Arun F Xaviour

Why a 21-day lockdown may not be enough to curb the spread of COVID-19 in India The virus that causes COVID-19 is highly infectious. The rate at which it is spreading requires an extended lockdown period. While the central government says that there are no plans to keep 1.3 billion people in lockdown beyond April 15, a more detailed analysis shows that the lockdown will actually cause a surge in the number of infected people once the curb is lifted. This prediction was made by R Adhikari and Rajesh Singh from the Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics at the University of Cambridge based on mathematical calculations. Reasons Every day we let the disease run loose, we need more than one day to bring it under control. The disease has been spreading among the population for more than 21 days, so to bring it down we need more than 21 days of lockdown. When the lockdown was announced, many who were far away from their homes for work traveled back to their homeland carrying the disease with them, making contact tracing difficult, leading to community spread. Many even traveled to their states on foot possibly spreading the disease on the way when stopping for food or water. There has also been criticism that limited testing is hiding the true scale of the outbreak in India. India has a huge percentage of youth population and large numbers of three-generational families (3 generations living under one roof). Youth is more prone to the disease and bringing it home and spreading it to the older people who are at a higher risk of severe illness. What should be done The pandemic had more than 21 days to grow in our country, so it only makes sense that more than 21 days is necessary to bring it to the starting levels. According to R Adhikari and Rajesh Singh, the 21-day lockdown will help in reducing the number of infected people but not enough to prevent a resurgence. Forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic in India with mitigatory social distancing by R Adhikari and Rajesh Singh R Adhikari and Rajesh Singh’s paper predicts that a trio of three lockdowns, 21 days, 28 days and 18 days with two five day relaxations in between could help in bringing down the infection rate to a manageable level. An extended 49- day lockdown could also produce a similar result. The paper analyzes four scenarios: Scenario (a): We can see from the chart that the 21-day lockdown brings down the infection rate but the probability of a resurgence is pretty high. Scenario (b): 21 days lockdown followed by a relaxation of 5 days, which is immediately followed by 28 days of lockdown. The result is the same as scenario (a); the probability of resurgence is very high. Scenario (c): We can see that three consecutive lockdowns – 21 days, 28 days, and 18 days with a relaxation of 5 days in between effectively bring down the infection rate. Scenario (d): An extended 49-day lockdown produces the same result as scenario (c). What WE can do right now As a responsible citizen, we should stay indoors to help curb the spread of the disease. We all expect a miracle to happen and see the number of infectives go down drastically, but the government made the statement that the 21-day lockdown will not be extended. A record increase of 386 cases in the past 24 hours was reported in India, and the numbers are likely to go up because of low levels of testing and poor access to healthcare. Right now, let’s do our duty by staying indoors.