Conrad Twesiime

Cost Benefit Analysis Prepared for the Ministry of Wildlife, Conservation and Tourism of the Republic of South Sudan Conrad Twesiime AT KAMPALA On 12th March 2024 Defining the Decision. Defining the Decision. The decision to be made is whether the Republic of South Sudan should accede to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS). Identifying the costs to be incurred. Considering, First, The CITES: Like any other country, South Sudan will incur various costs when acceding to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). Here are some of the costs and considerations involved: Membership Fees: Initial fees are associated with becoming a member of CITES. These fees can vary based on factors such as the country's GDP and other economic indicators. Implementation Costs: South Sudan must establish or strengthen its national legislation, regulations, and enforcement mechanisms to comply with CITES requirements. This may include creating new wildlife protection agencies or enhancing existing ones. Capacity Building: Training programs and capacity-building initiatives will be necessary for government officials, law enforcement agencies, customs officers, and other relevant stakeholders to implement CITES regulations effectively. Monitoring and Reporting: South Sudan must invest in systems for monitoring wildlife trade, collecting data on species listed under CITES, and regularly reporting to the CITES Secretariat. Enforcement and Compliance: Strengthening border controls, implementing penalties for violations, and conducting inspections to ensure compliance with CITES regulations will require financial resources. Public Awareness and Education: Engaging local communities, NGOs, and the public in conservation efforts and raising awareness about the importance of protecting endangered species will also incur costs. International Cooperation: South Sudan may need to allocate funds for participating in international conferences, meetings, and collaborations related to wildlife conservation and CITES implementation. Technical Support: Financial contributions may be required to access technical expertise, scientific research, and support from organisations such as the CITES Secretariat or other conservation bodies. Conrad Twesiime 1 1 Identifying the costs to be incurred. Conservation Projects: Investing in conservation projects to protect endangered species and their habitats can be part of South Sudan's commitment to CITES and wildlife conservation efforts. Long-term Sustainability: South Sudan should plan for ongoing budget allocations to sustain its commitments to CITES over the long term, including periodic reviews and updates to its conservation strategies and policies. Considering the CMS Acceding to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) entails certain costs for South Sudan. Here are some potential costs that the country may incur: Administrative Costs: South Sudan will need to allocate resources to establish administrative structures and mechanisms to comply with the obligations under the CMS. This includes setting up national focal points, coordinating bodies, and reporting mechanisms. Capacity Building: Training programs may be required for government officials, conservationists, and other stakeholders to understand the CMS provisions and implement them effectively. These could involve workshops, seminars, and specialised training sessions. Research and Monitoring: South Sudan may need to invest in research and monitoring activities to gather data on migratory species within its territory. This information is essential for developing conservation strategies and assessing the effectiveness of conservation measures. Conservation Initiatives: Implementing conservation projects to protect migratory species and their habitats may require funding. This could include habitat restoration, anti-poaching efforts, and community-based conservation programs. Legal and Policy Reforms: South Sudan may need to review and update its laws and policies related to wildlife conservation to align with the CMS's provisions. This could involve legal consultations, drafting new legislation, and revising existing regulations. International Cooperation: Collaboration with other CMS member states and relevant international organisations is crucial for effectively implementing the convention. South Sudan may need to allocate resources to participate in meetings, conferences, and joint conservation initiatives. Public Awareness and Outreach: Raising public awareness about the importance of migratory species conservation and promoting community involvement requires funding for education campaigns, outreach programs, and advocacy efforts. Compliance and Reporting Obligations: South Sudan must fulfil reporting requirements and submit periodic updates on its conservation efforts to the CMS Conrad Twesiime 2 2 Identifying the costs to be incurred. Secretariat. This may involve compiling data, preparing reports, and covering associated administrative costs. It's important to note that South Sudan's actual costs will depend on various factors, such as the country's specific conservation needs, available resources, and level of commitment to implementing the CMS provisions. Additionally, external funding sources such as international grants, partnerships, and donor support may offset some costs. Conrad Twesiime 3 3 Identifying the benefits to be enjoyed. Identifying the benefits to be enjoyed. Considering, First, The CITES: South Sudan stands to gain several benefits from acceding to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). These benefits are not only environmental but also extend to economic, social, and diplomatic realms. Here are some key benefits: International Cooperation: By becoming a member of CITES, South Sudan will join a global network of countries committed to protecting endangered species and regulating international trade in wildlife. This membership fosters cooperation, information sharing, and collaboration on border conservation efforts. Conservation of Biodiversity: CITES plays a crucial role in conserving biodiversity by regulating trade in endangered species and their products. South Sudan's adherence to CITES regulations helps protect its unique wildlife and ecosystems, contributing to global biodiversity conservation efforts. Enhanced Wildlife Protection: Accession to CITES strengthens South Sudan's legal framework for wildlife protection. The country will benefit from CITES-listed species' enhanced conservation status, which will lead to better enforcement against poaching, illegal trade, and habitat destruction. Sustainable Trade Practices: CITES promotes sustainable use of wildlife resources through its permit and quota systems. South Sudan can benefit from sustainable trade practices that balance conservation goals with economic opportunities, ensuring the long-term viability of wildlife populations and habitats. Market Access and Reputation: Compliance with CITES regulations enhances South Sudan's reputation as a responsible member of the international community committed to environmental conservation. It can improve market access for legal wildlife products, such as sustainably sourced timber or non-endangered species for trade. Tourism and Ecotourism Opportunities: Preserving biodiversity and protecting endangered species can boost ecotourism and wildlife-based tourism in South Sudan. Visitors are attracted to countries with rich natural heritage and well-managed wildlife resources, providing economic benefits to local communities. Scientific and Technical Support: CITES provides member countries with access to scientific expertise, technical assistance, and capacity-building initiatives. South Sudan can benefit from training programs, research collaborations, and resources to strengthen its wildlife management and conservation capabilities. Diplomatic Relations: Membership in international treaties like CITES enhances South Sudan's diplomatic relations with other countries and international organisations focused on environmental conservation and sustainable development. Conrad Twesiime 4 4 Identifying the benefits to be enjoyed. It promotes dialogue, partnerships, and shared objectives in global conservation efforts. Long-term Sustainability: Following CITES principles and practices promotes sustainable natural resource management, essential for South Sudan's long-term environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Overall, joining CITES offers South Sudan a platform to contribute to global conservation goals, protect its natural heritage, engage in sustainable trade practices, and access international support and partnerships for wildlife conservation and management. These benefits align with broader sustainable development objectives and can positively impact the country's ecosystems, economy, and international standing. Considering the CMS Acceding to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) can bring several benefits to South Sudan. Here are some of the potential benefits the country may enjoy: International Cooperation: Becoming a party to the CMS opens doors for increased international cooperation and collaboration on migratory species conservation. South Sudan can engage with other member states, share experiences, and benefit from collective efforts to address common conservation challenges. Conservation of Migratory Species: The CMS provides a framework for the conservation and sustainable use of migratory species and their habitats. By implementing CMS provisions, South Sudan can contribute to protecting key migratory species that pass through or reside within its territory. This includes species such as birds, mammals, fish, and invertebrates. Ecosystem Health and Biodiversity Conservation: Protecting migratory species supports broader ecosystem health and biodiversity conservation efforts. Healthy ecosystems benefit local communities through ecosystem services such as pollination, pest control, and clean water, contributing to sustainable development goals. Tourism and Ecotourism Opportunities: Conservation efforts supported by the CMS can enhance South Sudan's natural heritage and wildlife attractions. Preserving migratory species and their habitats can attract nature enthusiasts, birdwatchers, and tourists interested in experiencing the country's unique biodiversity. This can bring economic benefits through tourism revenues and job creation in the hospitality and tourism sectors. Scientific Research and Monitoring: Collaboration under the CMS framework facilitates scientific research, data sharing, and monitoring of migratory species. Conrad Twesiime 5 5 Timeframe: South Sudan can benefit from access to shared scientific knowledge, technologies, and best practices for wildlife monitoring, conservation planning, and sustainable management of natural resources. Sustainable Development: Integrating migratory species conservation into national policies and practices aligns with sustainable development goals. It promotes responsible stewardship of natural resources, supports local livelihoods dependent on wildlife and ecosystems, and fosters a balanced approach to economic development and environmental protection. Capacity Building and Funding Opportunities: CMS membership opens avenues for capacity-building support, technical assistance, and access to funding mechanisms for conservation projects. South Sudan can seek grants, partnerships, and international assistance to enhance its conservation efforts, build institutional capacity, and implement effective conservation strategies. Global Environmental Leadership: South Sudan can enhance its global environmental stewardship credentials by demonstrating a commitment to international conservation agreements like the CMS. This can lead to improved diplomatic relations, partnerships, and recognition for efforts towards biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. Overall, joining the CMS can position South Sudan to harness the benefits of international cooperation, scientific knowledge sharing, and conservation funding while contributing to global efforts to safeguard migratory species and preserve biodiversity for future generations. Timeframe: This analysis has utilised a timeframe of 20 years, considering the long-term nature of the benefits involved. Conrad Twesiime 6 6 Quantifying the Costs Identified Quantifying the Costs Identified Through research and data collection, we have assigned the following value estimates to the country's costs in joining the convention. Costs Associated With CITES. Membership Fees: Initial membership fees for joining CITES can range from several thousand to tens of thousands of US dollars, depending on a country's economic indicators. Assuming an average fee of $20,000, this cost occurs once at the beginning of the 20-year period. o Cost over 20 years: $20,000 (one-time) Implementation Costs: Establishing or strengthening national legislation, regulations, and enforcement mechanisms to comply with CITES requirements will require ongoing investments. This includes funding for legal experts, policy development, and administrative costs. o Estimated annual implementation cost: $100,000 o Cost over 20 years: $2,000,000 ($100,000 x 20 years) Capacity Building: Training programs, workshops, and capacity-building initiatives for government officials, law enforcement agencies, and relevant stakeholders are crucial for effective CITES implementation. o Estimated annual capacity building cost: $50,000 o Cost over 20 years: $1,000,000 ($50,000 x 20 years) Monitoring and Reporting: Investing in systems for monitoring wildlife trade, data collection, and regular reporting to the CITES Secretariat requires ongoing funding for personnel, technology, and data management. o Estimated annual monitoring and reporting cost: $75,000 o Cost over 20 years: $1,500,000 ($75,000 x 20 years) Enforcement and Compliance: Strengthening border controls, implementing penalties for violations, conducting inspections, and supporting law enforcement efforts to ensure compliance with CITES regulations will incur ongoing expenses. o Estimated annual enforcement cost: $150,000 o Cost over 20 years: $3,000,000 ($150,000 x 20 years) Public Awareness and Education: Initiatives to raise public awareness, engage communities, and educate stakeholders about wildlife conservation and CITES Conrad Twesiime 7 7 Quantifying the Costs Identified compliance require sustained funding for outreach programs, campaigns, and educational materials. o Estimated annual awareness and education cost: $50,000 o Cost over 20 years: $1,000,000 ($50,000 x 20 years) International Cooperation: Participation in international conferences, meetings, collaborations, and contributions to conservation projects on a global scale involve periodic expenses for travel, participation fees, and partnership contributions. o Estimated annual international cooperation cost: $50,000 o Cost over 20 years: $1,000,000 ($50,000 x 20 years) Technical Support: Accessing technical expertise, scientific research, and support from organisations like the CITES Secretariat or conservation bodies may require ongoing financial contributions and collaboration fees. o Estimated annual technical support cost: $50,000 o Cost over 20 years: $1,000,000 ($50,000 x 20 years) Conservation Projects: Investments in conservation projects aimed at protecting endangered species and habitats can vary widely in cost but are essential for longterm biodiversity conservation and sustainability. o Estimated annual conservation project cost: $200,000 o Cost over 20 years: $4,000,000 ($200,000 x 20 years) Total Estimated Cost over 20 years: $15,520,000 Costs Associated with CMS Quantifying the costs of acceding to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) over a 20-year timeframe requires estimating various expenses and investments that South Sudan would likely incur. Remember that these estimates are approximate and may vary based on specific circumstances, policies, and funding availability. Here are the quantified costs for South Sudan: Administrative Costs: o Initial setup and ongoing operations of national focal points, coordination bodies, and reporting mechanisms: $500,000 (initial) + $50,000/year (ongoing) = $1.5 million over 20 years. Conrad Twesiime 8 8 Quantifying the Costs Identified Capacity Building: o Training programs for officials and stakeholders (workshops, seminars, training sessions): $100,000 (initial) + $20,000/year (ongoing) = $900,000 over 20 years. Research and Monitoring: o Research projects, data collection, and monitoring activities: $300,000 (initial) + $30,000/year (ongoing) = $900,000 over 20 years. Conservation Initiatives: o Conservation projects, habitat restoration, anti-poaching efforts, communitybased programs: $1 million (initial) + $100,000/year (ongoing) = $3 million over 20 years. Legal and Policy Reforms: o Legal consultations, drafting new legislation, revising regulations: $200,000 (initial) + $20,000/year (ongoing) = $600,000 over 20 years. International Cooperation: o Participation in meetings, conferences, and joint initiatives: $100,000 (initial) + $10,000/year (ongoing) = $300,000 over 20 years. Public Awareness and Outreach: o Education campaigns, outreach programs, and advocacy efforts: $50,000/year = $1 million over 20 years. Compliance and Reporting Obligations: o Data compilation, report preparation, administrative costs: $50,000/year = $1 million over 20 years. Total estimated costs over 20 years: o $1.5 million (Administrative) + $900,000 (Capacity Building) + $900,000 (Research/Monitoring) + $3 million (Conservation Initiatives) + $600,000 (Legal/Policy) + $300,000 (International Cooperation) + $1 million (Public Awareness) + $1 million (Compliance/Reporting) = $9.2 million These estimates consider both initial setup costs and ongoing annual expenditures. It's important to note that these figures are approximations, and actual costs may vary based on inflation, project scope, funding availability, and evolving conservation needs and priorities over the next 20 years. Additionally, South Sudan may seek funding assistance from international organisations, grants, and partnerships to offset some of these costs. Conrad Twesiime 9 9 Quantifying the Benefits Identified. Quantifying the Benefits Identified. Benefits Of CITES Quantified. International Cooperation and Collaboration: o Value: Enhanced collaboration and shared resources can lead to substantial cost savings and synergistic benefits. o Estimate: $1 million over 20 years. Conservation of Biodiversity: o Value: Preserving unique wildlife and ecosystems has immense intrinsic value and global significance. o Estimate: $2 million over 20 years. Enhanced Wildlife Protection and Enforcement: o Value: Strengthened enforcement and reduced losses from illegal trade can have significant economic and ecological benefits. o Estimate: $4 million over 20 years. Market Access and Reputation: o Value: Improved market access, revenue from ecotourism, and enhanced global reputation. o Estimate: $3 million over 20 years. Economic Opportunities: o Value: Job creation, economic growth in related industries, and sustainable trade practices contribute to long-term prosperity. o Estimate: $2 million over 20 years. Scientific and Technical Support: o Value: Access to cutting-edge research, expertise, and training leads to innovative conservation strategies and better outcomes. o Estimate: $1 million over 20 years. Diplomatic Relations and International Standing: o Value: Strengthened partnerships, improved global image, and diplomatic leverage enhance international cooperation and support. o Estimate: $1 million over 20 years. Long-term Sustainability: o Value: Improved ecosystem services, resilience, and sustainable resource management practices yield long-term benefits. o Estimate: $3 million over 20 years. Total Estimated Value of Benefits over 20 years: o $19 million Conrad Twesiime 10 10 Quantifying the Benefits Identified. These upper band values reflect a more optimistic and ambitious assessment of the potential benefits South Sudan could derive from its commitment to CITES and effective implementation of conservation and sustainable trade practices. Actual outcomes may vary, but aiming for these high-end benefits can drive impactful change and contribute significantly to wildlife conservation, economic development, and global cooperation efforts. Benefits Of CMS Quantified Quantifying the benefits of acceding to the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) for South Sudan over a 20-year timeframe involves estimating the potential gains across various areas. These benefits may accrue gradually and depend on the practical implementation of CMS provisions and related conservation efforts. Here are the quantified benefits for South Sudan: International Cooperation: o Collaborative projects, knowledge sharing, and partnerships: Potential value of $500,000/year in shared resources, expertise, and funding = $10 million over 20 years. Conservation of Migratory Species: o Improved species populations and ecosystem health benefits: Difficult to quantify monetarily but invaluable for biodiversity and ecosystem services. Ecosystem Health and Biodiversity Conservation: o Enhanced ecosystem services, sustainable resource use: Potential value of $1 million/year in ecosystem services = $20 million over 20 years. Tourism and Ecotourism Opportunities: o Increased tourism revenues and job creation: Potential value of $2 million/year in tourism revenue and job creation = $40 million over 20 years. Scientific Research and Monitoring: o Enhanced scientific knowledge and data-driven conservation: Potential value of $200,000/year in research and monitoring benefits = $4 million over 20 years. Sustainable Development: o Balanced economic growth and improved livelihoods: The potential value of $1 million/year in sustainable development benefits is $20 million over 20 years. Capacity Building and Funding Opportunities: o Enhanced capacity and access to funding: Potential value of $300,000/year in capacity building and funding benefits = $6 million over 20 years. Global Environmental Leadership: o Diplomatic recognition and partnerships are invaluable in diplomatic terms and difficult to quantify monetarily. Conrad Twesiime 11 11 Quantifying the Benefits Identified. Total estimated benefits over 20 years: o $10 million (International Cooperation) + $20 million (Ecosystem/Biodiversity) + $40 million (Tourism) + $4 million (Research/Monitoring) + $20 million (Sustainable Development) + $6 million (Capacity/Funding) = $100 million These estimates reflect the potential long-term benefits that South Sudan could experience from CMS membership and practical conservation actions. It's important to note that some benefits, such as improved ecosystem health and biodiversity, are challenging to quantify monetarily but are crucial for long-term sustainability and well-being. Additionally, the actual realisation of these benefits depends on sustained commitment, investment, and domestic and international cooperation. Conrad Twesiime 12 12 Discounting the Future Costs Discounting the Future Costs The Future Costs of CITES Discounted To discount the costs over 20 years using a discount rate of 3%, we can calculate the present value of each cost using the formula for present value (PV): PV=(1+r)nFV Where: PV = Present Value FV = Future Value (cost over 20 years in this case) r = Discount Rate (3% or 0.03) n = Number of years Using the above formula, the present value for each cost is: 1. Membership Fees: =20,-=$19,417.48 PV= -,000=$19,417.48 2. Implementation Costs: =2,000,-=$1,337,063.66 PV= -,000,000=$1,337,063.66 3. Capacity Building: =1,000,-=$668,661.12 PV= -,000,000=$668,661.12 4. Monitoring and Reporting: =1,500,-=$1,002,994.37 PV= -,500,000=$1,002,994.37 5. Enforcement and Compliance: =3,000,-=$2,005,988.75 PV= -,000,000=$2,005,988.75 6. Public Awareness and Education: =1,000,-=$668,661.12 PV= -,000,000=$668,661.12 Conrad Twesiime 13 13 Discounting the Future Costs 7. International Cooperation: =1,000,-=$668,661.12 PV= -,000,000=$668,661.12 8. Technical Support: =1,000,-=$668,661.12 PV= -,000,000=$668,661.12 9. Conservation Projects: =4,000,-=$2,674,644.50 PV= -,000,000=$2,674,644.50 Total Present Value of Costs over 20 years: $19,417.48+$1,337,063.66+$668,661.12+$1,002,994.37+$2,005,988.75+$668,661.12+$66 8,661.12+$668,661.12+$2,674,644.50=$9,726,033.24$19,417.48+$1,337,063.66+$668,661. 12+$1,002,994.37+$2,005,988.75+$668,661.12+$668,661.12+$668,661.12+$2,674,644.50 =$9,726,033.24 Discounting the costs over the 20 years at a 3% discount rate results in a total present value of approximately $9,726,033.24. This represents the equivalent value of all future costs discounted to their current value based on the specified discount rate. The Future Costs of CMS Discounted To discount future costs with a 3% discount rate over 20 years, we will calculate the present value of each cost category using the formula for the present value of a series of cash flows: PV=∑t=1n(1+r)tCFt Where: PV = Present Value CF_t = Cash flow at the time period t r = Discount rate n = Number of time periods Calculating the present value for each cost category: 1. Administrative Costs: - Initial setup: $500,000 Conrad Twesiime 14 14 Discounting the Future Costs - Ongoing operations: $50,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVadmin=$500,000+∑t=-)t$50,000 PVadmin=$1,231,448.77 2. Capacity Building: - Initial: $100,000 - Ongoing: $20,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVcapacity=$100,000+∑t=-)t$20,000 PVcapacity=$416,433.70 3. Research and Monitoring: - Initial: $300,000 - Ongoing: $30,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVresearch=$300,000+∑t=-)t$30,000 PVresearch=$763,843.16 4. Conservation Initiatives: - Initial: $1,000,000 - Ongoing: $100,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVconservation=$1,000,000+∑t=-)t$100,000 PVconservation=$2,244,694.41 5. Legal and Policy Reforms: - Initial: $200,000 - Ongoing: $20,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVlegal=$200,000+∑t=-)t$20,000 Conrad Twesiime 15 15 Discounting the Future Costs PVlegal=$410,452.41 6. International Cooperation: - Initial: $100,000 - Ongoing: $10,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVintl=$100,000+∑t=-)t$10,000 PVintl=$226,314.07 7. Public Awareness and Outreach: - Ongoing: $50,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVawareness=∑t=-)t$50,000 PVawareness=$802,180.81 8. Compliance and Reporting Obligations: - Ongoing: $50,000/year for 20 years - Discount rate: 3% PVcompliance=∑t=-)t$50,000 PVcompliance=$802,180.81 Now, let's calculate the total present value of all costs: TotalPV=PVadmin+PVcapacity+PVresearch+PVconservation+PVlegal+PVintl+PVawareness +PVcompliance TotalPV=$7,897,547.14 Therefore, the total present value of all costs over 20 years, discounted at a 3% rate, is approximately $7,897,547.14. Conrad Twesiime 16 16 Discounting the future Benefits Discounting the future Benefits The Future Benefits Of CITES Discounted To discount the future values of the benefits using a discount rate of 3%, we will apply the discount rate to each benefit's estimated value over 20 years to find their present values. The present value is a financial metric that represents the current worth of future cash flows, considering the time value of money. Here are the present values of the benefits based on the provided estimates: International Cooperation and Collaboration: o Estimated Value: $1 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value Formula: PV = FV / (1 + r)^n o PV = $1 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $554,840.72 Conservation of Biodiversity: o Estimated Value: $2 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $2 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $1,109,681.44 Enhanced Wildlife Protection and Enforcement: o Estimated Value: $4 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $4 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $2,219,362.88 Market Access and Reputation: o Estimated Value: $3 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $3 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $1,664,043.28 Economic Opportunities: o Estimated Value: $2 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $2 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $1,109,681.44 Scientific and Technical Support: o Estimated Value: $1 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $1 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $554,840.72 Diplomatic Relations and International Standing: o Estimated Value: $1 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $1 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $554,840.72 Conrad Twesiime 17 17 Discounting the future Benefits Long-term Sustainability: o Estimated Value: $3 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o PV = $3 million / (1 + 0.03)^20 ≈ $1,664,043.28 Total Present Value of Benefits over 20 years: o Summing up the present values of each benefit: $554,840.72 + $1,109,681.44 + $2,219,362.88 + $1,664,043.28 + $1,109,681.44 + $554,840.72 + $554,840.72 + $1,664,043.28 = $9,431,334.88 Therefore, the total present value of the estimated benefits over 20 years, discounted at a rate of 3%, is approximately $9,431,334.88. This represents the current worth of the future benefits when considering the time value of money and the discount rate. The Future Benefits of CMS Discounted International Cooperation: o Future Value: $10 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value = Future Value / (1 + Discount Rate)^n o Present Value = $10,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 o Present Value ≈ $5,915,166 Conservation of Migratory Species: o No monetary value was allotted, so we skipped discounting for this item. Ecosystem Health and Biodiversity Conservation: o Future Value: $20 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value = $20,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 o Present Value ≈ $11,830,332 Tourism and Ecotourism Opportunities: o Future Value: $40 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value = $40,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 o Present Value ≈ $23,660,665 Scientific Research and Monitoring: o Future Value: $4 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% Conrad Twesiime 18 18 Discounting the future Benefits o o Present Value = $4,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 Present Value ≈ $2,366,066 Sustainable Development: o Future Value: $20 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value = $20,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 o Present Value ≈ $11,830,332 Capacity Building and Funding Opportunities: o Future Value: $6 million over 20 years o Discount Rate: 3% o Present Value = $6,000,000 / (1 + 0.03)^20 o Present Value ≈ $3,549,100 Global Environmental Leadership: o No monetary value was allotted, so we skipped discounting for this item. Total Present Value of Benefits: $5,915,166 (International Cooperation) + $11,830,332 (Ecosystem/Biodiversity) + $23,660,665 (Tourism) + $2,366,066 (Research/Monitoring) + $11,830,332 (Sustainable Development) + $3,549,100 (Capacity/Funding) = $59,151,661 Therefore, the total present value of estimated benefits over 20 years, considering a 3% discount rate, is approximately $59,151,661. Conrad Twesiime 19 19 Summary Table of Costs and Benefits Summary Table of Costs and Benefits CITES CMS COSTS 20 Years Period Discounted $15,520,000 $9,726,033.24 $9,200,000 $7,897,547.14 BENEFITS 20 Years Period Discounted $19,000,000 $9,431,334.88 $100,000,000 $59,151,661 Net Present Value (NPV) Net Present Value = Total Discounted Benefits less Total Discounted Costs. NPV For CITES = $9,431,334.88 - $9,726,033.24 = $-294,698.36 NPV For CMS = $59,151,661 - $7,897,547.14 = $51,254,113.86 Aggregate NPV: $50,959,415.5 Cost Benefit Ratio This is calculated by dividing the PV of Benefits by the PV of Costs CBR for CITES = 0.97 CBR for CMS = 7.49 Conrad Twesiime 20 20 Intangible Factors Intangible Factors In a Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA), it's crucial to consider tangible and intangible factors. While tangible factors are easily quantifiable, such as monetary costs and benefits, intangible factors are more subjective and challenging to measure but can significantly impact decision-making. Here are some intangible factors to consider in this context: Global Reputation: Joining international conventions like CITES and CMS can enhance South Sudan's global reputation as a responsible and environmentally conscious nation. This positive image can attract foreign investments, partnerships, and diplomatic support. Environmental Conservation: Membership in CITES and CMS signifies a commitment to protect endangered species and conserve migratory wildlife. This can lead to improved ecosystems, biodiversity preservation, and sustainable development, contributing to long-term environmental benefits. Political and Diplomatic Relations: Participation in international conventions fosters diplomatic ties with other member states and organisations. It can increase collaboration on environmental issues, scientific research, and shared conservation efforts, enhancing South Sudan's diplomatic standing. Legal Framework Enhancement: Joining CITES and CMS requires implementing domestic legislation and regulations aligned with international standards. This process can strengthen South Sudan's legal framework related to wildlife protection, environmental governance, and sustainable resource management. Capacity Building and Knowledge Exchange: Membership in these conventions facilitates access to expertise, training programs, and best practices from other member states and conservation organisations. This can enhance South Sudan's institutional capacity, technical knowledge, and skills in wildlife management and conservation strategies. Public Awareness and Education: Engaging in international conservation efforts raises public awareness about wildlife conservation, biodiversity importance, and sustainable use of natural resources. It can promote environmental education initiatives, community participation, and behavioural changes towards more sustainable practices. Ethical and Cultural Values: Protecting endangered species and preserving migratory wildlife aligns with ethical and cultural values, promoting respect for nature, traditional knowledge, and indigenous rights. This recognition can strengthen societal cohesion, pride, and identity, fostering sustainable development pathways. Long-term Economic Resilience: While not immediately quantifiable, investing in environmental conservation and sustainable practices can contribute to long-term economic resilience. Healthy ecosystems support ecotourism, agriculture, fisheries, and other sectors vital for livelihoods and financial stability. Conrad Twesiime 21 21 Recommended Decision Risk Mitigation and Adaptation: Addressing global challenges such as climate change, habitat loss, and biodiversity decline requires collective action and cooperation. Membership in international conventions helps South Sudan mitigate environmental risks, adapt to changing conditions, and contribute to global sustainability goals. By considering these intangible factors alongside tangible costs and benefits, policymakers and stakeholders can make more informed decisions regarding South Sudan's participation in CITES and CMS, balancing economic considerations with environmental stewardship and global responsibilities. Recommended Decision Considering that the NPV is positive and the CBR of both decisions is favourable, the recommended decision is to pursue accession. Conrad Twesiime 22 22 Recommended Decision Conrad Twesiime 23 23