
($315.5)
(724.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$1,016.4
$1,111.4
$1,177.4
$1,280.5
$1,350.9
$1,450.1
$1,528.0
$1,637.5
$1,704.6
(226.4)
0.0
($226.4)
(241.4)
0.0
($241.4)
(256.8)
0.0
($256.8)
0.0
($319.5)
(335.1)
0.0
($335.1)
(350.4)
0.0
($350.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(347.2)
0.0
0.0
(891.2)
0.0
0.0
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$1,364.6
(448.3)
Share Repurchases
(39.8)
(28.7)
(28.7)
Adjustments and Other Financing Activities (incl. Stock Options Exercised, etc.)
178.7
39.1
39.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
($303.8)
(319.5)
0.0
0.0
End of Period Cash
0.0
0.0
(249.5)
Beginning of Period Cash
($288.1)
(303.8)
0.0
0.0
Change in Cash
0.0
0.0
(Repayment) of Long-term Debt
($579.3)
($272.3)
(288.1)
0.0
6.2
Cash Flow from Financing
0.0
0.0
Issuance of Long-term Debt
Dividends
(272.3)
($239.1)
$10.4
($437.9)
($336.8)
($880.8)
0.0
$7.2
$550.9
$880.4
$482.7
$671.3
$1,073.2
$1,156.7
$327.6
$1,312.8
146.1
153.3
704.1
1,584.5
2,067.3
2,738.6
3,811.8
4,968.4
5,296.0
6,608.8
$153.3
$704.1
$1,584.5
$2,067.3
$2,738.6
$3,811.8
$4,968.4
$5,296.0
$6,608.8
$7,973.4
5 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet Schedules
Accounts Receivable
Days Sales Outstanding (using EOP AR)
Days Sales Outstanding (Using Average AR)
Memo: Average AR/Revenue (%)
$-
$-%
$-%
$298.7
$424.1
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
$41.7
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$44.7
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$47.6
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$50.6
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$53.7
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$56.8
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$59.9
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$63.0
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$66.1
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
$69.1
4.8%
11.4%
3.4%
Projected Prepaid Expenses As % of Cost of Revenue
Projected Prepaid Expenses As % of SG&A
Projected Prepaid Expenses As % of Total Expenses (excl. D&A)
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
Projections: Prepaid Expenses
Scenario Selected:
As % of Cost of Revenue (1)
As % of SG&A (2)
As % of Total Expenses (excl. D&A) (3)
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
3.4%
4.8%
11.2%
3.4%
Projected Accounts Receivable (using EOP AR)
Projected Accounts Receivable (using Average AR)
Projections: Days Sales Outstanding
Scenario Selected:
End of Period (1)
Average (2)
1
Prepaid Expenses
Prepaid Expenses/Cost of Revenue (%)
Prepaid Expenses/SG&A (%)
Prepaid Expenses/Total Expenses (excl. D&A) (%)
$34.1
5.6%
12.3%
3.8%
$28.9
4.0%
9.6%
2.8%
$38.1
4.9%
11.8%
3.4%
$25.0
$52.6
3
Income Taxes Receivable
$48.6
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 12/31/2017
$49.3
$28.8
$3.3
$8.1
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
$28.8
Other Current Assets
$129.0
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$20.3
$39.1
$28.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$70.2
$-
(170.0)
$538.3
$-
(174.1)
$590.6
$-
(192.9)
$639.2
$-
(212.8)
$683.1
$-
(233.9)
$721.5
$-
(256.1)
$753.5
$-
(279.2)
$778.1
$-
(303.2)
$794.4
$-
(328.1)
$801.5
$-
(350.4)
$801.5
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
73.9%
8.9%
76.9%
3.0%
8.9%
79.9%
3.0%
8.9%
82.9%
3.0%
8.9%
85.9%
3.0%
8.9%
88.9%
3.0%
8.9%
91.9%
3.0%
8.9%
94.9%
3.0%
8.9%
97.9%
3.0%
8.9%
100.0%
2.1%
Fixed Assets (Beginning of Period)
+ Capex
- Depreciation
Fixed Assets (End of Period)
Depreciation
Capex
Capex/Revenue (%)
Depreciation/Capex
Projections: Capex/Revenue (%)
Projections: Depreciation/Capex (%)
Depreciation/Capex Steps:
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
$350.3
$380.3
$478.3
$377.8
$489.0
$-%
58.2%
$-%
76.1%
$-%
73.9%
$33.8
$40.5
6 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,345.3
0.0
(129.1)
$1,216.2
$1,216.2
0.0
(128.2)
$1,088.0
$1,088.0
0.0
(126.0)
$962.0
$962.0
0.0
(115.5)
$846.5
$846.5
0.0
(104.2)
$742.3
$742.3
0.0
(104.2)
$638.1
$638.1
0.0
(104.2)
$533.9
$533.9
0.0
(104.2)
$429.7
$429.7
0.0
(104.2)
$325.5
$325.5
0.0
(104.2)
$221.3
Balance Sheet Schedules (Continued)
Intangible Assets (Beginning of Period)
+ Investments in Intangible Assets
- Amortization
Intangible Assets (End of Period)
$1,245.1
$1,010.8
$1,345.3
$1,027.2
$1,356.6
$70.4
$92.5
$101.8
$22.3
$33.2
$129.1
$128.2
$126.0
$115.5
$104.2
$104.2
$104.2
$104.2
$104.2
$104.2
Goodwill
$2,753.0
$2,578.1
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$3,368.7
$2,653.3
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$3,454.2
$15.6
$15.9
$15.8
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
$16.6
Other Assets
$640.7
$145.5
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$214.5
$160.8
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
$221.9
Accounts Payable (and Accrued Liabilities)
Days Payable Outstanding (EOP)
Days Payable Outstanding (Average)
Memo: Average AP/Cost of Revenue
$-%
$162.1
$223.8
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-%
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
$428.4
$458.5
$488.9
$519.9
$551.5
$583.3
$615.3
$647.1
$678.6
$709.5
Amortization
Deferred Tax Assets
$0.0
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$-
$-%
Projected Accounts Payable (using EOP AP)
Projected Accounts Payable (using Average AP)
Projections: Days Payable Outstanding (EOP)
Scenario Selected:
End of Period (1)
Average (2)
Deferred Revenues
Deferred Revenues/Total Revenues
2
$-%
$-%
$-%
$501.6
$586.6
Projections: Deferred Revenue/Total Revenue
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
18.0%
$0.0
Income Taxes Payable
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 12/31/2017
$0.0
$3.1
$2.1
$6.8
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$3.1
$41.5
Other Current Liabilities
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$329.2
$322.2
Deferred Income Tax Liabilities
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$337.8
$329.4
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$356.5
$142.3
Other Liabilities
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$135.1
$80.3
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
$106.9
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
$74.8
7 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet Schedules (Continued)
Shareholders' Equity Schedule
Stockholders’ equity (Par Value)
$0.1
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$0.1
Additional Paid-In Capital
Beginning of Period
$57.5
$56.2
+ Stock Options Exercised
30.1
29.9
+ Stock-based Compensation
+ Other (incl. Employee Stock Purchase Plan and Restricted Stock Awards)
$2,023.4
$2,121.6
Ending Period
$0.1
$28.7
31.8
(2.0)
$2,180.1
$0.1
$2,134.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$2,201.9
$2,-
$2,240.0
$2,-
$2,299.3
$2,-
$2,358.6
$2,-
$2,417.9
$2,-
$2,477.2
$2,-
$2,536.5
$2,-
$2,595.8
$2,-
$2,655.1
$2,-
$2,714.4
$2,-
$2,773.7
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
$-
Projections: Stock Options Exercised
Projections: Stock-based Compensation
Projections: Other (incl. Employee Stock Purchase Plan and Restricted Stock Awards)
Treasury Stock
Beginning of Period
$120.5
+ Share Repurchases
(11.7)
- Stock Options Exercised
- Other (incl. Employee Stock Purchase Plan and Restricted Stock Lapses)
$2,571.2
Ending Period
$333.3
(10.2)
$2,891.4
$269.8
(9.2)
(1.5)
$3,150.5
$2,993.4
$3,185.3
Projections: Share Repurchases
Projections: Stock Options Exercised
Projections: Other (incl. Employee Stock Purchase Plan and Restricted Stock Lapses)
Retained Earnings
Beginning of Period
+ Net Income
+ Adj. Related to Topic 606 and ASU 2016-01
- Dividends
End of Period
$2,161.7
$2,752.9
$3,308.0
$2,861.7
$3,476.9
Projections: Dividends
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Losses
Beginning of Period
+ Other Comprehensive Income
- Adj. Related to Topic 606 and ASU 2016-01
End of Period
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
($242.0)
($650.8)
($412.3)
($616.9)
($309.3)
$3,-
(10.4)
(0.1)
$3,179.8
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,198.2
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,216.5
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,234.8
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,253.2
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,271.5
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,289.8
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,308.2
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,326.5
$3,-
(10.4)
0.0
$3,344.8
$39.8
(10.4)
(0.1)
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$28.7
(10.4)
0.0
$3,-
$3,939.0
$3,-
$4,613.6
$4,-
$5,350.4
$5,-
$6,159.2
$6,-
$7,045.2
$7,-
$7,995.3
$7,995.3
1,-
$9,005.6
$9,005.6
1,-
$10,085.6
$10,085.6
1,-
$11,234.8
$11,234.8
1,-
$12,445.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
($-
(0.7)
($309.3)
8 of 12
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
($-
($309.3)
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet Schedules (Continued)
Debt Schedule
Assumptions:
Short-term Debt Interest Rate
L + 1.625%
Cash Interest Rate
1.25%
Minimum Cash Balance
100.0
3-month Libor Curve Assumptions
2.34%
Cash Flow Available for Financing Activities
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
3.50%
$586.5
$790.0
$870.0
$920.7
$1,008.1
$1,062.8
$1,146.3
$1,208.4
$1,302.4
$1,354.2
Share Repurchases
(39.8)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
(28.7)
Adjustments and Other Financing Activities (incl. Stock Options Exercised, etc.)
178.7
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
39.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
146.1
153.3
704.1
1,584.5
2,067.3
2,738.6
3,811.8
4,968.4
5,296.0
6,608.8
Dividends
+ Beginning of Period Cash Balance
- Minimum Cash Balance
Cash Available for Debt Repayment
(100.0)
(100.0)
$771.5
$853.6
Long-term Debt Issuance
6.2
Long-term Debt (Repayment)
0.0
Excess Cash Available for Revolver
0.0
(249.5)
(100.0)
$1,-
(100.0)
$2,415.6
0.0
(448.3)
(100.0)
$2,985.8
0.0
(347.2)
(100.0)
$3,711.8
(100.0)
$4,868.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(100.0)
$6,087.2
0.0
(891.2)
(100.0)
$6,508.8
(100.0)
$7,873.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$777.7
$604.1
$1,484.5
$1,967.3
$2,638.6
$3,711.8
$4,868.4
$5,196.0
$6,508.8
$7,873.4
Beginning of Period
$724.4
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
Issuance/(Repayment)
(724.4)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
4.1%
4.6%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
Revolver/Short-term Debt Schedule
End of Period
$874.8
$106.8
$724.4
$6.6
Revolver Interest Rate
Interest Expense from Revolver/Short-term Debt
$491.4
$14.9
Long-term Debt
Outstanding as Outstanding as
of 12/31/2017 of 03/31/2018
Interest rate
Maturity Date
Senior Notes issued 5/15/2015
$890.9
$891.2
4.000%
2025
Senior Notes issued 5/15/2015
345.1
345.2
5.500%
2045
Senior Notes issued 9/12/2012
347.1
347.2
4.125%
2022
Senior Notes issued 12/8/2011
249.3
249.5
4.875%
2019
Senior Notes issued 4/6/2011
448.2
448.3
5.800%
3.8
9.2
$2,284.4
$2,290.6
Other (Leases and Issuance Costs)
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
NA
2021
NA
9 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
Interest rate
Maturity Date
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Balance Sheet Schedules (Continued)
Outstanding as Outstanding as
of 12/31/2017 of 03/31/2018
Projections: Senior Notes issued 5/15/2015 (4%)
Beginning of Period
+ Issuance
- Repayment
End of Period
$890.9
$891.2
4.000%
2025
Interest Expense
Projections: Senior Notes issued 5/15/2015 (5.5%)
Beginning of Period
+ Issuance
- Repayment
End of Period
$345.1
$345.2
5.500%
$347.1
$347.2
4.125%
$249.3
$249.5
4.875%
$448.2
$448.3
5.800%
$9.2
NA
NA
Total Long-term Debt
Total Interest Expense from Long-Term Debt
Cash Interest Income Schedule
Cash End of Period Balances
Interest Income
Total Net Interest Expense/(Income)
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
$141.9
$138.5
$146.1
$-
$891.2
$-
$891.2
$-
$891.2
$891.2
0.0
(891.2)
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$35.6
$35.6
$35.6
$35.6
$35.6
$35.6
$35.6
$17.8
$0.0
$0.0
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$-
$345.2
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$13.8
$-
$347.2
$-
$347.2
$-
$347.2
$-
$347.2
$347.2
0.0
(347.2)
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$13.9
$13.9
$13.9
$13.9
$6.9
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$-
$249.5
$249.5
0.0
(249.5)
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$0.0
0.0
0.0
$0.0
$10.0
$5.0
$0.0
$-
$448.3
$-
$448.3
$-
$448.3
$17.9
$17.9
$17.9
$9.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$0.0
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$2,-
$2,-
$2,-
$1,-
$1,-
$1,-
$1,-
$-
$-
$-
$153.3
1.9
$704.1
5.4
$1,-
$2,-
$2,-
$3,-
$4,-
$5,-
$6,-
$7,-
$104.3
$80.9
$67.0
$49.5
$26.4
$8.5
2021
Interest Expense
$3.8
Projections: Other (Leases and Issuance Costs)
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018
$-
$891.2
2019
Interest Expense
Projections: Senior Notes issued 4/6/2011
Beginning of Period
+ Issuance
- Repayment
End of Period
$-
$891.2
2022
Interest Expense
Projections: Senior Notes issued 12/8/2011
Beginning of Period
+ Issuance
- Repayment
End of Period
$-
$891.2
2045
Interest Expense
Projections: Senior Notes issued 9/12/2012
Beginning of Period
+ Issuance
- Repayment
End of Period
$-
$891.2
$158.6
$153.6
10 of 12
$448.3
0.0
(448.3)
$0.0
($5.4)
($32.5)
($60.6)
($77.3)
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
$1,330.6
$1,419.1
6.7%
71.1%
$1,550.6
9.3%
72.3%
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,694.3
9.3%
71.0%
$1,783.5
5.3%
69.9%
$1,877.4
5.3%
69.0%
$1,971.6
5.0%
68.1%
$2,065.6
4.8%
67.3%
$2,158.9
4.5%
66.5%
$2,251.0
4.3%
65.7%
$2,341.4
4.0%
65.0%
$2,429.6
3.8%
64.3%
$2,515.0
3.5%
63.7%
9.3%
5.3%
4.0%
5.3%
0.0%
5.0%
0.3%
4.8%
0.3%
4.5%
0.3%
4.3%
0.3%
4.0%
0.3%
3.8%
0.3%
3.5%
0.3%
$-%
21.4%
$-%
22.0%
$613.0
9.0%
22.5%
$665.1
8.5%
23.0%
$718.4
8.0%
23.4%
$772.2
7.5%
23.8%
$826.3
7.0%
24.1%
$880.0
6.5%
24.4%
$932.8
6.0%
24.7%
$984.1
5.5%
24.9%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
9.0%
1.0%
8.5%
0.5%
8.0%
0.5%
7.5%
0.5%
7.0%
0.5%
6.5%
0.5%
6.0%
0.5%
5.5%
0.5%
$-%
7.5%
$-%
8.1%
$-%
8.5%
$-%
8.9%
$-%
9.3%
$-%
9.8%
$-%
10.2%
$381.9
9.5%
10.6%
$416.3
9.0%
11.0%
$451.7
8.5%
11.4%
20.0%
15.0%
5.0%
12.0%
3.0%
11.5%
0.5%
11.0%
0.5%
10.5%
0.5%
10.0%
0.5%
9.5%
0.5%
9.0%
0.5%
8.5%
0.5%
$2,-%
100.0%
$2,552.9
7.0%
100.0%
$2,722.3
6.6%
100.0%
$2,895.3
6.4%
100.0%
$3,070.9
6.1%
100.0%
$3,248.2
5.8%
100.0%
$3,426.1
5.5%
100.0%
$3,603.3
5.2%
100.0%
$3,778.7
4.9%
100.0%
$3,950.8
4.6%
100.0%
2,-%
2,552.1
7.0%
2,721.9
6.7%
$-%
11.2%
$-%
7.0%
$-%
6.6%
$1,-%
6.4%
$1,-%
6.1%
$1,-%
5.8%
$1,-%
5.5%
$1,-%
5.2%
$1,-%
4.9%
$1,-%
4.6%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
$-%
13.2%
$-%
7.0%
$-%
6.6%
$-%
6.4%
$-%
6.1%
$-%
5.8%
$-%
5.5%
$-%
5.2%
$-%
4.9%
$-%
4.6%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
15.3%
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
$9.2
Income Statement Schedules
Revenues from Insurance Segment
Growth Rate (%)
Memo: Insurance Revenues/Total
75.6%
$-%
$-%
71.0%
Projections: Insurance Segment Growth Rate
Growth Rate Steps
Revenues from Energy and Specialized Markets Segmen
Growth Rate (%)
Memo: Energy Revenues/Total
$308.8
$-%
22.2%
17.5%
$444.6
0.4%
20.7%
$-%
$-%
21.6%
Projections: Energy Segment Growth Rate
Growth Rate Steps
Revenues from Financial Services Segment
Growth Rate (%)
Memo: Financial Services Revenues/Total
$121.3
$133.3
9.9%
6.7%
6.9%
$-%
7.0%
$29.4
5.8%
$43.1
46.6%
7.4%
Projections: Financial Services Segment Growth Rate
Growth Rate Steps
Total Revenues
Growth Rate (%)
Contribution % check
$1,-%
$1,-%
100.0%
$2,145.2
7.5%
100.0%
$-%
$-%
100.0%
Memo: Consensus Analyst Projections (Mean)
Implied Growth Rate (%)
Cost of Revenues
Gross Margin (%)
Memo: Growth Rate (%)
$-%
$-%
16.7%
$-%
9.7%
$-%
$-%
20.9%
Projections: Gross Margin
SG&A
SG&A/Revenue (%)
Memo: Growth Rate (%)
$-%
$-%
8.4%
$-%
7.0%
$75.9
15.1%
$91.8
15.8%
20.9%
$6.1
$9.2
$1.9
$0.6
($52.4)
32.5%
($29.3)
18.1%
Projections: SG&A/Revenue
$102.1
Investment Income (and other)
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 12/31/2017
Tax Schedule
Income Tax Expense
Effective Tax Rate
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
($-%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
21.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
(0.4%)
21.1%
EPS Analysis
WASO (basic) (millions-
WASO (diluted) (millions-
EPS (basic)
$2.95
$2.68
$3.36
$0.65
$0.81
$3.61
$4.09
$4.46
$4.90
EPS (diluted)
$2.89
$2.64
$3.29
$0.64
$0.79
$3.52
$3.99
$4.36
$4.79
Memo: Growth Rate (Diluted EPS)(%)
(8.9%)
24.8%
23.1%
7.0%
13.4%
9.2%
9.8%
Note: Projections assume no change from levels as of period ended 03/31/2018 (i.e. share repurchases are used to offset dilution from issuance of shares under existing equity incentive plans)
-
$5.37
$5.24
9.5%
-
$5.76
$5.62
7.2%
-
$6.12
$5.98
6.3%
-
$6.54
$6.39
6.9%
-
$6.96
$6.80
6.4%
-
$7.33
$7.16
5.3%
Federal Statutory Rate
State and Local Taxes, net of Fed Tax Benefit
Foreign Tax Differentials
Federal Tax Reform-deferred rate change
U.K. Legislative Change
Stock-based Compensation
Other
Effective Tax Rate
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
($-%
($-%
($-%
35.0%
2.6%
(6.8%)
0.0%
(2.1%)
0.0%
0.0%
28.7%
35.0%
2.7%
(4.7%)
0.0%
(1.0%)
0.0%
(1.1%)
30.9%
35.0%
2.6%
(2.1%)
(12.9%)
0.0%
(2.5%)
(0.4%)
19.7%
11 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo
Private and Confidential
Financial Statement Analysis for Verisk Analytics, Inc
Projected
Historical
Three Months Ended Mar. 31,
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
$ in millions, except share and per share amounts
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
Twelve Months Ended Dec. 31,
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
Key Financial Ratios
Growth Rates
Revenue
13.3%
7.5%
15.6%
11.2%
7.0%
6.6%
6.4%
6.1%
5.8%
5.5%
5.2%
4.9%
Revenue CAGR (10-year)
4.6%
6.3%
EBITDA
9.9%
4.3%
9.4%
10.5%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
6.0%
5.7%
5.4%
5.1%
4.8%
4.5%
9.1%
4.4%
3.6%
6.0%
9.1%
7.0%
7.4%
7.0%
5.5%
5.2%
4.8%
4.5%
4.4%
(7.4%)
22.9%
22.2%
7.2%
13.4%
9.2%
9.8%
9.5%
7.2%
6.3%
6.9%
6.4%
EBITDA CAGR (10-year)
6.2%
Operating Income
Operating Income CAGR (10-year)
6.1%
Net Income
Net Income CAGR (10-year)
5.3%
8.1%
Assets
(17.2%)
30.0%
31.5%
1.7%
8.2%
12.6%
5.9%
8.1%
12.1%
11.6%
2.5%
11.4%
10.6%
Equity
(2.9%)
44.5%
57.6%
39.7%
26.6%
22.8%
20.3%
18.4%
16.6%
15.1%
14.0%
13.0%
12.1%
64.2%
63.5%
61.9%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
63.5%
Margins
Gross Profit
65.2%
63.6%
EBITDA
51.9%
50.4%
48.8%
48.9%
46.2%
48.5%
48.5%
48.5%
48.5%
48.4%
48.4%
48.4%
48.4%
48.4%
48.4%
Operating
40.0%
38.5%
37.3%
37.3%
33.5%
35.6%
36.3%
36.4%
36.8%
37.1%
37.0%
36.9%
36.8%
36.7%
36.6%
Pre-tax Earnings
38.9%
32.8%
32.2%
32.1%
27.9%
31.6%
33.5%
34.3%
35.4%
36.6%
37.1%
37.4%
38.0%
38.5%
38.8%
Net Income
27.7%
22.6%
25.9%
21.6%
22.9%
24.9%
26.4%
27.1%
27.9%
28.9%
29.2%
29.5%
30.0%
30.4%
30.6%
Return on Average Equity
33.4%
34.1%
25.8%
22.1%
19.4%
17.6%
16.1%
14.7%
13.5%
12.6%
11.8%
11.1%
Return on Average Assets
8.8%
10.4%
9.8%
10.6%
10.5%
10.5%
10.8%
10.5%
10.0%
10.0%
9.9%
9.4%
Returns
Segment Revenue Contribution
Insurance Revenues/Total
75.6%
71.1%
72.3%
73.0%
71.0%
71.0%
69.9%
69.0%
68.1%
67.3%
66.5%
65.7%
65.0%
64.3%
63.7%
Energy & Specialized Markets Revenues/Total
17.5%
22.2%
20.7%
21.2%
21.6%
21.4%
22.0%
22.5%
23.0%
23.4%
23.8%
24.1%
24.4%
24.7%
24.9%
6.9%
6.7%
7.0%
5.8%
7.4%
7.5%
8.1%
8.5%
8.9%
9.3%
9.8%
10.2%
10.6%
11.0%
11.4%
Financial Services Revenues/Total
Leverage
Total Debt/EBITDA
3.4x
2.4x
2.9x
Debt/Total Capitalization
0.7x
0.6x
0.6x
VRSK-Financial Model_vF
0.6x
0.6x
2.0x
1.6x
1.5x
1.1x
0.8x
0.8x
0.8x
0.2x
0.2x
0.2x
0.5x
0.4x
0.3x
0.2x
0.2x
0.2x
0.1x
0.0x
0.0x
0.0x
12 of 12
Femi Ogunjumo