Ten bubble players likely to make Tour Championship
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With moving day starting at Aronimink, the pressure is on the make the top 30 for the rights to play for the FedEx Cup championship in two weeks at East Lake.
The FedEx Cup's top 20 players have already qualified for the TOUR Championship. Leaving only ten spots left, a strong finish this week is going to be necessary to secure a spot in the final event for those on the bubble.
The BMW championship is a no cut event, meaning that everyone who is playing this weekend will need to put together a strong four rounds. There'll be no sneaking into the cut to get guaranteed points this week. A slow start? You will be able to make up for it by putting together a good Saturday and Sunday.
Watching the leaderboard all weekend will be more interesting than normal, as something as simple as climbing to 35th place would be all it takes for certain players. A bad first or second round could be nullified by a great third or fourth, something that wouldn’t normally be possible.
Low scores have already been put on the board Thursday and Friday. With scoring conditions setup for the players, there will continue to be big movers throughout the rest of the weekend. Kevin Na stands out and (spoiler alert) he will be on one of the slides in this article. Shooting 62 for -8, Na jumped up to find himself five shots off the lead.
Let's go ahead and take a look at the players who are most likely to fill out the top 30 heading in to East Lake.
NEXT: No. 10 Patton Kizzire
10
PATTON KIZZIRE
FedEx Cup Ranking: 21st, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Win (OHL Classic, Sony Open)
Patton Kizzire is currently ranked No. 21 in the FedEx Cup playoffs, and with the BMW Championship being a no-cut event, all he needs to do is finish out the four rounds this weekend. That's good news for him as well, as he is only -1 through two rounds, and currently tied for 57th.
On the season, Kizzire has won two events. He beat James Hahn in a playoff to win the Sony Open back in January. His first win was the OHL Classic at Mayakoba nearly a year ago at the start of the season.
It's been a rough go of it lately, with the early wins being the only thing keeping Kizzire's points so high. He missed nine of 13 cuts from early March through early August.
The best part of Kizzire's game this year has been his shots gained on approach shots, at .390. This puts him at 37th in the PGA this season.
The stats don't look great for Kizzire either. His driving accuracy is 175th on tour at 54.8%, and putting is 146th at 1.635 putts per hole. He's much better when he hits GIR, coming in at 61st on putting average. Even though he is guaranteed in with finishing his rounds, his poor performances of late leave him at No. 10 on this list.
NEXT: No. 9 C.T. Pan
9
C.T. PAN
FedEx Cup Ranking: 33rd, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Runner-up (Wyndham)
It's going to be a bit of an uphill battle for Pan. He's likely going to need to post a finish of at least top 12, and more likely inside the top ten to be safe to advance. He has started off well though, and is currently T24 after putting up back to back 67's.
Pan is a Chinese golfer who played his college ball at the University of Washington. Already one of the most successful male Chinese golfers, Pan is looking to continue to improve. He's catching fire at the right time as well.
His two top 10's on the season have come recently, with a 2nd place finish at the Wyndham, and a 4th place finish at the Dell. He hasn't missed a cut since June, and looks to be playing great golf at the right time.
His season has been wonderfully consistent in almost all aspects of his game. All of his shots gained statistics are positive, and he is 47th in tee to green with .580 shots gained. The area he has struggled in is putting. He comes in at 130th here, losing .059 shots.
If the putter comes around, and as long as Pan continues to find the green, watch out. He is currently 5th in GIR, at 70.98%.
NEXT: No. 8 Jordan Spieth
8
JORDAN SPIETH
FedEx Cup Ranking: 27th, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: 3rd (Houston Open, Masters)
Jordan Spieth is going to need to pick up his game over the weekend to make it to East Lake. A Disappointing +1 on Friday leaves him T47 heading into the weekend.
Last week at the Dell Championship, and at the PGA Championship as well, Spieth finished in 12th place. He has been on his game lately, and should be able to finish strongly at the BMW to make the trip to East Lake. He has been fantastic tee to green all year, 21st in golf at 1.016 shots gained.
In order to make it there, Spieth is going to need to figure out his putting. Its by far the worst aspect of his game in 2018, at -.031 shots gained, bad enough for 121st. He looks to be on the right path, jumping from 92nd in putts per round to 69th. If this path continues, Spieth will make the top 30.
With Spieth being on the Ryder Cup squad, it looks as if this has helped his confidence. With a trip to East Lake on the line, and the Ryder Cup one week later, Spieth should have a great weekend. Knowing that the high level competition in the FedEx Cup final will be a great precursor to the Ryder Cup should propel Spieth to shoot up this weekend's leader board.
NEXT: No. 7 Hideki Matsuyama
2018 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
7
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA
FedEx Cup Ranking: 28th, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: T-4 (Sentry, Dell Technologies Championship)
As long as Matsuyama finishes in the mid 20's, he is likely to make the top 30. He's sitting in a great spot currently, after shooting 66 and 64 the first two days.
Hideki has been very consistent on the year, finishing in the top 20 in 12 of the 19 tournaments that he has played in. He hasn't been able to find that next gear yet, failing to win in 2018, and only cracking the top 10 three times.
Hitting the greens hasn't been an issue this year for him. He currently sits 8th in GIR, at 68.3%. If the putter can catch up, Matsuyama will find himself fighting for a win. With 1.744 putts per hole, there is a lot of room for improvement. If he can do better off the tee, he should make a run this weekend. He's 18th in shots gained as a whole, but only 80th off the tee.
He looks to be heating up at the right time, as he is coming off a great tournament. The podium was in his sites, as he finished 4th at the Dell Technologies tournament last week. Heading into the weekend, a trip to East Lake seems locked up as Matsuyama is currently T3.
NEXT: No. 6 Xander Schauffele
6
XANDER SCHAUFFELE
FedEx Cup Ranking: 41st, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Runner-up (THE PLAYERS, The Open)
Xander Schauffele came into the BMW needing to put together a great tournament to make it to East Lake. He looks to be on the right path, as he currently leads the pack at -13, ahead of Justin Rose by two shots.
If he can keep it together through the weekend and not relinquish the lead, this will be his first win of the year. He has played fairly well all season, making the cut in 20 of 25 events. Watch him as he nears the dance floor. He is currently 127th around the green and 113th in shots gained putting this season, and that will make or break his weekend.
No one could be happier to see Schauffele at the top of the leaderboard than he is. It hasn't been going well for him lately. A 2nd place finish at The Open hinted at greatness, but his next four tournaments where a strong disappointment. 68th, 35th, a missed cut, and 49th led to him on the outside looking in heading into the BMW.
A great first two days, with 15 birdies and two bogies has put Schauffele in a strong position to make it into the top 30. That top 10 finish that he needed looks to be in his grasp.
NEXT: No. 5 Marc Leishman
5
MARC LEISHMAN
FedEx Cup Ranking: 22nd, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Runner-up (CJ Cup, Byron Nelson)
Nearly in the same situation as Patton Kizzire, Leishman only needed a top 50 finish to advance. A miserable Thursday put him in a position where he quickly needed to make up ground. Leishman was tied for last after Day 1 after shooting a 74.
Day two was better, and Leishman shot 66. He still is on the outside looking in, at T62. On the plus side, Friday was bogey free, and he needs another day like that over the weekend to get back to the top 50.
Somewhere Leishman can look to take advantage of is par 3's. Especially at Aronimink, where players have been struggling. He is 5th this season in average score on par 3's, at an even 3.00.
It's going to take some work for him to make it to the final event. Normally his worst two rounds, at least in 2018, are the ones on the weekend. Sunday's are miserable for him, as he comes in at 71.26 on average, 140th on tour.
Leishman is looking to break into the winner's circle still in 2018. He has come close multiple times, finishing in the top 10 on six different occasions. He continues to put himself in good positions, ranking 39th in shots gained on the season.
NEXT: No. 4 Rory McIlroy
4
RORY MCILROY
FedEx Cup Ranking: 24th, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Win (Arnold Palmer Invitational)
Rory McIlroy hasn't played that often this year, only appearing in 16 tournaments. When he has played, though, he has done quite well. Rory finds himself with five top 10's out of the 12 tournaments he has made the cut in.
Only needing to finish in the top 40 or so, Rory came out eliminating any doubt over the first two days. Currently McIlroy is tied for 7th at -9, most of which came on a fantastic Thursday, where he had 10 birdies and just two bogeys for a 62.
Rory has been a monster of the tee this season. He leads golf in driving average, at 320.2. The accuracy is a different animal, as he is 167th, only hitting the fairway 55.38% of the time. He has still managed well, coming in 11th in shots gained off the tee.
With the Ryder Cup coming up soon, Rory's success their should carry over throughout the rest of the season. He has a great record at 9-6-4, and should look to that to help him fight for a win at the BMW.
Not satisfied with just making it to East Lake, a strong finish at the BMW will vault Rory into contention for the cup. Watch for Rory to finish out the weekend strong in the top five to make that a real possibility.
NEXT: No. 3 Tiger Woods
3
TIGER WOODS
FedEx Cup Ranking: 25th, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Runner-up (Valspar, PGA Championship)
Tiger came out looking like old Tiger Woods on Thursday. He shot a 29 on his first nine, and was -7 through ten holes. He finished -8 for the day, tied for first after shooting 62.
Woods looks to be back into golf shape, and ready to contend once again. Very similar to Rory, Tiger has played in 16 events, making the cut in 14 of them, with five top-tens as well.
Woods is still looking for his first win since the 2013 Bridgestone. A mediocre second day at the BMW finds Tiger 5 shots back. As has been his crux all year, the putting issues reared their head again on Friday. Tiger only made 31 feet and 4 inches of putts, and had his second worst shots gained of the year on the green, losing 3.57 shots.
What's going to make or break Tigers weekend is his play off the tee. He is negative .006 off the tee, 117th in golf. He has played well enough everywhere else; besides the average putting; to be 6th in shots gained total, at 1.553.
A great start to the tournament normally means great things for Tiger. With a strong showing on Saturday, watch for Tiger to be in the hunt Sunday to get that first win. Not only the win, but putting himself in a great spot for East Lake two weeks away.
NEXT: No. 2 Rickie Fowler
2
RICKIE FOWLER
FedEx Cup Ranking: 26th, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Runner-up (OHL Classic, Masters)
Rickie Fowler, like so many others on this list, is still hunting for his first 2018 win. The Hero World Challenge doesn't count as an official Tour win, although Rickie did come out on top in that tournament. He's come close multiple times, with two runner-up finishes (the OHL Classic and the Masters), as well as top-tens at the Sentry and the Memorial.
His scores this week have been very consistent. 11 birdies and one bogey find Fowler with back to back 65's. All he needed heading into the week was to finish in the top 25. Currently sitting T3, he looks to be safe.
Rickie has been consistent everwhere on the course. His best shots gained stat is tee to green at 22nd. His worst is 53rd, and is actually both putting and off the tee. The two 65's this week show the consistency. A good round by Rory, at the par 70 at Aronimink, could see Rory making a serious charge at 59.
Only three shots back of Xander Schauffele, Fowler should make a strong push this weekend. On a course where good scores are easily available, he should find himself in the featured group on Sunday.
NEXT: No. 1 Kevin Na
1
KEVIN NA
FedEx Cup Ranking: 23rd, Best 2018 PGA TOUR Finish: Win (A Military Tribute At The Greenbrier)
Kevin Na needs only to finish in the top 50 this week to advance to East Lake. Thursday was rough for him, as he shot even. That put him right around what he needed to advance. Na didn't want to leave it up to his competitors to decide if he would make the top 30.
He came out Friday and shot a 62, the best round of the day. He catapulted himself to T12, and looks to be in fine shape heading into the weekend.
If you're in the gallery near where a Na tee shot will land, watch out. He has been atrocious off the tee this season, sitting 168th in shots gained, at -.341. He makes up for it near the green, at a combined .840 near the green and putting.
Na has one win on the year already, having won the Military Tribute at Greenbrier in July. This goes along with four top 10's, which pushed Na into consideration for making it to East Lake.
After missing the cut last week at the Dell Technologies Championship, Na was going to need to turn it around. He looks to have done so with a fantastic Friday. Sitting 40 spots above where he needs to finish heading into the weekend, Kevin Na is the most likely player to make the last 10 available spots to East Lake for the last FedEx Cup event.